How Long Front Starters Can Stay There
Last week in Indy, among the top 10 finishers, 8 of which came from a top 10 starting spot. In fact, the entire top four starters of last Sunday’s Verizon 200 also finished in the top four in the end too.
Starting position matters and when you see names like Denny Hamlin, William Byron and Ty Gibbs taking 3 of the top 4 starting spots for Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen (3 p.m. ET, USA, MRN) the question now has to become – if they can stay there.
Saturday was Hamlin’s fourth pole of the season, 3 of which on road courses. In the other two poles on road courses this season, he not only didn’t win, he didn’t even finish in the top 10 either.
“I feel confident in the speed of my car,’’ said Hamlin, whose only NASCAR Cup Series road course win came at Watkins Glen in 2016 “I still think in the top-10 there’s maybe seven better road course drivers overall putting all the laps together and speed. But I think track position is the biggest factor over all that so it’s up to me to make sure I execute at the beginning of the race and then set the tone from there, have good pit stops, have good strategy and let’s see where we’re at.’’
Hamlin’s had four top four finishes in his last six Watkins Glen starts but on road courses in 2022, he came home 18th, 31st, 17th, 14th, 20th and 13th respectively and in 2023, it’s been 16th, 36th, 11th and 19th respectively.
For Byron, he was 22nd here a year ago and has had just 1 top 5 finish in the last 10 weeks. On road courses in 2023, he’s came home 5th, 14th, 13th, 14th.
In Gibbs’ case, he has finished 9th in two road races this season. However, do we see a 1st time winner on Sunday though?
Four NASCAR Cup Series drivers all-time have posted their first series career win at Watkins Glen International, and this weekend and someone like Ty Gibbs, a skilled road racer in his own right, is looking to become the fifth.
| First-Time Winners at WGI | Starting Pos. | Crew Chief | Date |
| Steve Park | 18 | Paul Andrews | Sunday, August 13, 2000 |
| Marcos Ambrose | 3 | Todd Parrott | Monday, August 15, 2011 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 6 | Brian Burns | Sunday, August 10, 2014 |
| Chase Elliott | 3 | Alan Gustafson | Sunday, August 5, 2018 |
“I feel like I prepare the same for every race and with my little experience in the Cup Series compared to these guys, I have to work really hard at it and try to just do the best I can and go win,’’ said Gibbs, who drives the No. 54 JGR Toyota.
“I was closer than I am now,’’ he said of losing points in the last couple weeks. “But it’s really cool and I’m very blessed to be in this position and I’ve got a great team around me and it would be great to make the Playoffs.
“I think you just go win or you somehow have great points days.”
New Winner?
Speaking of a new winner, do we get the 16th different driver to reach victory lane on Sunday? 3 drivers in the top 10 of the starting lineup are eyeing their 1st win of the season including 2 of the 3 their first wins ever at that.
Gibbs (4th), AJ Allmendinger (6th) and Corey LaJoie (10th) are eyeing wins. So is Bubba Wallace (12th), Daniel Suarez (14th), Chase Elliott (15th), Austin Dillon (16th), Austin Cindric (17th), Alex Bowman (18th), Justin Haley (20th), Brad Keselowski (24th), Todd Gilliland (25th), Chase Briscoe (26th), Aric Almirola (27th), Ryan Preece (30th), Erik Jones (31st), Harrison Burton (32nd), Kevin Harvick (33rd) and Ty Dillon (36th).
Elliott was understandably frustrated Saturday about his qualifying showing considering he’s ranked 19th in the standings with the top 16 advancing to the Playoffs. With two regular-season races remaining the former series champion will need to win a race to advance to his ninth-consecutive Playoffs.
“Unfortunate,’’ Elliott said of his qualifying run Saturday, noting he was very disappointed after having shown good pace in practice. Our prep coming in was really good. [Teammate] William [Byron] had a lot of pace there so that’s good, hopefully I can figure out how to drive the vehicle faster.
“It’s no one’s fault but mine that we’re in the spot we’re in. Hate it, but it is what it is and we’ll fight tomorrow to the last lap and hopefully something will fall our way.’’
Watkins Glen has been a productive venue for the 2021 champion. He won back-to-back races here in 2018-19; the 2018 victory his first ever at the NASCAR Cup Series level. His worst finish over the last four years is fourth. Unfortunately for him, fourth though won’t do it on Sunday either.
“Daytona, to show up there [next week] and it be a must-win situation is like going to Vegas and having to hit the nearest slot machine for the jackpot,’’ Elliott continued. “That’s just silly. To me, this is opportunity we have the most control over and didn’t have a very good start to the weekend so it puts you in a tough spot.”
The only two drivers really points racing into the wildcard spot is Bubba Wallace (starts 12th) and Daniel Suarez (14th). Wallace leads Suarez by 28 points for that final spot. They’re hopeful someone that has already won reaches victory lane if they can’t on Sunday.
It appeared as if Suárez was headed for that Playoff ticket at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course last weekend. He won pole position, led six of the 82 laps – and was up front all race – but a miscue on a pit stop cost him and was never able to seriously challenge winner Michael McDowell afterward.
Following the event Suárez said he had the “longest meeting ever” with his pit crew.
“That 23-second stop should have been 15-second and if it was, I would have won the race,’’ Suárez said, adding, “We failed at Indianapolis, but success comes from failure.
“I can tell you my pit crew is hungry, I’m hungry and my engineers are hungry. I can tell you we are in a good place to fight.’’
“The 99-team is ready for battle,’’ he added with a smile.
Brad Keselowski vs. Kevin Harvick
These two are hopeful that there’s not a new winner on Sunday because if not, each will clinch a spot into the postseason. Right now, Harvick is +145 and Keselowski +143. No one is catching either points wise over the next two weeks.
However, if someone below them wins, then 1 of which is on the bubble and the other 1 spot ahead going to Daytona. Which is why that 2 point gap between them is so big this weekend because you don’t want to go to Daytona 16th among 16 drivers in the playoff grid.
Keselowski starts 24th to Harvick being 33rd. Neither have a great shot at stage points but it’s Keselowski if anyone is going to score points that has the advantage.
If someone else new wins on Sunday and again next Saturday night in Daytona, then 1 of them would be out. In saying that, if someone above them wins this weekend, then both are in because even if someone new wins at Daytona, that’s 14 winners leaving 2 wildcard spots to the postseason. Which is why both have a lot at stake on Sunday between them. It’s a wild position to be in.
Clean Race?
Indy was miraculously clean last week with just 1 caution for 3 laps. We saw 77 straight laps in the end to the checkered. How will Watkins Glen look on Sunday?
It’s been clean in this stage era.
Since 2017, there’s been 3, 4, 4, 4, 5 cautions in this race. That’s 20 combined cautions with 10 of those being for stage breaks.
Watkins Glen has walls where Indy really doesn’t in places that matter so maybe that also changes things.
Strategy
As the regular season dwindles down, I’m watching strategy plays on Sunday. Without cautions for stage breaks and several drivers needing wins, how do these teams treat Sunday’s race? You can’t just play follow the leader as some teams are going to have to swing for the fences. By doing, it could make this race look strung out.
Last year and before, it was becoming the norm for teams to elect to pit right before the stage would end to give up points for track position. They don’t have that luxury anymore. They automatically knew when two cautions would fly so would plan accordingly. It took the strategy aspect out of these races.
I now like that strategy plays are back in the hands of the teams again and that these races won’t carry on forever. You now don’t know when cautions are coming and can open up when to pit and when not to do so.
So for those needing a win, you have to be aggressive and hope for a caution to save the day.
What if that caution doesn’t come?
Last year was the first time since 2016 that we had a caution inside of 20 to go. The first two stages last year went caution free. Since 2017, we’ve had just five natural cautions here.
Which sets up strategy plays for sure then.
Do teams short pit or long pit? Do you do the overcut or undercut? Can you pit with clean air in front of you entering and in front of you exiting. In and out laps are key too.
Strategy is open again and I love it.
Race Review Online 