Josef Newgarden knows what’s at stake ahead. The 32-year-old driver is well aware that he has to capitalize on the final five races of the 2023 season if he wants to have any shot of a third career NTT INDYCAR SERIES title. Just two weeks ago, Newgarden chopped 46 points off from his deficit to Alex Palou.

“I don’t know about you, but that’s a positive result I think leaving the weekend,” he said.

“I would have liked it to reach 50 or 60. That sound better, but that’s not where we’re at, and I think we did a pretty good job given what was in our control this weekend.”

Now, can he control the weekend in Nashville.

The Hendersonville, Tennessee native is back home to hopefully complete the trifecta. He was honored by on Monday by state officials for winning the Indianapolis 500. He’s also won Long Beach over his career too. That happened last year. Now, the next biggest race for him – this one.

He’d love nothing more to win in front of his home fans, especially coming into this weekend as the reigning Indy 500 champion.

Plus, a win on Sunday would hold a massive significance in the fact that it would keep his title hopes alive heading back to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway next weekend for his first visit back to the famed track since his emotional May 28 triumph.

Newgarden is coming along. He’s had four top two finishes and 5 top 5 finishes over the last 7 races. It’s just Palou has been that much better.

For the Indy 500, it was Newgarden 1st and Palou 4th. For Detroit it was Palou 1st and Newgarden 10th. In Road America, it was Palou 1st again and Newgarden 2nd. Toronto was Palou 2nd and Newgarden 5th. Iowa was Newgarden 1st and Palou 8th followed by Newgarden 1st and Palou 3rd.

It’s just that 17th place finish in St. Pete when Newgarden’s engine ran hot at the end. It was ninth in Long Beach with a badly timed caution while running in the top two which forced him to save fuel in the end dropping him from a top 5 to 9th. It was 15th in Barber when he had damage.

That’s why he’s facing more wins ahead.

“I think that’s the unknown,” Newgarden said over the final 5 races now. “We have been a little bit too up and down across the board. We’ve talked about this before.

“It’s just, yeah, I don’t think we have the consistency that we want as a team. When you look at every track type, we’re probably bouncing up and down a little bit too much.

“There’s no doubt that the ovals, particularly the race package has been very strong for us. It’s hard to complain about our race cars on ovals these days. They’re very, very good.

“It’s a complex schedule on the way out. We’ve got to do street course, road course, oval, back to two road courses, and yeah, it is a question mark. We definitely have to elevate our game on where we’ve been the first half of the year. There’s no doubt.

“I think that Alex and his crew, they’re in a really good spot. They’ve had what appears to be a pretty consistent program. We’ve got to elevate to their level and just execute.

“You just never know what’s going to happen. I think if we can be excellent on the back half of the schedule, then anything is possible.”

He’s won on the Indy road course. Then it’s to World Wide Technology Raceway to where he has to be the favorite.

Newgarden is THE short oval king. He’s won 6 races here, 4-for-7 at World Wide Technology Raceway and also has a 2018 win at Phoenix as well. That’s 11 of his 29 wins (37.9%) on short ovals.

In fact, each of his last 6 race wins have come on ovals as has 8 of his last 10 wins (80%) in general. 14 of his 29 wins (48.2%) were on ovals.

Newgarden’s led 111 or more laps in 9 of his last 11 Iowa starts including six wins, a pair of runner-ups, a fourth, fifth and sixth place result in the last 12 tries.

This stretch this month will dictate if he’s still mathematically alive heading to the final two week stretch in September of if Palou is out of reach.

“I’m very aware of it. I’ve seen it climb from the beginning of the season,” said Newgarden. “Alex (Palou) has had a great run. He’s really had no bad races. I explained this in the past that, when you’re a great driver like Alex and he’s got a great team around him and you don’t have any bad races, that is what happens points-wise. You build up a cushion the way they have.

“It’s a tough deficit that we’re in. I’m aware of it. I’m not putting any pressure on this weekend or to the end of the year. It kind of is what it is, right? I can’t control what happens with Alex. I think the odds are higher that he has some bad luck at some point, but that doesn’t mean it’s ever going to come. It just may be a great year for those guys where they don’t ever truly see it, and that’s okay.

“I’ve just had to learn over the years that you can’t control these things. You really can’t. I focus on trying to be the best that we can be every weekend. This weekend’s no different. It’s just you’re dealing with that scenario that you brought up that everyone expects us to be really good here and win a couple of races. I know that.

“Regardless of that, I just try to make sure we do the best job.”

He’s done it before.

In a six-race span to end the 2020 season, Newgarden nearly erased that 117 gap by having five top four finishes — four of those in the top two. Scott Dixon only had one podium and two top fives to narrowly hold off the hard charging Newgarden.

He missed out on the championship by only 16 points. While he was hopeful of having this year’s title wrapped up by time we get to Laguna Seca, those aspirations are long gone. He just needs to make it to the season finale with title hopes still intact.

Weekend’s like Iowa can make it happen.