A lot of the discussion has been on the playoffs and the cutline but one thing we’ve really neglected is the fight up top too. Right now, Martin Truex Jr. leads teammate Denny Hamlin by 60 points. William Byron is 104 points out which means Joe Gibbs Racing will go 1-2. But, in what order?

With Hamlin leading Byron by 46, he’s in the drivers seat for second. Can he catch Truex?

That’s going to be tough. Truex has 9 top 7 finishes in the last 11 races. Trends say he’ll win on Sunday alternating finishes between 3rd, 7th, 2nd, 7th…1st?

“Every single race is important,” said Martin Truex Jr. “I don’t know how anyone can say they don’t matter. We are looking at locking up 15 bonus points by trying to get the Regular Season Championship. It’s an opportunity to lock up a lot of bonus points and that’s what matters in the Playoffs. Every race is equally important. All 26 matter and all 26 can earn you points and do things that will help you in the Playoffs. For us, it’s business as usual and these races are all important.”

He had five straight Top-10 finishes in Watkins Glen including four of which in the top three, come to an end with a 23rd place run last year. They’re improved this season on road courses.

Hamlin had four top four finishes in his last six Watkins Glen starts but on road courses in 2022, 18th, 31st, 17th, 14th, 20th and 13th respectively. He does have two poles on these tracks in 2023, but his finishes read 16th, 36th, 11th and 19th respectively.

Byron meanwhile is struggling. He’s finished 5th, 14th, 13th and 14th this year on these tracks. 22nd here a year ago too. Byron only has one Top-5 finish in the last 10 weeks at that.

Though mathematically possible to not achieve the clinch this weekend, Truex’s likelihood of becoming the second driver to win multiple Regular Season Championships on Sunday is a decent possibility. If he accomplishes the feat, only Truex (2017 and 2023) and Kyle Busch (2018 and 2019) would have more than one. In total, only five drivers have won the NASCAR Cup Series Regular Season Championship – Truex (2017), Busch (2018, 2019), Kevin Harvick (2020), Kyle Larson (2021) and Chase Elliott (2022).

Then you have the bottom to watch next. Daniel Suarez lost 23 points from Michael McDowell’s Indy win. He did make up 29 points in Michigan though and has a 28 point gap to Bubba Wallace for the final spot.

While Suarez won Sonoma a year ago and fifth here, Suarez has finished 27th, 22nd, 27th and third on these tracks in 2023 thus far.

Wallace has two Top-10 finishes in his last five Watkins Glen starts and was just 21st, 31st, 33rd and 13th on road courses this season.

However, it’s that Top-5 last year from Suarez and last week too as well as that sixth in Michigan that gives me reason to think he can close that gap this weekend.

Harvick has had just 1 top five in his 15 Watkins Glen starts. This isn’t only a bad track for SHR overall, but they’re struggled on road courses this season too.

At COTA, they finished 13-15-30-32. In Sonoma it was 11-13-28-29. At Chicago, it was 12-15-20-20. For Indy, they went 6-23-31-39.

Last year, they finished 11-12-25-29 here.

These have also become one of Brad Keselowski’s worst tracks. He’s finished 35th, 16th, 24th and 20th on them this season. His last four finishes here are 15th, 17th, 9th, 35th and 19th respectively.

Which is why Harvick, Keselowski and Wallace could struggle to get inside the top 15 on Sunday but Suarez could be a contender for a win.

Same for Ty Gibbs (-49). He was +3 coming into Indy but lost a ton of points. However, 4 of his 12 career NASCAR wins have come on road courses including Indy last Saturday.

I’m also curious if AJ Allmendinger’s speed comes back. He went from -23 leaving Pocono to -87 leaving Indy. That’s a loss of 64 points over the last four races. He struggled to find speed in Indy and had a dismal weekend. He’s a past Watkins Glen winner and has 2 career wins – both on road courses. Can they find what they were lacking in Indy?

Alex Bowman was 14th, 14th, 20th and 14th in four WGI starts at HMS. On these tracks this season, he’s finished third, 15th, 37th and fifth respectively. I don’t expect much out of him.

I do of his teammate. Chase Elliott has won two of the last four years in Watkins Glen with being runner-up (2021) and fourth (2022) in the others. Elliott didn’t race COTA this year but was fifth in Sonoma, third in Chicago and second in Indy this season. He’s trending for a win.

Which is why points are going to be a thing to watch on Sunday on both ends of the spectrum.