NASHVILLE — This is a tough race to figure out because track position and starting spot truly doesn’t matter here. Sunday’s Big Machine Music City Grand Prix (12 p.m. ET, NBC, INDYCAR Radio Network) will mark just the third race ever here. Chip Ganassi Racing has won the previous two stops and are 2-for-4 this season to go along with being winners in 4 of the last 6 street races in general.

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Honda is a perfect 4-for-4 on street courses this season with taking 9 of the 15 podiums too. It went Ganassi-McLaren-Ganassi in St. Pete, Andretti-Andretti-Ganassi in Long Beach, Ganassi-Penske-McLaren in Detroit and RLL-Ganassi-Andretti in Toronto.

This has become an Andretti vs. Ganassi battle on street courses in regards to speed.

In Long Beach, the two organizations swept the entire top five of the finishing order and had 6 of the top 8 finishers in general.

Outside of that, Andretti has had outright pace on these tracks, but haven’t delivered finishes.

In Toronto, they went 1-2-4 in Friday’s practice and 1-2 on Saturday. Then rain hit and relegated them to starting 8th, 9th, 14th and 22nd. Just two cars saw the checkered flag as Devlin DeFrancesco went out with an electrical problem while Romain Grosjean crashed. Kyle Kirkwood was the lead on his strategy but punted Helio Castroneves which sparked an unavoidable contact penalty. Colton Herta was the only one to deliver a respectable outing in 3rd. They went 3-15-22-23 on race day.

Long Beach is the only time that they put it all together in going 1-2 in the race. St. Pete they had 3 of the 4 cars make the Fast Six, but Grosjean crashed in going for the lead with 29 to go. Kirkwood ran over Jack Harvey, Herta was hip checked by Will Power and DeFrancesco went flying on an opening lap crash.

Detroit saw Kirkwood have speed but crash in the second round of qualifying. Herta found the wall in the opening round. Grosjean started third but crashed in the race.

Now, can we get a true Andretti vs. Ganassi battle on Sunday?

In Detroit, Penske and McLaren stormed back with Penske having all 3 cars in the top seven of the starting lineup and McLaren with all three in the top 12 while Andretti was 3-12-17-24 too. Ganassi had three of their cars start in the top six.

In the inaugural race here, Ganassi and Andretti went 1-2-3-4.

Last year, they went 1-3-4-5.

The two races here were also messy ones too. Out of the 160 combined race laps turned, 43% of them were under caution periods with 38% of the cars being loaded back on the haulers early after crashes.

The inaugural race saw 9 cautions for 33 laps. Last year’s was one less yellow (8) but more caution laps (36).

Nashville is a race to where you need luck to win. Pure speed doesn’t necessarily win here. Both winners prove that. But you also can pass if you have a good car too though. 5 of the top 6 finishers last year rebounded from being outside the top 10 to finish there.

Qualifying hasn’t mattered here either.

Starting spot of Top 5 finishers in 2021: 18th, 2nd 10th, 14th, 13th

Starting spot of Top 5 finishers in 2022: 14th, 1st, 4th, 17th, 23rd

This year, track position is back. 3 of the 4 races were won from the pole and the other from fourth. In fact, 6 of the last 9 street races in general were won from the front row and 7 of the 9 from the top two rows.

Top 5 Picks

1. 26 Herta – He gets redemption on Sunday and fits the bill of being a Honda and Andretti or Ganassi car too. Herta enters having a podium in Toronto and starts third too. 3 of the last 5 races this season were won from Row 2 as has 7 of 12 races this season in total.
2. 10 Palou – Another Row 2 driver getting on the podium. He was 3rd here last year and runner-up in Toronto. When starting in the 2nd row (4th Long Beach, 3rd GMR Grand Prix, 3rd Road America, 4th Mid-Ohio) Palou has finished 5th, 1st, 1st, 1st respectively.
3. 27 Kirkwood – I feel like he’s an excellent sleeper choice here with Andretti being strong here and on street courses in general.
4. 3 McLaughlin – They’ve admitted to swinging for the fences and I think it costs him a podium. He has the speed to win but in his other 4 times on the front row this season, he has just 1 podium.
5. 9 Dixon – 2nd in 2021 and 1st last year. Hard to imagine Dixon doesn’t come from 12th to make some noise.