INDIANAPOLIS — Alex Palou and Josef Newgarden are not only 1-2 in points, but they’re also the last two drivers to win on these hallowed grounds of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway too. Palou won the May road course race here by 16.8006-seconds. He led 67 of 85 laps that day. The Spaniard has gone on to win four total races during the 2023 NTT INDYCAR SERIES season which also includes a win at Road America and Mid-Ohio.

Newgarden won the 107th Running of the Indianapolis 500 15 days after Palou’s win. It was his second Indy win (1 on the road course, 1 on the oval). Now, can either win this weekend?

Palou was 3rd in May 2021, had a fast car in May 2022 before going off course in the rain, had a podium going before his engine blew in Aug. 2021 and won by 16.8-seconds this past May.

Newgarden qualifies well (3rd, 5th last year) but also has just 1 podium in 13 Indy road course tries too. Out of his last five Indy road course races, he’s led just two laps. He was seventh in May. On natural road courses this season, he’s finished 15th, 7th and 2nd respectively.

Last year, Colton Herta (24th place) and Marcus Ericsson (11th place) tried the same feat and neither finished in the top 10.

The thing is, Newgarden has to hope for a good day or else this championship could be all but over.

Palou lucked out by having two late cautions last week in Nashville preserving a podium finish. He said he was a lap or two away from pitting before those yellows fell.

“We were, like, done,” Palou admitted. “We couldn’t really save that much fuel. It was impossible. We were already saving and losing like 2 seconds a lap, 2.5. They told me to go.

“We did one full lap of going because we wanted to get some lap time, try and pass some cars that were, like, 20th or whatever. Suddenly the yellow came. I was like, Yeah. Then another yellow that helped me a lot so I could at least be a bit more aggressive or defensive on the last restart.”

If that Lap 71 caution never flies, Palou likely does finish around 18th. That’s 12 points, plus one point for leading lap. He’d have 13 points for which Newgarden would move up to third and score 35. That’s a 22 point swing for which instead of facing an 84 point deficit, Newgarden would trail Palou by 58.

“Until they give us the trophy… I think Josef can win the last four races,” Palou said. “Why not? Everybody can do it. We can do it, as well.

“Yeah, on this championship, on this series, unfortunately I don’t think you can just take it easy, especially now with all the work we did. We don’t want to race to finish ninth. Maybe on the last race I would take that, absolutely.

“But, yeah, with Indy road course coming up, we won there on May, I think we know we have a fast car. We have an opportunity to win there again.”

Gateway is in two weeks for which Newgarden has won the last three at and is a perfect 4-for-4 on ovals this season. That could be a place Newgarden makes up some ground, but is it not enough?

What if Palou extends his advantage again?

54 points is a max points day. That means as we sit, over the next 3 races, Newgarden has to make up 30 points on Palou or this race is o-v-e-r.

Palou has finished 5th, 5th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 8th, 3rd, 3rd over the last 11 races. Newgarden has finished 9th, 15th, 7th, 1st, 10th, 2nd, 12th, 5th, 1st, 1st, 4th himself.