Final Chance To Control Destiny?
Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, USA, MRN) at the Michigan International Speedway may be one of the final chances left for the drivers that haven’t won a race this season to control their own destiny.
As we enter the final month of the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, this is the 4th to last race on the slate. It’s also the last chance to really control your own destiny.
The next three races on the schedule are Indianapolis (Aug. 13), Watkins Glen (Aug. 20) and Daytona (Aug. 26). All three are wildcard events.
Last Sunday was a good day for those solidly above the cutline. Chris Buescher entered the day +111 so his win wasn’t as shocking as it seems. Kevin Harvick gained 19 points in going from +163 to +182. He scored 6 stage points and finished 10th.
Brad Keselowski gained 29 points with 12 stage points including a stage win. He went from +122 to +151. Bubba Wallace scored 16 stage points and moves from +27 to +54.
All are good.
The rest?
Not so much.
Michael McDowell gained 1 point in going from +17 to +18 but he only finished 22nd. AJ Allmendinger went from -17 in 18th to -22 in 18th. He crossed the finish line in 27th.
Daniel Suarez had a miserable day in a 33rd place effort. He went from -23 to -34.
Three drivers did gain though but are still behind.
Ty Gibbs scored 3 stage points and finished 15th. That gained him 10 points on the cut line in going from -28 in 19th to -18 in 17th.
Chase Elliott finished 13th with 7 stage points. He went from -56 to -40 now.
Alex Bowman went from -46 to -42 but falls to 21st. He finished 18th.
Austin Cindric finished 26th and went from -60 to -64.
With 2 road courses and a superspeedway left, it will make Harvick, Keselowski and Wallace uneasy still.
Say McDowell and Allmendinger win in this stretch, that pushes Wallace out. If Bowman or Elliott find a way to win, then Keselowski could just as easily be out too.
Can You Build Momentum In This Stretch?
With the final 4 races during the final month of the regular season now ahead, one has to wonder in another season of unpredictability, can you build momentum starting now to enter the playoffs hot?
We’ve seen this in all sports before. Whomever is on a hot streak coming into the postseason are usually the ones to triumph in the end.
Last year, Joey Logano had 3 top six finishes over the final four weeks of the regular season.
In 2021, Kyle Larson had 3 top 3 finishes over the final 4 weeks of the regular season.
In 2020, Chase Elliott had 3 top 5’s over the final 4 races.
In 2019, Kyle Busch had 3 top 6’s in the same stretch.
In 2018, Joey Logano had 3 top 10’s including 2 top 4’s over the final 3 weeks.
For 2017, Martin Truex Jr. had just 2 top 10’s and 1 top 5 over the final 4 week stretch, but prior to those 4 races he had three straight top 3’s.
In 2016, Jimmie Johnson had 3 top 11’s.
For 2015, Kyle Busch had 4 top 11’s including 3 straight top 8’s to close the regular season out with but on the grander picture, he had 6 top 2 results over the final 11 weeks.
Finally in 2014, Kevin Harvick had 2 top 10’s, both in the top 5 in this stretch.
Moral of the story is, you better be on top of your game at this point, especially at Michigan. Harvick was 2nd in this race in 2014. Busch was 11th in 2015, Johnson was 6th in 2016, Truex Jr. was 2nd in 2017, Logano was 10th in 2018, Busch was 6th in 2019, Elliott was 7th and 9th in the two races run in the doubleheader weekend in 2020, Larson was 3rd in 2022 and Logano 4th last year.
None of the eventual champions were worse than 11th in this race including 4 of them in the top 4.
What makes this final 4 week stretch challenging is you have a high speed 2 mile oval, two road courses and a superspeedway.
Is Ford’s Michigan Reign Coming to an End?
Toyota hasn’t won at Michigan since 2015 as that’s their lone MIS win in their last 20 tries. Chevrolet has been in a similar boat. That’s all because Ford has dominated on this track in their own backyard. The blue ovals are a perfect 8-0 at this this track since 2018 with 4 different drivers winning those 8 races.
Can they pick up another victory on Sunday?
| OEM | Date | Michigan Winner |
| Ford | Sunday, June 10, 2018 | Clint Bowyer |
| Ford | Sunday, August 12, 2018 | Kevin Harvick |
| Ford | Monday, June 10, 2019 | Joey Logano |
| Ford | Sunday, August 11, 2019 | Kevin Harvick |
| Ford | Saturday, August 8, 2020 | Kevin Harvick |
| Ford | Sunday, August 9, 2020 | Kevin Harvick |
| Ford | Sunday, August 22, 2021 Sunday, August 7, 2022 | Ryan Blaney Kevin Harvick |
Eight different manufacturers have won in the NASCAR Cup Series at Michigan; led by Ford with 43 victories; followed by Chevrolet with 26, Mercury (12), Dodge (nine), Toyota (five), Buick (four) Pontiac (four) and Oldsmobile (two).
If any year their streak was going to end, this is the one. However, we were singing this tune last year as well. Coming into Michigan in 2022, the blue ovals had won just twice in the last 18 points paying races and their main drivers are backing their ways into that weekend.
Then Kevin Harvick went out and won.
Similar set of circumstances this season.
On intermediate tracks, they led 48 of 200 laps in Fontana, 14 of 271 in Vegas, 9 of 267 in Kansas, 9 of 295 in Darlington, 201 of 400 at Charlotte, 83 of 243 in Gateway, 2 of 300 in Nashville and 23 of 160 at Pocono.
However, they’re coming off of a win last weekend in Richmond, their third of the season on a day that they put 3 drivers in the top 5 in the end.
“I think our weaknesses were hidden today by the lack of grip in the racetrack, mechanical grip seems to come in,” Joey Logano said. “It’s hard to put the power down as it is. I think just where our weaknesses are were masked.”
Can Hendrick Pick Up 1st Michigan Win Since 2014
Kyle Larson won the Cup race at Fontana last year. February. As a result, we felt like he was the favorite coming here a year ago.
He finished seventh, the top finisher in the Hendrick Motorsports camp. With Chase Elliott finishing runner-up this past February in Fontana, does that give HMS some optimism?
Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t won on the 2-mile track since 2014 and enters reeling at the moment.
HMS didn’t used to be threats in Richmond in general. Prior to the spring race dominance, they had just one win there since 2009 (27 starts) and even that lone victory, was on a late race pit strategy and not with the quickest car.
Then came 1-2-8-24 results this spring including them leading a combined 228 of 400 laps (57%). That’s what makes last Sunday’s race puzzling for them. They never were factors.
Their top finisher was Chase Elliott in 13th. Alex Bowman and Kyle Larson came home 18th and 19th respectively. William Byron was a lap down in 21st.
If not for that late race caution, none of them would have likely been on the lead lap. At the end of the second stage, just Elliott was on the lead lap. They’d finish 14-18-19-20 in that stage.
Which is right about where they finished too.
Elliott did gain 16 points on the playoff cutline, but he hasn’t had a finish better than 10th over the last month. Bowman is -42 now and hasn’t had a top 10 finish since the spring race there (12 tries without one).
Byron has one top five in his last 8 starts with finishes of 13th, 1st, 24th, 14th, 21st over the last month himself.
Larson has finished 36th, 3rd, 20th, 19th now too.
Can they turn it around?
Larson has been great on 2-mile ovals in the past. These realistically were his best tracks.
At one point, Larson had won three straight races in Michigan. He won the second of two stops in 2016 and swept the year in 2017. In three NXS starts at Michigan (2013, 2014, 2015) he finished second, eighth and third respectively.
What about Fontana?
Larson, had five top two finishes in his first seven Cup starts there. In NXS competition at Fontana, Larson finished sixth, first, seventh, eighth and first respectively.
Between Michigan and Fontana, that’s nine top eight finishes in as many tries. For Cup, he had five wins and two runner-ups.
He was third here in 2021 and has to be the top driver to halt this Ford streak. So is Chase Elliott who has 10 top 10’s in his 12 Michigan starts.
Are they up to the challenge to end this drought and stop Ford’s string?
William Byron and Alex Bowman have struggled here which is why HMS’ chances come down to Larson and Elliott.
HMS was 7-9-11-12 last August.
Can Truex/Keselowski Pick Up Michigan Wins?
There’s no doubt about it, both Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. are future NASCAR Hall of Famers. However, for as good as they’ve been over the course of their careers, they’re both winless in Michigan.
Truex is 0-for-32. Keselowski is 0-for-25.
The thing is, it’s not like they haven’t been close before either.
Truex has seven Top-6 finishes in his last 10 Michigan tries, including five in the last six. However, Truex was 11th this year at Fontana.
Keselowski was 15th last year and seventh this year in Fontana is to what gives the Michigan native optimism. While being winless on his home track, he does have seven Top-5 finishes in that span too.
“Yeah, Michigan always has been a great track for what that was Roush, then Roush Fenway. Hopefully it will be that way for RFK,” Keselowski noted. “We know it’s not going to be easy. A lot of competition there. Nice to go in there with a win under your belt.”
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