TRACK: Indianapolis Motor Speedway (2.439-mile road course) DISTANCE: 82 Laps – STAGE 1: 15 Laps, Stage 2: 20 Laps, FINAL STAGE 47 LAPS (199.991-Miles)

TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

5th straight year this race date has moved. It was September 8, 2019, July 5, 2020, Aug. 15, 2021, July 31, 2022 and now August 13 this weekend. Finding the right date on the schedule has been tough. But, this is also only the third time the Cup Series has ever raced on the road course.

The Xfinity Series cars tried it in 2020 and it came back for both series in 2021. Now, it’s here again.

Chevrolet is a perfect 2-for-2 here on the road course but just 1-for-3 on the season on them. Chevy went 5-for-6 last year on road courses and had won the final six road races in 2021 too.

Factor in the 2019 race at Watkins Glen (2 races in 2019) and the 2 races (Daytona, Charlotte) in 2020 and you get Chevy scoring 16 wins in the last 20 road course races in general.

Chevrolet has always had a leg up over the competition in Indianapolis anyhow. From the inaugural race in1994 through 2014, a bowtie was found in victory lane an astounding 16 times in a 21 year span including 12 straight.

However, it was more of a competition from then on out. Toyota won in 2015 and 2016, Chevrolet went back to victory lane in 2017 before Ford scored the final 3 wins on the oval in 2018, 2019 and 2020. Now, it’s back to Chevy.

Who wins out on Sunday?

We know Ford’s are lagging on these tracks. They led four laps in COTA, two in Sonoma and none in Chicago.

Chevy led 29 of 75 laps in COTA, 25 of 110 in Sonoma and 32 of 78 in Chicago. Toyota’s by comparison led 42 of 75 in COTA, 84 of 110 in Sonoma and 46 of 78 in Chicago. So, who has the leg up between them?

Is Toyota all the way back?

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TRACK COMPARISONS

Most comparable to the Charlotte ROVAL but Indy stands out as it’s own race too as it’s not a true road course nor ROVAL either.

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5 Favorites

Martin Truex Jr. (+400)

Yes, he won Sonoma. However, he was 17th (COTA) and 32nd (Chicago) too. He finished 21st last year. That gives me some pause on him being the outright favorite. The thing is, he has also scored eight Top-7 finishes in the last 10 races on the season including being first, third, seventh and second the last four weeks. He starts 12th.

Tyler Reddick (+550)

The defending race winner also dominated COTA back in March. However, he’s also finished 16th or worse in seven of his last nine starts on the season. Three of his four career wins have all been on road courses and he starts on the front row for the second consecutive year.

Chase Elliott (+750)

He had a top 5 car in 2021 but is winless at Indy even on the oval. Can he join his dad as the first father-son combo to win at Indy in the NASCAR ranks? Elliott didn’t race COTA this year but fifth in Sonoma and third in Chicago this season. He needs a win too and starts third.

Kyle Busch (+1000)

Driving the car Reddick won with last season, Busch has finished second, second and fifth this season on the same road courses. The only problem is the fact that he’s finished 21st or worse in two of the last three races on the season too. Still, he starts fifth.

Kyle Larson (+1100)

He led the most laps and finished third in 2021 but was just 35th last year. Larson has finished 14th, eighth and fourth respectively on road courses in 2023 and has four Top-5 finishes in the last seven weeks on the season at that. He’ll roll off sixth.

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5 Sleepers

Chris Buescher (+2200)

He’s been a vastly improved road racer including eighth, fourth and 10th respectively on these courses this season. He also rebounded from a fire to finish 10th last year too. Now, he enters on the heels of two straight wins on the season too. Can he win three straight?

Michael McDowell (+2800)

He’s won at Road America in the Xfinity Series and was 12th, seventh and seventh in three road races run this season. He was quickest in practice and rolls off fourth.

Austin Cindric (+2800)

He won the Xfinity Series race on this very track here in 2021, was strong on road courses last year, including a runner-up here and has placed sixth in two of the three road races this season too.

Joey Logano (+3500)

While he was third in Sonoma, eighth in Chicago and sixth last year, he was also 28th in COTA. However, if anyone from the Ford camp is going to win, it may be Logano.

Ty Gibbs (+4000)

Worth a look for a driver that raced here last year and has a pair of ninth place finishes in three road races run this season and has taken over the 16th and final spot into the playoffs right now.

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5 Fades

Shane Van Gisbergen (+1000)

I get that he won Chicago’s street race, but for lightning to strike twice in as many tries? Not for these odds, sorry.

Christopher Bell (+1100)

I can’t get over the fact that he’s not had a Top-5 finish since his Bristol Dirt win on Easter night (16 races ago).

While he was better than his 31st place finish indicates in COTA, was ninth in Sonoma and if not for the field being flipped, had a shot at a Chicago win last month, he was 12th last year and hasn’t executed properly for me to take a chance again this week.

Ross Chastain (+2200)

Had a chance at a win last year and was fourth in COTA and 10th at Sonoma this year. My only issue is the fact that while he was seventh on Monday at Michigan, he still only has one Top-5 finish in the last 11 starts on the season too.

Stewart-Haas Racing

These are not great tracks for them. At COTA, they finished 13-15-30-32. In Sonoma it was 11-13-28-29. At Chicago, it was 12-15-20-20.

William Byron (+2200)

Fifth, 14th and 13th this year on these tracks. He’s only had just one Top-5 finish in the last nine weeks.