Why The Disparity Between 1st Road Course Race And The 2nd?

Since they annually started hosting two race weekend on the same track, no one has been able to sweep both road course races at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. You get the usual May date, but in 2020 with COVID wrecking havoc on this world of ours, it was deemed best to host a doubleheader weekend that season in October.

For the last two last years, we had the May race weekend and the one in August with a split bill with NASCAR. Same is here this season with the exception of the NASCAR shared weekend moving up to the end of July.

In saying that, both weekend’s couldn’t have looked much different in all three years. No one truly knows why.

“It’s such a swing event,” Herta said. “When you look at when people are fast here, it’s very rare that you see people fast here in the spring and the fall races. It’s bizarre. I still haven’t really figured out why. We’ve been in the same situation. In May we were maybe in the top five but when we came back we were the 2nd or 3rd best car. It’s such a swing event. I’m not really sure what causes that.”

One could say weather is a determining factor. It’s cooler in May than it is in the summer and in 2020, the first race was pushed back to a hot Fourth of July while the Fall race was in October. We’ve yet to have similar conditions for both races.

So in saying that, will Saturday’s race look a lot different at the top than what the one did 2 months ago?

“A little bit,” Scott McLaughlin said. “It’s also a little bit on the track usage side. I think we’re going to be one of the first people on the track. There’s not much support categories apart from NASCAR on the track. The rubber is probably going to be down.

“Yeah, it’s a little bit different in that regard, how you prepare. But, like you said, we’ve been there before and tried it. I feel like we got a really good handle of where we want the setup to be.

“But, yeah, certainly it’s going to be an interesting weekend if we don’t get on top of the car straightaway in practice one. The temperature is a little bit different, like you said, a little bit hotter this weekend than it was in May. Thankfully it wasn’t too cold in May, we got a nice little taste there.”

Plus, you have stock cars on track with Goodyear tire rubber to throw a wrench into things too. Friday will be purely INDYCAR and Indy NXT. Saturday morning you have Xfinity Series practice and qualifying followed by the Cup Series. All that rubber will be on the track to start the Gallagher Grand Prix after.

“It’s an interesting weekend and in the back of everyone’s minds that there will be NASCAR rubber on the track as well. Luckily, I don’t think it’s something that hurts us as a team,” Lundgaard said.

The thing is, it has affected the Penske cars ironically. They’ve not won the spring race since 2019. However, they dominated the two Harvest Grand Prix’s in 2020 with Josef Newgarden leading 34 of 85 laps in his win during the first doubleheader race of the race weekend. A day later, Will Power led all 75 laps in victory.

In Aug. 2021, Power led 56 of 85 laps in another win. Last year, they went 3-4-5.

However, one could make a case that Alex Palou won’t win on Saturday afternoon and someone from Team Penske will.

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Should We Come Here Twice?

With there being a few tracks coming to mind that most would love to see the NTT INDYCAR Series go to, does coming to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course twice make sense? Wouldn’t it be wise to get a sanctioning fee from somewhere else?

In saying that, does it make sense not to come here twice too?

The May weekend was added to do just that, add to the Month of May. As field sizes dropped off with the attendance, it didn’t make dollars and sense to have four weekend’s of action on the oval here. From opening day to race day with the middle being two weekend’s of qualifying, it wasn’t needed anymore.

So, to grow the series and the month, why not show race fans that there’s more to INDYCAR can just the Indy 500. You see 300k people show up on race day for the ‘500 but no where close to that elsewhere. Well, by racing on a road course here in their home race, it shows those here in Indianapolis that an Indy Car can make left and right hand turns. It also adds value to a weekend that would normally have hosted 5-10k. Now, you get 40-50k which is a bonus.

I don’t see this race leaving the schedule any time soon.

What about the second date? I don’t see why IMS and INDYCAR would want to leave shared exposure with NASCAR. You get more eyes on your product and have the rare occurrence with the rare INDYCAR-NASCAR shared doubleheader weekend. Why would you want anyone else to host that feat?

However, is two race weekend’s for INDYCAR on the road course diluting the product now?

Plus, INDYCAR just kind of seems pushed aside for the NASCAR weekend. Gasoline Alley is used by the Xfinity Series teams. The Cup teams use the old F1 garages. INDYCAR is off to the side to where the hospitality trucks usually are.

Are they even wanted?

Then you have the fact that the last time these cars were here, 300k+ were here witnessing a thrilling Indy 500. With the same cars, with the same drivers, on the same track, albeit going the opposite way on the road course, the crowd being much over 50-60k would be generous. Which is why I also side that this race is needed to further educate this fan base.

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Why Does Starting Position Matter For This Race Over May?

Qualifying is everything here. 13 of the 14 races on this layout were won by a top 8 starter. The only one not was Colton Herta in the rain back in May of last year, who started 14th in the rain.

In fact, 4 of the last 7 races here were won via a front row starter but 3 of those 4 were from the second placed starter though. Palou won from third in May.

However, 3 of the last 4 May races were won from Row 4. It seems like the May race gives more options to move up through the field.

Podium Starters Of Spring Race Since 2014:

2014: 4th, 3rd, 10th

2015: 1st, 17th, 4th

2016: 1st, 13th, 3rd

2017: 1st, 4th, 8th

2018: 1st, 18th, 2nd

2019: 8th, 2nd, 3rd

2020 (July): 7th, 4th, 20th

2021: 7th, 1st, 4th

2022: 14th, 20th, 1st

2023: 3rd, 5th, 19th

Podium Finishers Of 2nd Race Weekend Here

2020 Race 1 (October): 2nd, 8th, 1st

2020 Race 2 (October): 1st, 2nd, 3rd

2021: 2nd, 3rd, 5th

2022: 2nd, 6th, 4th

It’s the opposite for the second race weekend. All four races in the return trip were won from the front row with all the podium spots from not only the top 8 starters, but 11 of the 12 available spots from the Fast Six.

Why the differential?

The thing is, just once in the last 9 races here has the pole sitter actually won here. They were 4-for-5 (all 4 consecutively) prior.

It’s not just here, it’s natural courses everywhere (All these stats prior to Mid-Ohio)

Starting positions for natural road courses lately (since 2016) 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 7th, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 20th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 8th, 2nd, 8th, 2nd, 1st, 7th, 9th, 7th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 7th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, 1st and 1st, 2nd, 14th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 11th, 4th, 3rd and 3rd. That’s 45 of the last 49 (91.8%) coming from the top 10 including 22 from the pole and 38 of 49 (77.5%) from the Fast 6.

Since 2020, the year the Aeroscreen debuted, 13 of the 24 races (54.1%) have been won via a front row starter including 9 of the last 14 (64.2%) and 5 of the 9 (63%) last year. 18 of the 24 (75%) were won from a Fast Six starter while 22 of the last 24 (91.6%) from the top 10.

If you fail to get out of the first round on Friday, you basically have no shot at a win. You also have a very little shot at a podium too. Out of the 42 combined podium trophies up for grabs here (counting the May races too), 36 of them were taken by top 10 starters (85.7%). In fact, the summer race has seen podium finishers of only starters from the top 4 Rows to where at least in the first race, it has opened up plays to see someone come from behind in 3 of the last 4 years.

“It’s just one of those things. I think we’ve battled with qualifying, which has been a bit of an Achilles’ heel there,” McLaughlin said. “Haven’t been in the Fast 12 the last couple. I feel that’s been reasonably automatic for us on road courses. That’s on us to find everything.

“At the same time there’s a lot of very — it’s a tight field there. If you miss it by a little bit, you’re going to be back there. There’s not much room for error. If you are off by a little bit, it does affect you.

“I’m very confident we can go back there and be okay. I feel like our race car is really good. We always race well to the front. The qualifying car is definitely our Achilles’ heel. Hopefully we get on top of that this weekend.”

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Can Josef Newgarden Pick Up Indy Win?

An emotional Josef Newgarden climbed from his No. 2 Dallara-Chevrolet and whisked himself under the fence line and into the Paddock grandstands to celebrate his thrilling win via a last lap pass to score an Indy 500 triumph with the fans. Now, 75 days later, he’s back.

Newgarden will run Saturday’s Gallagher Grand Prix under much different conditions than ever before. That’s because last year he came to this race staving off a head injury suffered in a crash while leading at Iowa. This year, he’s coming into the shared NASCAR weekend, as the regining Indy 500 champion.

Can he reach victory lane again?

Newgarden is a 29-time race winner in the NTT INDYCAR Series. He’s won two championships and has finished runner-up in the final standings in each of the last three seasons.

Newgarden, is a generational driver.

What’s baffling is, Newgarden has only won once on the road course here.

He’s now 1-for-12 in the Indy 500 but 1-for-13 on the road course.

In those 13 starts on the road course, he has just 1 podium even and has led just two total laps on this track in his last six tries.

If you combine the ‘500 and the road course, that’s just three podiums in 24 tries.

The thing is, can he sweep IMS though this weekend in taking a ‘500 triumph and adding a road course?

Penske has been so good in the return trips here.

Newgarden led 34 of 85 laps in his win during the first doubleheader race of the Harvest Grand Prix race weekend in 2020. A day later, Will Power led all 75 laps in victory.

In August 2021, Power led 56 of 85 laps in another win. Last year, he finished third in that summer race. Penske went 3-4-5 last year.

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Will Scott Dixon And/Or Will Power Go Winless?

We’re now 13 races into the 2023 season and remarkably, neither Scott Dixon nor Will Power have won yet. With 4 races remaining, can they do so in this final month’s span?

Dixon has the record of most consecutive seasons with at least one trip to victory lane at 18. He’s won every year since 2005.

Power is next best at 16 with a win every season since 2007.

“Yeah, very good tracks coming up for us,” Power told me. “Series is ultra-competitive, so I really don’t see — I don’t see many weak teams out of the big four teams: Penske, McLaren, Andretti, and Ganassi. That’s just not — you might start to add Rahal into that now. Lundgaard is starting to be more of a regular top five finisher.

“Yeah, pretty tough field, toughest in the world actually. That’s why, if you can win one, it’s such a big deal. It’s a big deal now to win in INDYCAR.”

Dixon has won a race in 20 of his 21 years in the sport. It took him until Race 10 to win in Toronto last year.

For Power, it took him 7 races to reach his lone win in 2022. His next win will be his 17th season with a win which would tie Helio Castroneves for third most ever trailing only Dixon’s 20 and AJ Foyt’s 18.

However, can they each reach this mark?

Power has won at 3 of the final 4 tracks with Dixon just 2 which makes Indy as Dixon’s last likely spot to win at.

Up next is Indianapolis. Dixon has 1 win (July 2020) but just four podiums in 14 starts on this 2.439-mile layout. Those all came consecutively between 2017 and that 2020 season. Since? He’s qualified 12th, 15th, 16th, 26th, 21st, 20th and 9th. He’s finished 9th, 8th, 9th, 17th, 10th, 8th and 6th respectively.

For Power, this is more his playground with 5 wins in the same 14 starts. He also has 6 poles here too. He also has 3 podiums in the last 4 starts here including return trip finishes of 6th, 1st (2020), 1st (2021) and 3rd (last year).

Then it’s to World Wide Technology Raceway to where Dixon has 1 win in 8 starts. His finishes since 2019 are 20th, 1st, 5th, 19th and 8th. He was 6th in both Iowa races last month too.

Power won here in 2018, was 5th and 2nd in both Iowa races and 3rd, 3rd, 6th in his last 3 at Gateway. He’s also won the last 4 Iowa poles and 3 of the last 4 in St. Louis as well.

After that we go to Portland and Laguna Seca to wrap up the season.

In Portland, Dixon has finished 5th, 16th, 3rd and 3rd with Power being 21st, 1st, 13th and 2nd. Thats’ them taking 2 of the 3 podium spots a year ago.

Laguna Seca is a struggle for Dixon with finishes of 3rd, 13th and 12th but Power has 2 podiums (2019, 2022) in 3 tries.