Will Upcoming Stretch Throw The Playoff Field Upside Down
The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season is another one that’s as unpredictable as they’ve come. We reached 13 different winners heading to Indy this weekend. Last year we saw 14. Do we see any more?
I also wonder if this upcoming stretch of races that will take us to the conclusion of the regular season will turn the playoff standings upside down again too.
You have Indy this weekend and Watkins Glen next for which we’ve seen a new winner on road courses in each of the last five races too (Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr. and Shane Van Gisbergen).
Then it’s to Daytona to close out the regular season for which there’s been 8 straight different winners to go along with the last 12 races being won by a non season champion too.
That’s why Sunday’s race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is an important one. We already know that one wildcard spot will be in the playoffs. Will there now be two?
Just look at the drivers below the cutline.
Chase Elliott has 7 road course wins. He’s won 2 of the last 4 races at Watkins Glen. AJ Allmendinger (2nd, 1st in NXS, 1, 7th in Cup) is good here as his only two wins have come at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen. Austin Cindric (won NXS, runner-up last year in Cup) is also strong. He won the 2022 Daytona 500. Michael McDowell was eighth here last year and seventh in each of the last two road races this year. He won the 2021 Daytona 500. Harrison Burton and Todd Gilliland each landed top five finishes a year ago too and could easily win in this upcoming stretch with Daytona looming. Corey LaJoie is going to be a threat at Daytona.
Can one of these drivers or someone else pick up an upset win over the next 3 weeks?
“Yeah, the next two or three weeks is going to get more and more wild,” said Brad Keselowski. “Chase Elliott is a heck of a road course racer. I know Hendrick Motorsports is coming loaded for bear for him the next two races.
“Then you have Daytona to finish off the Playoffs. If Daytona wasn’t already a madhouse, you can only imagine it now that you have all these prestigious drivers that are just below the cut line, going to lay it all out.
“Not just the next three weeks, but the next 13 weeks are shaping up to be big for the sport. In the short-term picture, the next three weeks are going to be their own storyline.
“That’s one of the things that makes NASCAR special, how many storylines there are throughout the season, right? I think we’re seeing that throughout this season.”
Does Chase Elliott Miss The Playoffs?
Due to Chase Elliott’s crash early on at Michigan, he was credited with a 36th place finish. As a result of that, he drops from 40 points behind the cutline to 55 back with just three races remaining.
Elliott is taking it in stride though with saying that even when he came back from injury, he always expected to have to win anyhow. The problem is, he’s winless in his last 21 starts.
Indy is up next to where he’s winless. Then it’s to Watkins Glen to where he’s been great at. He won two of the last four years at The Glen with being runner-up (2021) and fourth (2022) in the others.
On road courses this season, Elliott didn’t race COTA this year but was fifth in Sonoma and third in Chicago this season.
Elliott has won 18 NASCAR Cup Series races including a championship in 2020. He’s also the five-time defending Most Popular Driver. However, he’s yet to win a crown jewel. Does that come on Sunday?
I’m not saying the Verizon 200 is a crown jewel by Indy is a marquee track. Elliott was 0-for-6 in the Brickyard 400 with just one Top-10 finish (ninth in 2019). He’s 0-for-2 on the raod course
Elliott is also 0-for-8 in the Daytona 500 with just one Top-5 finish (runner-up in 2021).
Elliott is 0-for-7 in the Bristol Night Race.
Elliott is 0-for-8 in the Southern 500 with just one Top-5 finish (5th in 2018).
He’s also 0-for-9 in the Coca-Cola 600.
Can he pick up a popular win this weekend?
This and next week are his best hopes for winning. Daytona isn’t a place that he wants to have to score his first career win there with playoff hopes riding on the line of it.
See, Hendrick Motorsports is tied with the Wood Brothers for most Daytona wins in the NASCAR Cup Series. Each have 15. Both have also won those 15 races with 7 different drivers. However, HMS’ once dominance prowess has since cooled. They won 11 races between 1995 and 2015. In fact, 7 of those 11 occurred from July 2004 and July 2015. They’ve won this race 6 times.
Since 2016 though, they have just one win. What’s bizarre is, it’s not like they’ve not shown up down here without speed. They’ve arguably had the fastest cars off the truck. It’s just that they’ve not had race day speed to correlate with race day handling. Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott shared the front row of this race last year. It’s was actually the 4th straight HMS pole at Daytona and 12th in the last 16 tries on the high banked 2.5-mile Florida superspeedway. The only 4 poles they didn’t win was Greg Biffle (July 2016), Joey Logano (July 2019), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (February 2020) and Kevin Harvick (Aug. 2020).
However, 2 of the 4 weren’t won on speed. Logano’s pole in 2019 was on points. Same for Harvick in 2020 as we didn’t qualify that year.
Still, HMS failed to win with having just 1 win in the last 15 Daytona races now and that’s counting February when they had another front row sweep. Elliott led the most laps (31) last year but none of them even scored a top 10.
Elliott was runner-up in the 2019 Coke Zero Sugar 400, runner-up in the 2020 Daytona 500, 8th in the 2021 ‘400 and 10th in the 2021 Daytona 500. While he won two superspeedway races last year, he was 38th, 12th and 13th this year.
Will Road Course Changes Help This Race or Hurt It?
This year, we have the second year of this new Next Gen model but this being the fourth road course event of the season, how much does the 2022 package work in 2023, especially with the changes made?
I think it did somewhat in COTA and Sonoma, but Chicago was a breed of its own. What about this weekend in Indianapolis?
I think on Sunday, it could fix the issue of the late race calamity in Turn 1. However, it could be a runaway too which could make this race a snoozer.
Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin said he has some concerns about doing away with the stage breaks on these tracks.
“I think this thing has the potential of really getting strung out, a lot” Hamlin said. “If we do, I don’t want to hear any complaining because that’s the potential. … this will make for more strategy though.”
NASCAR started this stage format in 2017 as it rewards points for the top 10 finishers of the two stages. It’s done to make the drivers actually race from the onset of the green flag but also give fans a break to go to the bathroom or concession stand or if you’re at home, to walk away from the TV at the two stoppages.
However, most fans didn’t take to it like NASCAR thought they would. Many fans liked the idea of stages, but why not just continue on with the green flag action? Award points and if the flag was a green checkered like it was, doesn’t green mean, go?
Hence the change.
While it’s made a difference, how much of an impact will it have on Sunday?
It was becoming the norm for teams to elect to pit right before the stage would end to give up points for track position. They don’t have that luxury anymore. They automatically knew when two cautions would fly so would plan accordingly. It took the strategy aspect out of these races.
I now like that strategy plays are back in the hands of the teams again and that these races won’t carry on forever. You now don’t know when cautions are coming and can open up when to pit and when not to do so.
Last year, none of the road course races saw a driver that had won the race finish in the points in Stage 1. It’s because they all had pit already. In Stage 2, they finished: 8th (COTA), 4th (Sonoma), 10th (Road America), no points (Indy) and 8th (Watkins Glen), no points (ROVAL).
Reddick played the similar role in Stage 1 in COTA this year but stayed out to take the stage win in the second one. Martin Truex Jr. was second in Stage 1 in Sonoma but pit and was seventh in Sonoma.
That luxury isn’t typically there anymore as someone could in theory run away with this thing which makes Hamlin’s point. They also could run away too far and you’re one caution away from flipping the field too.
Which makes me wonder what strategy these crew chiefs are going to elect to go for. How long do we expect the tires to hold up? Will they hold up for a full fuel run and if so, what is the fuel number?
Do teams short pit or long pit? Do you do the overcut or undercut? Can you pit with clean air in front of you entering and in front of you exiting. In and out laps are key too.
Strategy is open again and I love it. Let’s just hope it doesn’t become redundant.
That’s not the only change. On Wednesday, NASCAR confirmed that they have changed the location of the restart zone at Indy.
The restart zone location for this weekend’s races has been relocated to between Turns 13 & 14 . Race vehicles do not have to stay in line until they pass the start-finish line. Once vehicles exit the restart zone, they may change lanes.
NASCAR is doing this to try to help thin out the field before the cars get to turn one.
They mentioned also that if the drivers can’t abide and not take unnecessary risks, then they have the authority to go to single line restarts too.
Speaking of which, for double file restarts, this will be the first Indianapolis Road Course race that will feature the choose rule. The Choose V will be located prior to Turn 7.
Also, the move to use the Turn 1 escape road will now force a stop and go.
Ross Chastain tried to make a daring maneuver from 4th on the final restart to go for the lead last year. Chaos occurred. Chastain went off course by ignoring the turn and coming back on while battling with Tyler Reddick for the win. He too was penalized but didn’t know it until after he crossed the finish line and was doing post race interviews.
Now, he can’t come back onto the track without stopping completely.
Chastain said he had to take that move because of the crashing inside of him which now NASCAR is saying that either go through the crash or use the access road, but you have to come to a complete stop.
Can Buescher Win 3 Straight?
Chris Buescher had just two career Cup wins in his first 278 starts. He’s now won two races in-a-row. Can he three peat on Sunday?
His odds are better than you might think.
Buescher has been a vastly improved road racer including being eighth, fourth and 10th respectively on these courses this season. He rebounded from a fire to finish 10th last year. Now, he enters on the heels of two straight wins on the season too.
“I’m tickled to death that we’re as strong as we were this weekend and last weekend,” said Brad Keselowski. “Looking for big things in Indy off that momentum. I know Chris is one of the best road course drivers in the series. Last year he probably deserved to win that race, but caught some terrible breaks. He’s going to have a heck of a shot next week. I’m happy for him.”
The only thing is, don’t expect much out of his teammate, Keselowski himself this weekend however. These have become his worst tracks. He’s finished 35th, 16th and 24th on them this season. Last year, he was 14th, 10th, 33rd, 20th, 19th and 14th respectively. Even in 2021 he went fifth, 19th, 15th, 13th, 35th, 24th and 20th respectively.
He’s finished 13th or worse in 16 of his last 18 starts on these tracks.
Can Hendrick Get Going Again?
Hendrick Motorsports at one point was the toast of the town. They had won 2 of the last 3 Cup Series titles and this past spring, looked like they could get at least 2 cars to the Championship 4 this Fall. Now, they may leave 2 cars home from the playoffs.
They enter having scored finishes of P5-P33-P35-P36 on Monday.
Both Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott are both below the cutline entering this weekend’s race at Indy. There’s just three races left in the regular season.
HMS won 3 of the first 7 races and 4 of the opening 9. They’ve won 2 of the last 13.
Bowman has tumbled from a points lead to not having a top 10 finish since the spring Richmond race (13 races ago). Granted, penalties and missing three races contributed to that too.
Elliott missed six races to injury and one to suspension.
William Byron had 3 top 5 finishes in the first 5 races, then a stretch of six straight top eight finishes. Since that? 1 top 5 over the last 9.
Kyle Larson has 11 top 10 finishes, 10 of which in the top 5. His problem is, when he’s not in the top 5, he’s struggling. He also has 10 finishes of 18th or worse too including 3 of his last 5 on the season being 19th or worse at that.
Can HMS turn this ship around?
They won 10 Brickyard 400’s but 0-for-2 on the road course.
It’s to Watkins Glen next to where they have won the last four.
Then it’s to Daytona to where they may once again struggle.
They’re tied with the Wood Brothers for most Daytona wins in the NASCAR Cup Series. Each have 15. Both have also won those 15 races with 7 different drivers. However, HMS’ once dominance prowess has since cooled. They won 11 races between 1995 and 2015. In fact, 7 of those 11 occurred from July 2004 and July 2015. They’ve won this race 6 times.
Since 2016 though, they have just one win. What’s bizarre is, it’s not like they’ve not shown up down here without speed. They’ve arguably had the fastest cars off the truck. It’s just that they’ve not had race day speed to correlate with race day handling. Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott shared the front row of this race last year. It’s was actually the 4th straight HMS pole at Daytona and 12th in the last 16 tries on the high banked 2.5-mile Florida superspeedway. The only 4 poles they didn’t win was Greg Biffle (July 2016), Joey Logano (July 2019), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (February 2020) and Kevin Harvick (Aug. 2020).
However, 2 of the 4 weren’t won on speed. Logano’s pole in 2019 was on points. Same for Harvick in 2020 as we didn’t qualify that year.
Still, HMS failed to win with having just 1 win in the last 15 Daytona races now and that’s counting February when they had another front row sweep. Elliott led the most laps (31) last year but none of them even scored a top 10.
Elliott was runner-up in the 2019 Coke Zero Sugar 400, runner-up in the 2020 Daytona 500, 8th in the 2021 ‘400 and 10th in the 2021 Daytona 500. While he won two superspeedway races last year, he was 38th, 12th and 13th this year.
Larson has never won a superspeedway race and has just 1 top 5 in 39 starts on them at that. He was 18th, 31st, 33rd and 36th on them this season.
Bowman is always quick on superspeedways but he has just one top five finish in his career at Daytona. That was back in February’s Daytona 500. He was 14th, 13th and 26th in the other three superspeedway races.
William Byron is the only one I’d consider looking at. He has two top two finishes in his last five Coke Zero Sugar 400 starts. His Daytona 500 starts? 23rd, 21st, 40th, 26th, 38th and 34th respectively. He’s better here in the summer and won this past July in Atlanta. He was also seventh in Talladega.
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