TRACK: Watkins Glen International (2.454-mile road course). DISTANCE: 90 Laps — STAGE 1: 20 Laps, STAGE 2: 20 Laps, FINAL STAGE: 50 Laps, MILES (220.86 Miles)
TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS
- Chase Elliott’s two-year win streak came to an end in 2021. Kyle Larson has since picked up his own (2021-2022). Can he pull the hat trick on Sunday? The last driver to win three straight was Jeff Gordon (1997-1999). Mark Martin is the only other driver to accomplish that feat as he did so in 1993, 1994 and 1995.
- Hendrick Motorsports has won the last 4 races at Watkins Glen
- Counting Joe Gibbs Racing, them and HMS have combined to win each of the last 6 WGI races as well as 7 of the last 9 with 5 different drivers.
- Chevrolet is 1-for-4 on the season on the road courses (4 counting Indy). By comparison, Chevy went 5-for-6 last year on road courses and had won the final six road races in 2021 too.
- We know Ford’s were lagging on these tracks. They led four laps in COTA, two in Sonoma, none in Chicago but 54 in Indianapolis.
- Chevy led 29 of 75 laps in COTA, 25 of 110 in Sonoma, 32 of 78 in Chicago and 7 at Indy. Toyota’s by comparison led 42 of 75 in COTA, 84 of 110 in Sonoma, 46 of 78 in Chicago and 19 in Indy. So, who has the leg up between them?
Go Bowling at The Glen key stat (qualifying matters here)
- 11 of the last 12 winners have started in the top 3 Rows including the last 5 from the top 2 Rows.
- 16 of the last 18 have started in the top 10.
- Starting positions on road courses this season: 2nd (COTA), 8th (Sonoma), 3rd (Chicago), 1st (Indy).
Live In Race Betting Trends To Watch
- Don’t expect a late caution. Last year was the first time since 2016 that we had a caution inside of 20 to go. Last Sunday in Indy, we went 77 laps to the finish under green flag conditions.
- The first two stages last year went caution free.
- Without stage cautions this year, the eventual race winners finished: 23rd, 2nd, 3rd and 1st in Stage 1 and 1st, 7th, 4th and 2nd in Stage 2.
TRACK COMPARISONS
Out of all the road courses on the schedule, Watkins Glen really compares to none. It’s fast but it doesn’t have any real runoff space since there’s walls all the way around. It’s the Daytona or Talladega version of road courses. Typically big crashes here due to ARMCO barriers lining the track. A good combo of needing speed and handling. Some will elect for track position and forego stage points in the process.
Go Bowling at The Glen Favorites
Kyle Larson (+500)
The two-time defending Watkins Glen winner is back in hopes of being just the third driver to ever win three in-a-row here. The last driver to accomplish this feat was Jeff Gordon (1997-1999). Mark Martin is the only other driver to win three straight here as he did so in 1993, 1994 and 1995.
Larson’s last four Watkins Glen finishes are sixth, eighth, first and first respectively. He’s also finished 14th, eighth, fourth and eighth respectively on road courses in 2023 and has seven Top-10 finishes over the last 10 races as well.
He’ll roll off fifth on Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr. (+650)
He had five straight Top-10 finishes in Watkins Glen including four of which in the top three, come to an end with a 23rd place run last year. However, that’s all changed this season with a Sonoma win. In saying that, he was also only 17th (COTA), 32nd (Chicago) and seventh (Indianapolis) too. His other 5 road races run in 2022, he finished seventh, 26th, 13th, 21st and 17th. I do like that he has finished in the Top-7 in nine of the last 11 races though including five straight weeks. It’s trending to a win too. From third to seventh to second to seventh to…first? Notice a pattern over the last four weeks? He’s had the second most points accumulated on road courses this season too.
Tyler Reddick (+800)
He won at both Road America and Indy last year and COTA this year. However, he’s only finished 33rd, 28th and fourth on the other three road courses this season to go along with seventh here a year ago too. I do like that he’s starting to find ground again. He has three Top-6 finish in the last five weeks and if not for pit road, he’d have four. Can they execute? The speed is there. He’s tied for the third most points (103) and third most laps led (41) on road courses in 2023. He starts 8th.
Michael McDowell (+1000)
He’s won at Road America in the Xfinity Series and was 12th, seventh, seventh and first in four road races run this season. A true road racer by nature, McDowell has had four Top-6’s in six road course races run last season including being sixth here.
Can he really win two straight? We asked that about Buescher two weeks ago too. No one has as many points accumulated (131) on road courses this season than McDowell. He’ll come from 3rd.
AJ Allmendinger (+1200)
Needing a good finish, Allmendinger has the capability to win again here. While he has just one Top-15 on road courses this year, it was a sixth place run in Sonoma. He was runner-up in last year’s Watkins Glen race. He also has three runner-up finishes (2018, 2021, 2022) in his last four NXS starts here too. He was quickest in practice and qualified 6th. My only concern is that he lacked speed in Indy and it’s tough to just gain it one week later. Allmendinger has only scored 60 points on road races this season good enough for 19th. Still, he looks strong this weekend.
Go Bowling at The Glen Sleepers
Daniel Suarez (+1100)
While he won Sonoma a year ago and fifth here, Suarez has finished 27th, 22nd, 27th and third on these tracks in 2023 thus far. However, it’s that Top-5 last year and last week and sixth in Michigan that gives me reason to snag him. He qualified 14th.
Chris Buescher (+1800)
He’s been a vastly improved road racer including eighth, fourth, 10th and 11th respectively on these courses this season.
His last five road course finishes last year read: second (Sonoma), sixth (Road America), 10th (Indianapolis), ninth (Watkins Glen) and sixth (Charlotte ROVAL). That’s nine straight Top-11’s and fifth most points scored (98) on them this season too. He qualified 12th.
Austin Cindric (+3000)
A road racer by nature is ready to win again. He placed sixth in two of the four road races this season and 13th here last year. He also has two straight Top-3 finishes in the Xfinity Series here too including a 2019 win. I’m wary about being 15th at Indy and not having a single Top-5 finish all season too but I needed a 5th sleeper..
Joey Logano (+4500)
His last five finishes at Watkins Glen are 24th, 37th, 23rd, 22nd and third respectively. While he was third in Sonoma, eighth in Chicago and 34th in Indy, he was also 28th in COTA. It’s just that third last year and Ford winning four straight races as why I think he could steal something. He starts 11th.
Ty Gibbs (+2500)
Worth a look for a driver that raced here last year and has a pair of ninth place finishes in four road races run this season. Especially since he starts 4th.
Go Bowling at The Glen Fades
Chase Elliott (+350)
He won two of the last four years in Watkins Glen with being runner-up (2021) and fourth (2022) in the others. Elliott didn’t race COTA this year but was fifth in Sonoma, third in Chicago and second in Indy this season. My only issue is, he’s also led only eight laps on these tracks all season and just 39 laps for the year. Hard for me to outright wager on the heavy favorite when he hasn’t won since Talladega (29 races ago) and starts just 15th.
Christopher Bell (+1000)
Was 31st in COTA, ninth in Sonoma, 18th in Chicago and ninth at Indy.. He was eighth last year and had a Top-2 car the year prior before a run-in with Kyle Larson. However, I keep saying this, his last Top-5 came in the Bristol Dirt Race (16 races ago). He’s also only scored the 13th most points on road courses this season too.
Kyle Busch (+1200)
He’s had five top seven results in his last seven Watkins Glen tries to go along with finishes of second, second, fifth and 36th on road course races this season too. He had a quick car at Indy before a mechanical issues while running solidly inside the Top-10. The only thing that scares me here is finishes of 36th, 21st, third, 37th and 36th the last five weeks.
Denny Hamlin (+2000)
He’s had four top four finishes in his last six Watkins Glen starts but on road courses in 2022, 18th, 31st, 17th, 14th, 20th and 13th respectively. He does have three poles now on these tracks in 2023, but his finishes also read 16th, 36th, 11th and 19th respectively too. He may be after strategy for stage wins and playoff points instead.
William Byron (+2200)
Fifth, 14th, 13th and 14th this year on these tracks. 22nd here a year ago too. Byron only has one Top-5 finish in the last 10 weeks.
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