Eric Smith

FireKeepers Casino 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, USA, MRN) favorites, sleepers, fades, Michigan track trends, etc

TRACK: Michigan International Speedway (2 mile oval) DISTANCE: 200 Laps — STAGE 1: 45 Laps, STAGE 2: 75 Laps, FINAL STAGE: 80 Laps, MILES (400 Miles)

TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

  • Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t won a race at Michigan since 2014.
  • Toyota hasn’t won at Michigan since 2015 as that’s their lone MIS win in their last 20 tries.
  • Ford is undefeated (8-0) since 2018.
  • 5 of the last 7 Michigan winners have come from the top three starting spots. Furthermore, 11 of the last 13 have come from the top 12.
  • Since the stage era began in 2017, 9 of the 10 Michigan races were won by a driver getting stage points in the first stage. Half of the opening stages, saw the eventual race winner come home in the top three there.

TRACK COMPARISONS

The sister track to Fontana. The main difference between Michigan and Fontana though is the actual racing surface. Michigan was repaved recently while Fontana has one of the oldest surfaces on the schedule.

Like Pocono and Fontana, Michigan is big enough to pit and not lose a lap so long as you’re running near the midpack on up. That opens up pit strategy calls to give up stage points for track position. There’s enough space to pass, but you have to have great speed as well as handling to get through the long sweeping corners. Can take 2 tires or no tires to make up ground too.

BROOKLYN, MICHIGAN – AUGUST 07: Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Busch Light Apple #BuschelOfBusch Ford, drives during the NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway on August 07, 2022 in Brooklyn, Michigan. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Favorites

Denny Hamlin (+650)

Hamlin has six Top-8 finishes in his last seven Michigan tries including two of the last five being runner-up finishes at that. He was third a year ago after being second and first in the two stages and sixth this past year in Fontana. Hamlin also led 38 laps last season too. The JGR driver has finished in the Top-7 in each of the last three weeks including a win two weeks ago in Pocono and runner-up last Sunday in Richmond.

Kyle Larson (+700)

We know what he can do at Michigan’s sister track in Fontana, but he’s also had three wins at Michigan too and third and seventh the last two years at that. He won the race at Fontana last year as well.

Kyle Busch (+750)

He may be 1-for-34 at Michigan, but prior to last year’s early race crash, he also had nine consecutive Top-10 finishes there too. Busch won this past February in Fontana and is coming off of a third-place result last Sunday too.

Kevin Harvick (+900)

The defending race winner has five wins in his last seven Michigan tries including six Top-2’s in his last eight starts on the 2-mile oval. He had a Top-5 finish in Fontana this season too. Harvick enters having scored three consecutive Top-10 finishes on the season as well.

BROOKLYN, MICHIGAN – AUGUST 07: Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Busch Light Apple #BuschelOfBusch Ford, and Bubba Wallace, driver of the #23 McDonald’s Toyota, race during the NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway on August 07, 2022 in Brooklyn, Michigan. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Sleepers

Ryan Blaney (+1100)

Good odds here for a driver with six Top-10 finishes in his last eight Michigan tries including a win in 2021. In fact, he had a shot to win Race 2 of 2020 before a crash late. Blaney finished fifth a year ago too. The only thing is, Blaney’s last seven finishes on the season are 31st, 36th, 33rd, ninth, 22nd, 30th and 14th respectively too.

Bubba Wallace (+1400)

He was runner-up a year ago after leading 22 laps. He just led 80 more laps this past Sunday in Richmond and now has three straight Top-12 finishes on the season.

Joey Logano (+1500)

He has six Top-10 finishes in his last eight Michigan tries including a win in 2019, fifth in 2020 and fourth last year. Logano has two Top-4 finishes in the last three weeks too.

Brad Keselowski (+3000)

15th last year and seventh this year in Fontana gives the Michigan native optimism. He’s 0-for-25 on his home track but does have seven Top-5 finishes in that span too. He comes to Michigan on the heels of what could have been a win last week but his team car did reach victory lane instead. Keselowski has three Top-6 finishes in the last four weeks.

Erik Jones (+10000)

Eighth last year worth looking at. Jones also has four Top-11 finishes in the last six weeks too.

AVONDALE, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 05: Chase Elliott, driver of the #9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet, enters his car during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway on November 05, 2022 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Who To Fade?

William Byron (+800)

He was runner-up in 2021 but 12th last year and 25th this year at Fontana. He has only one Top-5 finish in eight Michigan starts and just one Top-5 result in the last eight races on the season as well.

Martin Truex Jr. (+800)

He has seven Top-6 finishes in his last 10 Michigan tries, including five in the last six. However, Truex was 11th this year at Fontana and also 0-for-32 here too. That’s why despite five Top-7 finishes in the last seven weeks including four of which in the Top-3, I’m fading him.

Christopher Bell (+1000)

Not a good start at Michigan for him. He was 13th, 17th, 13th and 26th respectively. He finished 32nd this February in Fontana. He’s also not had a Top-5 finish since his Bristol win on Easter Night (14 races ago). His last six finishes on the season are 18th, 23rd, 29th, eighth and 20th respectively.

Tyler Reddick (+1200)

18th, 24th, 29th and 29th are his Michigan finishes in Cup. He was 34th in Fontana.

Chase Elliott (+1500)

He’s a great fantasy play with 10 Top-10 finishes in 12 Michigan starts, but after three straight runner-ups to start his Cup career at Michigan, he’s not had a Top-5 since though too. He was 11th last year but also runner-up in Fontana this year too which leads me to believe he can achieve a win on Sunday for these odds. He’s only finished 13th, 12th, 10th and 13th the last four weeks too though.

Alex Bowman (+4000)

No top fives with HMS at Michigan including his last four finishes being 21st, 36th, 16th and ninth respectively. He was also eighth in Fontana which leads me to believe he’s a Top-10 contender but not a race winning one. He’s not had a Top-10 finish in his last 12 starts either.

Trackhouse Racing

I don’t like they way that they’re heading. While they were only P24-P25 last year, they were also P3-P4 this year in Fontana. The only thing here is Ross Chastain (+1800) has just two Top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts with only one Top-5 in that span too. His last five finishes on the season are 22nd, 35th, 23rd, 13th and 24th respectively.

Daniel Suarez (+6000) has finished 22nd, 12th, 27th, second, 16th, 36th and 33rd in his last seven starts himself.

Austin Dillon (+10000)

Five of his last six have seen him finish 13th or worse. He did finish ninth in Fontana though and has two Top-10 finishes in his last three starts on the season too.

Chase Briscoe (+25000)

He was 11th in 2021 but 20th a year ago. Briscoe was also only 20th this past February at Fontana too.

Austin Cindric (+30000)

He finished last a year ago and was 28th in Fontana.

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