TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

This will mark the 15th race on the IMS road course if you factor in all 10 GMR Grand Prix races as well as the 2020 Harvest Grand Prix doubleheader and the now three NASCAR-INDYCAR shared weekend’s in 2021, 2022 and 2023.

Oddly enough, we’ve seen a lot of parity here for this road course event. Simon Pagenaud started it in May 2019. Scott Dixon won in July 2020. Josef Newgarden won in October 2020 in Race 1 of the doubleheader weekend while Will Power won the 2nd leg of it. Rinus VeeKay won in May 2021 while Power won again in August of that year. Then, in May 2022, it was Colton Herta’s turn and his teammate, Alexander Rossi, winning the return trip last July. This May, it was Alex Palou.

That’s 8 drivers in an 9-race span to win here on the 2.439-mile road course layout. Will we get a 9th on Saturday?

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TRACK COMPARISONS/WHO’S BEEN GOOD ON THEM

Team Penske has the most Indy road course wins (8) as well. However, they’re also 1-for-5 over the last two years here and haven’t won the May particular event since 2019. At that time, this was their 5th straight win in the race. They’re 0-for-4 since.

Does that make the Andretti Autosport camp among the favorites then? They started 0-for-11 here, before sweeping both events a year ago.

For Indy in particular, Penske has the most podiums scored here with 14. They had 8 in the pre Aeroscreen era and 6 since (2020 and beyond). Andretti Autosport and Chip Ganassi Racing have actually swapped roles in dominance here though and could soon be swapping again.

From 2014 through 2019, Ganassi had 3 podiums on the road course compared to Andretti’s two. Since the Aeroscreen came on the cars, Andretti has since netted 6 podiums (8 races), tied with Penske for most in this span, in comparison to Ganassi’s three in the same 8 races.

RLL has 3 podiums here as fourth best while McLaren just scored two podiums in May.

Podium Finishes on IMS Road Course (42 spots)

Penske 14

Andretti 8

Ganassi 6

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing 3

Schmidt Peterson Motorsports 3

Arrow McLaren Racing 2

Meyer Shank Racing 2

Ed Carpenter Racing 2

Dale Coyne Racing 2

Overall, Ganassi though has the most wins in the Aeroscreen era on natural road courses with 10. They’re 3-for-4 this year too including on this very track this past May. Penske is next best with 9 while Andretti (4), Arrow McLaren Racing (1) and Ed Carpenter Racing (1) have won the other.

In regards to podiums, Penske has produced 22, Ganassi 21 and Andretti 17. Those are the only three in double digits. McLaren (5), Dale Coyne Racing (4), ECR (3), RLL (2) and MSR (1) are the only other ones.

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Strategy

The INDYCAR race on the IMS road course is honestly a big strategy play. The 2022 race in May was purely a display of strategy among wet tires and slicks. That was an anomaly in a sense that was the first pure rain race here. The others are down to tire choice and when to use them on stints.

If you can make it past the opening lap, the cautions usually are few and far between (12 of last 13 races here have seen 2 or fewer) and the tire strategy in turn becomes the main focus.

Then there’s the tire strategy. The disparity between the two tire compounds is typically large meaning the blacks are slower initially but remain consistent over the course of a full fuel run while the reds have a great burst of initial speed but fall off more of the same period.

In Indy however, the reds didn’t typically fall off as much. So, the strategy was on which stints do you run the reds vs. the blacks.

This past May however, it swapped.

At that time when eventual race winner, Alex Palou, strapped into his No. 10 Dallara-Honda for the morning warmup practice session on race day, the race plan was already tentatively in place. They were just going to use this 30-minute session to confirm it.

However, what they quickly learned swayed them another direction.

“Well, we were going to do a bigger gamble before warmup, which was starting on used reds,” Palou said.

That session showed he and his team that reds were going to react a lot differently this year compared to the past. See, in most years, the reds had minimal fall off. They were the preferred tires. This year, they weren’t.

So, they decided to start on fresh reds and then go blacks the rest of the way. They were the only ones up front that decided to start on the alternates. That confused them. Among the top seven starters, they all went with the primary tire option. Palou didn’t.

“We knew that since practice, honestly, that we wanted to start on reds. I was surprised that not other people at the front started on reds,” he admitted.

“For us it was clear. We were struggling a little bit more than some of the guys on used reds in the warmup. But still it’s not like they were amazing. We knew that we didn’t want to use used reds. That’s why we started on new alternates, try to get the lead, try to get a big gap, like two, three, four, seconds, then work on our pace on blacks.

“Once I saw the starting grid with the tires, we were like, Okay, we’re in a good place. Still, you have to do it. We knew we were on the right strategy for the 10 car, but you still had to do it on track.”

Pole sitter Christian Lundgaard went primary to start, then red, red, black to the finish. Pato O’Ward, who finished second, went primary at the start, red, black, red to finish. Alexander Rossi started on the alternates in 10th and went reds, then reds again, then blacks, then reds.

Now, what happens this weekend?

If you go back to 2021, Conor Daly brought out the opening lap caution, but the rest of the way went green. From Lap 4 to Lap 85, it was all green flag racing. In turn, that meant this was a three-stop strategy race like we all thought it would be. The difference would come down to tire selections.

The pole sitter that year, Romain Grosjean, started off on the Firestone Alternate tires. They were the quickest and lasted as long as the Firestone primaries, so the guys that started on the Blacks pit early to get on the Reds. Well, Grosjean went with two straight stints on the Reds. The second one on scuffed reds.

Eventual race winner, Rinus VeeKay, started off on the primary tires and pit for the Reds on Lap 12. Grosjean, didn’t pit for his first stop until Lap 25. VeeKay, would pit again on Lap 36 for scuffed reds. Grosjean pit on Lap 43 but had to go to Blacks.

That was the difference.

VeeKay got him and made his move for the lead among their sequence. He’d be able to go with Reds the final time but already hold the lead while Grosjean was too far back before he could do anything about it.

Third place finisher that day, Alex Palou, went on the Reds until Lap 25 then put on Blacks on Lap 40. He’d go Blacks again on Lap 62 as he was one of three guys to finish the race on the primary tires.

That’s just a prime example on how this race played out on strategy and I expect a similar debate again this time around.

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Qualifying

Qualifying is everything here. 13 of the 14 races on this layout were won by a top 8 starter. The only one not was Colton Herta in the rain back in May of last year, who started 14th in the rain.

In fact, 4 of the last 7 races here were won via a front row starter but 3 of those 4 were from the second placed starter though. Palou won from third in May.

Just once in the last 9 races here has the pole sitter actually won. They were 4-for-5 (all 4 consecutively) prior.

It’s not just here, it’s natural courses everywhere (All these stats prior to Mid-Ohio)

Starting positions for natural road courses lately (since 2016) 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 7th, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 20th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 8th, 2nd, 8th, 2nd, 1st, 7th, 9th, 7th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 7th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, 1st and 1st, 2nd, 14th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 11th, 4th, 3rd and 3rd. That’s 45 of the last 49 (91.8%) coming from the top 10 including 22 from the pole and 38 of 49 (77.5%) from the Fast 6.

Since 2020, the year the Aeroscreen debuted, 13 of the 24 races (54.1%) have been won via a front row starter including 9 of the last 14 (64.2%) and 5 of the 9 (63%) last year. 18 of the 24 (75%) were won from a Fast Six starter while 22 of the last 24 (91.6%) from the top 10.

If you fail to get out of the first round on Friday, you basically have no shot at a win. You also have a very little shot at a podium too. Out of the 42 combined podium trophies up for grabs here (counting the May races too), 36 of them were taken by top 10 starters (85.7%). In fact, the summer race has seen podium finishers of only starters from the top 4 Rows to where at least in the first race, it has opened up plays to see someone come from behind in 3 of the last 4 years.

Podium Starters Of Spring Race Since 2014:

2014: 4th, 3rd, 10th

2015: 1st, 17th, 4th

2016: 1st, 13th, 3rd

2017: 1st, 4th, 8th

2018: 1st, 18th, 2nd

2019: 8th, 2nd, 3rd

2020 (July): 7th, 4th, 20th

2021: 7th, 1st, 4th

2022: 14th, 20th, 1st

2023: 3rd, 5th, 19th

Podium Finishers Of 2nd Race Weekend Here

2020 Race 1 (October): 2nd, 8th, 1st

2020 Race 2 (October): 1st, 2nd, 3rd

2021: 2nd, 3rd, 5th

2022: 2nd, 6th, 4th

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Favorites

Alex Palou 

He was 3rd in May 2021, had a fast car in May 2022 before going off course in the rain, had a podium going before his engine blew in Aug. 2021 and won by 16.8-seconds this past May. Palou has won each of the last three races on natural road courses at that. He has the 2nd most podium finishes (13) on natural road courses since 2020 but double the amount of wins (7) than the next best (3). Coming into the race weekend, he’s finished 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 8th, 3rd, 3rd in the last 7 races.

Arrow McLaren

They took 2 of the 3 podium spots in May and had all three cars finish in the top five at that. Felix Rosenqvist was 6th and fifth the last two in May’s and 9th last July. He qualified 6th, 1st and 2nd respectively in his last three efforts. My only concern for him is the fact that in his last 6 finishes, he’s came home 20th, 25th, 10th, 13th, 4th and now 22nd.

Pato O’Ward has two 5th placed finishes in his last 6 starts here and runner-up this past May. O’Ward also has five top 5 starting spots in his last six starts here, but three of those finishes have also been 12th or worse. Still, he was fourth in Barber, runner-up in Indy, third in Road America and 8th at Mid-Ohio this season, I think he will be a threat despite only 2 top 5 finishes in the last 8 races on the season.

Alexander Rossi may be the one to watch among this group. He won the last time out here in July, was third after starting 10th this past May and has 6 top 7 finishes in his last 7 tries here including 5 of which in the top 4. He’s finished eighth, third, 10th and 10th respectively on natural road courses in 2023. The problem is, since Road America, he’s finished 10th, 10th, 16th, 10th, 15th and 19th respectively.

Will Power

He has 2 wins and two 3rd place finishes in his last 6 tries here. In fact, Power is a 5-time winner on this track too including 7 total podiums, 348 laps led and six poles. He was third in both Barber back in April and Mid-Ohio in July, but also 12th here in May after starting there, 13th in Road America too. He has the most podiums (14) in the Aeroscreen era on these types of tracks and in a tie for the second most wins (3). Power has 3 top 5 finishes in the last 5 starts on the season too.

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Sleepers

Colton Herta

He should have pulled off the road course sweep last year. After leading 50 laps and winning last May’s race, he led 17 more laps and well on his way to victory in July before a gearbox failed him while leading towards the end. Herta has 5 top 4 finishes in his last 8 Indy road course starts. 7 of his 9 qualifying efforts here have seen him start in the top 10 too. However, he qualified 14th and finished ninth in May but has been on the pole in each of the last two natural road course events. He has 3 wins on natural road courses. Can he turn around his misfortunes again? He’s finished 9th, 7th, 21st in the last three races.

Kyle Kirkwood

He was with Foyt last year but now driving the car that Rossi won with last July and Kirkwood won with last Sunday. Rossi had 5 top 7 finishes in his last 6 tries in this ride including 4 of which in the top 4. In the Road to Indy, Kirkwood had 5 top 4 finishes including a pair of runner-up finishes and a win in six tries. He qualified sixth in May and has finished in the top 10 in 4 of the last 7 races on the season.

Rahal/Letterman/Lanigan Racing

Lundgaard has been stout in 4 starts here which includes a runner-up last July and a pole and fourth place fun this past May. He’s also qualified 4th, 8th and 6th in the previous races respectively too. On natural road courses this season, he’s qualified 6th and finished there in Barber as well as qualifying 7th and finishing there in Road America. The last time out in Mid-Ohio, he qualified 5th and finished 4th. This is also Jack Harvey’s best track with 4 top 8’s including a podium and a fourth place start in May and Graham Rahal has 12 top 10’s in his last 13 tries too and has finished worse than 7th just once here since 2020 (8 races). He qualified 8th and finished 10th in May. He was on the front row in Mid-Ohio too.

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Fade

Scott Dixon

The good? 12 top 10 finishes in 14 starts. The bad? Just one of the last six finishes here have been better than 8th either (6th in May). Prior to that, he did have four consecutive top two finishes here. It’s qualifying that’s holding him back with his last seven qualifying efforts being 12th, 15th, 16th, 26th, 21st, 20th and 9th respectively. Dixon has also finished 7th, 6th, 4th and 2nd respectively on natural road courses in 2023 and finished 6th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 6th, 5th since May.

Marcus Ericsson 

He finishes well, but not always in the top 5 here. In 9 starts, he has 6 top 10 finishes. However, just 1 of those 6 he’s finished in the top 5 (4th last May). Qualifying has been their crux too. He’s started 9th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 15th, 11th, 18th, 25th and 7th respectively. Ericsson finished 10th, 8th, 6th and 27th respectively on natural road courses this season too. He also has just 1 top 5 finish since his Indy 500 runner-up (7 races) too.

Josef Newgarden

I’d fade him for now… He qualifies well (3rd, 5th last year) but also has just 1 podium in 13 Indy road course tries too. Out of his last five Indy road course races, he’s led just two laps. He was seventh in May. On natural road courses this season, he’s finished 15th, 7th, 2nd and 12th respectively. On the season, he does have 8 top 10 finishes in the last 9 races including 4 top 5’s in the last 6.

Scott McLaughlin

3 of his 4 career wins have come on natural road courses. He also only has two top 10 finishes in 5 tries here too including finishes 23rd, 20th and 16th in his others. While he won at Barber and was also eighth in Road America and fifth at Mid-Ohio too. McLaughlin has 4 straight front row starts on the season but hasn’t won from any of them either.

Romain Grosjean

Runner-up in both races in 2021, however, he’s finished 17th, 16th and 11th since.

Devlin DeFrancesco

He was 21st and 17th in his two May starts and 18th last July here.

Callum Ilott

Was 18th back in May.

Ed Carpenter Racing

They have a pair of podiums including a win here since 2020. Both of which via Rinus VeeKay who has 4 top six results here in 8 tries. Still, they were 13-19 in May. Ryan Hunter-Reay is in Conor Daly’s ride for which Daly was 5th in May 2022 and always qualified well.

Helio Castroneves

His last 6 finishes have been 21st, 20th, 21st, 21st, 14th,19th and 22nd respectively.

Simon Pagenaud

He was runner-up in the rain in May 2022 and has 3 total wins here and 5 podiums. However, in his other 2 starts with MSR, they failed him both times.

David Malukas

Was 12th and 13th last year as a rookie. He was 9th in USF2000 in 2017, 7th and 10th in Pro Mazda in 2018, 6th in both Light races in 2019 but 2nd and 1st in both Light Races in 2021 too. He was punted by teammate Sting Ray Robb in May which left him 26th.

Sting Ray Robb

I struggle to see a rookie winning here. In his rookie Indy Lights season on this track, he was 9th and 10th respectively. In his rookie Indy Pro 2000 season, he was 7th in both races. He did sweep the 2020 weekend with three wins in three races here in the Indy Pro 2000 Series and third in both Lights races last year, but it was his first year to which he faced the learning curve. He was last in May.

AJ Foyt Racing

Not their best track especially after going 15-26-27 last May, 23-24 this May and 21-23 last July. In Indy Lights, Benjamin Pedersen was only 10th, 9th, 11th and 4th respectively here too.