INDIANAPOLIS — ?? will lead the field to green for Sunday’s Verizon 200 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, IMS Radio Network) for what could be third and final NASCAR Cup Series race on the 2.439-mile road course layout for at least the next few years.
Here are five things I’m watching for the 24th race of the 2023 season.
Late Race Antics
Last season, for the 2nd straight year, a car at the end of the race had an on track penalty while trying to go for the win. It created chaos.
In 2021, Chase Briscoe went off course on the final overtime restart but came back on and a battle for the win with Denny Hamlin ensued. Briscoe was penalized for it. He didn’t know. He made contact with Hamlin and ruined both of their race winning efforts.
It nearly happened again in the 2nd edition.
Ross Chastain tried to make a daring maneuver from 4th on the final restart to go for the lead. Chaos occurred. Chastain went off course by ignoring the turn and coming back on while battling with Tyler Reddick for the win. He too was penalized but didn’t know it until after he crossed the finish line and was doing post race interviews.
Can we not have this year making 3 straight years to where we have a car fighting for the win in the end but later get penalized?
What happens if Chastain and Reddick both wrecked last year going for the win like Hamlin and Briscoe did the year before? It could have ruined another race winning moment by a driver penalized.
That’s why something may need to be done and why I’m watching how this race ends on Sunday.
How Much Changes Will Help Or Hurt This Race
This year, we have the second year of this new Next Gen model but this being the fourth road course event of the season, how much does the 2022 package work in 2023, especially with the changes made?
That’s just the tip of the iceberg for what could make Sunday’s race look entirely different than the previous two years here.
The racing package is better, but it could also make this race spread out some too and that’s because of the recent rule change that we won’t stop for the stage breaks. While the stages remain the same, the racing action continues on and won’t come to a stop for a caution.
Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin said he has some concerns about doing away with the stage breaks and is eager to see how it will play out this weekend. He said he expected the race to be more physically challenging without the scheduled opportunity to pit and noted he planned to make a real effort to stay hydrated – anticipating it to be tougher physically overall for drivers.
“I think this thing has the potential of really getting strung out, a lot” Hamlin said. “If we do, I don’t want to hear any complaining because that’s the potential. … this will make for more strategy though.”
NASCAR started this stage format in 2017 as it rewards points for the top 10 finishers of the two stages. It’s done to make the drivers actually race from the onset of the green flag but also give fans a break to go to the bathroom or concession stand or if you’re at home, to walk away from the TV at the two stoppages.
However, most fans didn’t take to it like NASCAR thought they would. Many fans liked the idea of stages, but why not just continue on with the green flag action? Award points and if the flag was a green checkered like it was, doesn’t green mean, go?
Hence the change.
While it’s made a difference, how much of an impact will it have on Sunday?
It was becoming the norm for teams to elect to pit right before the stage would end to give up points for track position. They don’t have that luxury anymore. They automatically knew when two cautions would fly so would plan accordingly. It took the strategy aspect out of these races.
I now like that strategy plays are back in the hands of the teams again and that these races won’t carry on forever. You now don’t know when cautions are coming and can open up when to pit and when not to do so.
“Yeah, I mean, you’re going you go back to I mean, really pitting the race backwards,” Ryan Blaney told me on Saturday morning. “I think you can do this race in two stops. There was kind of a mixture of two stops last year and three stops.
“So yeah, I mean it just changed it you know, it’s back to the old form before the stage breaks. So if you can pin it backwards and the fastest cars are really going to show up, you know, because before when he had stage races in the you know, those the fastest cars, they would obviously probably flip the stage trying to set themselves up for the end and if you were a little bit off the pace, you could stay out try to get some stage points and then reacted from there.
“So that’s, you know, that’s just changed. So it benefits faster cars, which is good. So more traditional what it used to be not too long ago but you know, six, seven years ago.”
Blaney said he’s a fan of this move.
“You know, it just flips the whole field and I think it can get pretty difficult so I think the way to do it here on all road courses is the right way to do it,” he continued. “You know, have your have your stage points, but don’t throw the yellow because I think it makes more sense that way.”
Last year, none of the road course races saw a driver that had won the race finish in the points in Stage 1. It’s because they all had pit already. In Stage 2, they finished: 8th (COTA), 4th (Sonoma), 10th (Road America), no points (Indy) and 8th (Watkins Glen), no points (ROVAL).
Reddick played the similar role in Stage 1 in COTA this year but stayed out to take the stage win in the second one. Martin Truex Jr. was second in Stage 1 in Sonoma but pit and was seventh in Sonoma.
That luxury isn’t typically there anymore as someone could in theory run away with this thing which makes Hamlin’s point. They also could run away too far and you’re one caution away from flipping the field too.
Which makes me wonder what strategy these crew chiefs are going to elect to go for. How long do we expect the tires to hold up? Will they hold up for a full fuel run and if so, what is the fuel number?
Do teams short pit or long pit? Do you do the overcut or undercut? Can you pit with clean air in front of you entering and in front of you exiting. In and out laps are key too.
Strategy is open again and I love it. Let’s just hope it doesn’t become redundant.
International Flavor
Among the 40 cars competing here this weekend, some of them have some international flair. Shane van Gisbergen is back in the No. 91 Chevrolet for Trackhouse and Project 91. He shocked the world with an upset win in Chicago.
While most admitted that it should have been more speculated that he could do that, I mean he’s used to these types of cars on street courses to where the field wasn’t, it was still the first time in 60 years that a driver won in his NASCAR debut too.
How will he do in a second start?
He’ll more have international flavor with him this time too. Jenson Button is back in the No. 15 Ford for Rick Ware Racing. However, Kamui Kobayashi (No. 67 Toyota) and Brodie Kostecki (No. 33 Chevrolet) are also making their NASCAR debuts too.
Can they make a name for themselves like van Gisbergen did last month?
Kostecki is with RCR, the winning team from last year. Kobayashi has Tyler Reddick, the winner driver last year, as a teammate.
This group could compete on Sunday but I’m curious after van Gisbergen had a surprising advantage in Chicago, if these guys to on a more typical road course at Indy.
Most INDYCAR driver call this a very European like circuit which you’d think would favor these four too.
Which Manufacturer Is Best
Chevrolet is a perfect 2-for-2 here on the road course but just 1-for-3 this season on them. Is their advantage gone?
They went 5-for-6 on road courses last year and had won the final six road races in 2021 too.
Factor in the 2019 race at Watkins Glen (2 races in 2019) and the 2 races (Daytona, Charlotte) in 2020 and you get Chevy scoring 16 wins in the last 20 road course races in general.
Chevrolet has always had a leg up over the competition in Indianapolis anyhow. From the inaugural race in1994 through 2014, a bowtie was found in victory lane an astounding 16 times in a 21 year span including 12 straight.
However, it was more of a competition from then on out. Toyota won in 2015 and 2016, Chevrolet went back to victory lane in 2017 before Ford scored the final 3 wins on the oval in 2018, 2019 and 2020.
Now, it’s back to Chevy. Who wins out on Sunday?
We know Ford’s are lagging on these tracks. They led four laps in COTA, two in Sonoma and none in Chicago.
Chevy led 29 of 75 laps in COTA, 25 of 110 in Sonoma and 32 of 78 in Chicago. Toyota’s by comparison led 42 of 75 in COTA, 84 of 110 in Sonoma and 46 of 78 in Chicago. So, who has the leg up between them?
Is Toyota all the way back?
Many wondered if Toyota a year ago truly had a deficit or did their drivers maybe miss a step. Martin Truex Jr finished 7th, 26th, 13th, 21st, 23rd and 17th in the 6 races on them a year ago. Denny Hamlin was 18th, 31st, 17th, 14th, 20th and 13th respectively himself. Kyle Busch was 28th, 30th, 29th, 11th, 32nd and third. Christopher Bell being 3rd, 27th, 18th, 12th, 8th and first was the bright spot. Bubba Wallace was 38th, 36th, 35th, 5th, 35th and 7th. The 45 ride which is now the 23 was 32nd, 18th, 23rd, 17th, 16th and 22nd between Kurt Busch and Ty Gibbs.
In saying this, how much would another change to the racing package bring them together or does Chevrolet make further gains?
Reddick proved that while the Toyota package overall was down with them finishing 9th (Ty Gibbs), 16th (Denny Hamlin), 17th (Martin Truex Jr), 31st (Christopher Bell) and 37th (Bubba Wallace) in COTA, he still can get the job done in leading 41 of 75 laps en route to the victory this past March in COTA.
But, did he truly answer the question?
Martin Truex Jr. did in Sonoma by dominating. Denny Hamlin did too in qualifying on the pole a day prior. Then, Hamlin went out and won the pole in Chicago in an all Toyota front row sweep.
However, Hamlin also didn’t score a top 10 in either race. Truex Jr. has finished 17th and 32nd outside of his win. Christopher Bell has finished 31st, ninth and 18th on them while Ty Gibbs has been 9th, 18th and 9th.
Even Bubba Wallace was 27th, 17th and 31st and in the two races that Reddick didn’t win, he was 33rd and 28th.
Which makes me wonder if there is a deficit or is this track specific?
We’ll find out.
Reddick has four Cup wins now with three of which coming on road courses including now having a win in half of the six of them on the schedule. However, he’s finished 16th or worse in 7 of the last 9 races too on the season.
He won last July in Road America as well as Indianapolis and again in COTA.
Hamlin has two poles on these tracks in 2023, but his finishes read 16th, 36th and 11th respectively. While he was punted from the win here in 2021, he finished 14th a year ago. He does have four consecutive Top-7 finishes on the season including being first, second and third respectively in the last three.
Truex Jr. did win Sonoma. However, he was also 17th (COTA) and 32nd (Chicago) too. He finished 21st last year. The thing is, he does have eight Top-7 finishes in the last 10 races on the season including being first, third, seventh and second the last four weeks.
For Bell, I can’t get over the fact that he’s not had a Top-5 finish since his Bristol Dirt win on Easter night (16 races ago).
While he was better than his 31st place finish indicates in COTA, was ninth in Sonoma and if not for the field being flipped, had a shot at a Chicago win last month, he was 12th last year and hasn’t executed properly for me to take a chance again this week.
Does Chevy have the leg up in Indy then or does someone from this Toyota group kiss the bricks. OR does Ford sneak in their third consecutive win of the season?
Sleeper Winner
AJ Allmendinger (2nd, 1st in NXS, 1, 7th in Cup) is good here. Austin Cindric (won NXS, runner-up last year in Cup) is also strong. Ty Gibbs was ninth in two of the three road races this season. Michael McDowell was eighth last year and seventh in each of the last two road races this year. Harrison Burton and Todd Gilliland landed top five finishes a year ago too.
Can one of these drivers turn the playoffs upside down with a win on Sunday?
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