INDIANAPOLIS — This will mark the 15th race on the IMS road course if you factor in all 10 GMR Grand Prix races as well as the 2020 Harvest Grand Prix doubleheader and the now three NASCAR-INDYCAR shared weekend’s in 2021, 2022 and 2023.

Oddly enough, we’ve seen a lot of parity here for this road course event. Simon Pagenaud started it in May 2019. Scott Dixon won in July 2020. Josef Newgarden won in October 2020 in Race 1 of the doubleheader weekend while Will Power won the 2nd leg of it. Rinus VeeKay won in May 2021 while Power won again in August of that year. Then, in May 2022, it was Colton Herta’s turn and his teammate, Alexander Rossi, winning the return trip last July. This May, it was Alex Palou.

That’s 8 drivers in an 9-race span to win here on the 2.439-mile road course layout. Will we get a 9th on Saturday?

Team Penske has the most Indy road course wins (8) as well. However, they’re also 1-for-5 over the last two years here and haven’t won the May particular event since 2019. At that time, this was their 5th straight win in the race. They’re 0-for-4 since.

Does that make the Andretti Autosport camp among the favorites then? They started 0-for-11 here, before sweeping both events a year ago.

For Indy in particular, Penske has the most podiums scored here with 14. They had 8 in the pre Aeroscreen era and 6 since (2020 and beyond). Andretti Autosport and Chip Ganassi Racing have actually swapped roles in dominance here though and could soon be swapping again.

From 2014 through 2019, Ganassi had 3 podiums on the road course compared to Andretti’s two. Since the Aeroscreen came on the cars, Andretti has since netted 6 podiums (8 races), tied with Penske for most in this span, in comparison to Ganassi’s three in the same 8 races.

RLL has 3 podiums here as fourth best while McLaren just scored two podiums in May.

Podium Finishes on IMS Road Course (42 spots)

Penske 14

Andretti 8

Ganassi 6

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing 3

Schmidt Peterson Motorsports 3

Arrow McLaren Racing 2

Meyer Shank Racing 2

Ed Carpenter Racing 2

Dale Coyne Racing 2

Overall, Ganassi though has the most wins in the Aeroscreen era on natural road courses with 10. They’re 3-for-4 this year too including on this very track this past May. Penske is next best with 9 while Andretti (4), Arrow McLaren Racing (1) and Ed Carpenter Racing (1) have won the other.

In regards to podiums, Penske has produced 22, Ganassi 21 and Andretti 17. Those are the only three in double digits. McLaren (5), Dale Coyne Racing (4), ECR (3), RLL (2) and MSR (1) are the only other ones.

Qualifying is everything here. 13 of the 14 races on this layout were won by a top 8 starter. The only one not was Colton Herta in the rain back in May of last year, who started 14th in the rain.

In fact, 4 of the last 7 races here were won via a front row starter but 3 of those 4 were from the second placed starter though. Palou won from third in May.

Just once in the last 9 races here has the pole sitter actually won. They were 4-for-5 (all 4 consecutively) prior.

It’s not just here, it’s natural courses everywhere (All these stats prior to Mid-Ohio)

Starting positions for natural road courses lately (since 2016) 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 7th, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 20th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 8th, 2nd, 8th, 2nd, 1st, 7th, 9th, 7th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 7th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, 1st and 1st, 2nd, 14th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 11th, 4th, 3rd and 3rd. That’s 45 of the last 49 (91.8%) coming from the top 10 including 22 from the pole and 38 of 49 (77.5%) from the Fast 6.

Since 2020, the year the Aeroscreen debuted, 13 of the 24 races (54.1%) have been won via a front row starter including 9 of the last 14 (64.2%) and 5 of the 9 (63%) last year. 18 of the 24 (75%) were won from a Fast Six starter while 22 of the last 24 (91.6%) from the top 10.

If you fail to get out of the first round on Friday, you basically have no shot at a win. You also have a very little shot at a podium too. Out of the 42 combined podium trophies up for grabs here (counting the May races too), 36 of them were taken by top 10 starters (85.7%). In fact, the summer race has seen podium finishers of only starters from the top 4 Rows to where at least in the first race, it has opened up plays to see someone come from behind in 3 of the last 4 years.

Podium Starters Of Spring Race Since 2014:

2014: 4th, 3rd, 10th

2015: 1st, 17th, 4th

2016: 1st, 13th, 3rd

2017: 1st, 4th, 8th

2018: 1st, 18th, 2nd

2019: 8th, 2nd, 3rd

2020 (July): 7th, 4th, 20th

2021: 7th, 1st, 4th

2022: 14th, 20th, 1st

2023: 3rd, 5th, 19th

Podium Finishers Of 2nd Race Weekend Here

2020 Race 1 (October): 2nd, 8th, 1st

2020 Race 2 (October): 1st, 2nd, 3rd

2021: 2nd, 3rd, 5th

2022: 2nd, 6th, 4th

My Top 5 Prediction:

1. 15 Rahal – Too good of a story not for him to take being quickest in practice on Friday morning and his first pole since 2017 to victory lane.
2. 10 Palou – The master goes off strategy and moves his way up to 2nd in the end.
3. 7 Rossi – 3rd place finish in May and starts 4th on Saturday.
4. 45 Lundgaard – I think he and Rahal go opposite strategy to ensure a win, but it costs Lundgaard a podium.
5. 11 Armstrong – 1st time seeing a track for a second time and he starts 7th.