Team Penske

Scott McLaughlin said in Iowa that they’re going to start swinging for the fences. They proved that in each of the last two Sunday races even. At Toronto, he was second for much of that race, but on a prime opportunity to pit for what was likely the final time, they didn’t pit when they should have. It cost them four spots in the process. In Race 2 at Iowa, he was second at the time of pitting to go off sequence. It cost him three spots in the end too.

That’s 20 points that he’s given away (11 at Toronto, 9 in Iowa) by doing so. But, even if he didn’t take those risks, getting 20 more points back isn’t going to help his championship hopes. He’s 148 points down with five races remaining. He’d be 128 points if they had those decisions back. That would have only moved him up 1 spot in the standings.

With Team Penske needing wins, not podiums, I’m curious how they attack these final 5 races. How often do they split strategies or even just completely go off from the norm.

Honda is a perfect 4-for-4 on street courses in 2023. That’s for both wins and poles. They’ve been on the podium in 9 of the 12 spots. If you go back to last season, they’ve won each of the last 6 races on these tracks too.

Honda stole the show in Chevrolet’s backyard in Detroit and has won each of the two races in Nashville. Honda also has taken 5 of the 6 podium spots here and 9 of the 10 top five positions.

If anyone can stop this momentum, it is this Team Penske trio. They enter having going 1-2-5 in both races at Iowa and led 98.4% (492-for-500) laps that weekend.

They started off 3-for-3 with 3 different drivers on street courses last year but have since gone 0-for-6. In just 2 of the last six, they had the second-place finisher.

They went 9-10-15 in Toronto and 2-6-11 in Nashville a year ago.

This year, they went 7-13-17 in St. Pete, 6-9-10 in Long Beach, 2-7-10 in Detroit and 5-6-14 in Toronto.

That’s just two podiums in the last six tries after having three straight wins. Can they make up for it in Nashville?

They’re finding momentum again. While Ganassi had won 5 of the 1st 9 races, Penske has since gone 2-for-3.

However, this momentum all starts on Saturday and ends with the right amount of execution on Sunday.

“I think the thing that’s hurt us the most is qualifying because our race pace has been really good, strategy has been really good, pit stop’s been great. As a team, we have all struggled the most to extract the most out of the car in qualifying,” Will Power admitted.

Josef Newgarden has qualified 14th, 8th, 5th and 11th on street courses and 7th, 13th, 4th and 15th on natural road courses. That’s why his finishes have been hampered.

Will Power has qualified 10th, 13th, 7th and 6th on the same street tracks and 11th, 12th, 22nd and 7th on natural road courses.

McLaughlin was 6th, 9th, 2nd and 2nd on the streets and 4th, 16th, 18th and 8th on natural terrain tracks.

That’s just the first part. The second is executing.

Newgarden had damage from a first lap incident in Barber dropping him to 15th. Mid-Ohio was purely a lack of a good starting spot. St. Pete he had an engine problem late, Long Beach he was hurt by a ill-time early caution. Detroit he lacked pace and Toronto he overshot his pit on his final stop.

For Power, he had a practice crash on Saturday in Road America that hurt his qualifying spot. That in turn hurt his race finish. St. Pete he punted Colton Herta by accident. Toronto he ran out of fuel coming to the white flag.

McLaughlin crashed with Romain Grosjean while battling for the lead in St. Pete. He and Grosjean had another problem in Detroit. He didn’t pit when he should have in Toronto.

“I think, more than anything, it’s just been — it’s honestly been a really tough year, like we’ve had some good moments, there’s no doubt. Obviously the 500 was just — it was the best moment for everybody this year. Other than that, it’s been a really tough season, really, really tough,” said Newgarden. “It just feels like one of those grinders again. We grinded last year.

“I want to figure out how to get us in a place where we’re not grinding and try to figure it out week to week. I’ve got all the confidence in the world. The tough thing for me is I know the potential of the team, I really do. It’s there. It’s always been there, and I just want us to realize it more.

“We’re continually working on that. For me, I’m just a perfectionist, and I think working towards that potential and maximizing it is what you’re seeing from me.”

These little things have them where they are. It’s also why they have better momentum again. They swept the front row on both days in Iowa and qualified 1-2-3 on the Saturday race and 1-2-7 on Sunday.

McLaughlin finished second from the pole a year ago. He also has qualified on the front row in each of the last two street races on the season. Being held up in Detroit relegated him to 7th and a bad pit call while running second in Toronto dropped him to 16th. He’d gain 10 spots in the end to finish sixth. Still, he’s qualified 2nd, 18th, 8th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd over the last 6 races with finishes of 7th, 8th, 5th, 6th, 2nd, 5th in that time frame. If you take a wide lense at McLaughlin’s season, you’d see that he has 9 top 10 finishes in 12 tries. He had a rough Month of May with starting 16th and finishing there in the GMR Grand Prix and the same in 14th for the Indy 500. He was credited with a 13th place finish in St. Pete but that’s because he crashed with Romain Grosjean while going for the lead with 29 to go. He led 38 laps that day.

Newgarden has a top 10 finish in both races here but he’d love nothing more than to win in Nashville, his home track after winning Long Beach in 2022 and the Indy 500 this year. He’s finished 17th, 9th, 10th and 5th on street races in 2023. However, Newgarden now has 7 top 10 finishes over the last 8 starts including 5 top 5’s in the last 7 at that. Among those 5 top 5’s are 3 wins and a runner-up.

Power just needs to win. He’s finished 14th and 11th here. He did however finish 7th in St. Pete, 6th in Long Beach, 2nd in Detroit and had a podium (3rd place) going in Toronto before running out of gas coming to the white flag which dropped him to 14th in the finishing order. He has 4 top 5 finishes in the last 6 races including 3 of which on the podium.

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Andretti vs. Ganassi Party

Penske is coming, Ganassi is coming back to normal while Andretti is a tough one to figure out. That’s why despite the top speed between Ganassi and Andretti on street courses, just once this season have we’ve seen a true fight for the win between these two teams on street circuits.

Chip Ganassi Racing began last season on street courses 0-for-3. While Team Penske won those first three in 2022, Ganassi was next best in class on these circuits finishing of 2-8-9-23 at St. Pete, 3-6-20-22 in Long Beach and 3-6-7-22 in Detroit.

They’ve since gone 1-5-6-21 in Toronto and 1-3-14-18 in Nashville last year and this year going, 1-3-8-11 in St. Pete, 3-5-8-27 in Long Beach, 1-4-8-9 in Detroit and 2-4-7-11 in Toronto.

They’ve only lost two races on these tracks (6 total) since. They’re also undefeated, 2-for-2, here by two different drivers and have taken 4 of the 6 allotted podium trophies in the first two running’s of this event.

“Nashville has become the most wanted to go to races of the year,” said Scott Dixon. “There is a great atmosphere with downtown racing, especially with the link to this fun city and how the promoters have gotten so involved with the city.

“As a driver, it’s a fun track, but a very tough track that is quite technical. Then, getting into the race, it’s even more demanding with the heat and humidity, but also trying to keep the car off the walls. It’s very bumpy with high speeds and lots of G’s coming off the bridge. There’s plenty of unpredictability, even with us last year and Marcus the year before. It’s been a great place for Chip Ganassi Racing. Two races so far and two victories for this team. We’ll try to keep that tradition going.”

Dixon hasn’t finished worse than second here (2nd, 1st) and was 3rd in St. Pete back in March and while he was last in Long Beach, he had a top five car before that incident with Pato O’Ward, fourth in Detroit and fourth again in Toronto. He’s only finished worse than seventh once all season with results of 7th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 6th over his last 9 races.

Alex Palou may be the next best. He was third here a year ago after being seventh in 2021. On street courses this season, he’s finished eighth, fifth, first and second respectively. He’s scored 5 podiums in the last 6 races run on the season too.

“I’m excited for Nashville,” Palou said. “We know it is going to be tough, but Chip Ganassi Racing has managed to get wins in both years, so hopefully we can make it three in a row. We’ve had a ton of speed there and it will be about surviving to get to victory lane on Sunday. We’ll see about the weather, as it will be warm with potential showers. It is exciting to get to this stretch of the championship run.”

Marcus Ericsson has 2 podiums (1st, 3rd) in 4 street course starts this season and first and 14th in his two starts here. He was fourth on the final lap in Toronto before running out of gas.

“I’m excited for Nashville, where I have good memories having won the race two years ago in the first-ever Music City Grand Prix,” Ericsson said. “It is one of the highlights of my career so far.

Since joining CGR in 2020, no driver has won more street course races (3) than Ericsson (2022: St. Petersburg; 2021: Nashville; Detroit).

He has displayed his street racing prowess yet again this year, leading laps in three of those four such races (St. Petersburg; Detroit; Toronto) thus far. 

“For us, going back to a street course is good,” Ericsson continued. “We know we have a very strong package on street courses, and I feel very comfortable in those races myself. It’s one of my favorite types of racing and I am excited to get back there for a strong weekend. We’re very much in a good position for the championship and we need to have another strong weekend for the No. 8 team and for Chip Ganassi Racing.”

The thing is, while Ganassi won 5 of the first 9 races on the season, they’re 0-for-3 since.

If anyone is going to beat them, watch out for Andretti. They went 3-4 in 2021 and 4-5 last year. Between they and Ganassi, they’ve combined to score 8 of the 10 top 5 finishes here.

In the inaugural race here, Ganassi and Andretti went 1-2-3-4.

Last year, they went 1-3-4-5.

Andretti has had outright pace on these tracks but haven’t delivered finishes.

In Toronto, they went 1-2-4 in Friday’s practice and 1-2 on Saturday. Then rain hit and relegated them to starting 8th, 9th, 14th and 22nd. Just two cars saw the checkered flag as Devlin DeFrancesco went out with an electrical problem while Romain Grosjean crashed. Kyle Kirkwood was the lead on his strategy but punted Helio Castroneves which sparked an unavoidable contact penalty. Colton Herta was the only one to deliver a respectable outing in 3rd. They went 3-15-22-23 on race day.

Long Beach is the only time that they put it all together in going 1-2 in the race. St. Pete they had 3 of the 4 cars make the Fast Six, but Grosjean crashed in going for the lead with 29 to go. Kirkwood ran over Jack Harvey, Herta was hip checked by Will Power and DeFrancesco went flying on an opening lap crash.

Detroit saw Kirkwood have speed but crash in the second round of qualifying. Herta found the wall in the opening round. Grosjean started third but crashed in the race.

Now, can we get a true Andretti vs. Ganassi battle on Sunday?

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Rebounds From Early Race Troubles

Starting position hasn’t mattered much here. In fact, this is a race that even with an early incident you can make up for it later.

Marcus Ericsson went airborne in the inaugural race on a Lap 5 crash. By Lap 33, he was leading. He’d win in the end.

Last year, Scott Dixon was collected in an early race crash too. He had to pit multiple times for repairs, restarted outside the top 20 and later wound up in victory lane in dramatic fashion.

The starting spots of both winners were 18th and 14th. Dixon pit 7 times on Sunday and still landed in victory lane.

These aren’t the only success stories either.

Colton Herta and Alexander Rossi each rebounded from early race troubles to even falling a lap down to still finish in the top 5 last August.

Nashville is a race to where you need luck to win. Pure speed doesn’t necessarily win here. Both winners prove that. But you also can pass if you have a good car too though. 5 of the top 6 finishers last year rebounded from being outside the top 10 to finish there.

Qualifying hasn’t mattered here either.

Starting spot of Top 5 finishers in 2021: 18th, 2nd 10th, 14th, 13th

Starting spot of Top 5 finishers in 2022: 14th, 1st, 4th, 17th, 23rd

So, I’m watching who has troubles on Sunday and when does it happen because they can rebound to maybe win this thing.

Nashville is the equivalent to INDYCAR for what the likes of Daytona or Talladega are to NASCAR. Why?

The series races also on the streets of St. Pete, Long Beach, Detroit and Toronto and none of their races look like this one.

The two races so far run on these city streets were messy ones. Out of the 160 combined race laps turned, 43% of them were under caution periods with 38% of the cars being loaded back on the haulers early after crashes.

The inaugural race saw 9 cautions for 33 laps. Last year’s was one less yellow (8) but more caution laps (36).

St. Pete this year had five cautions for 26 laps (26%) and last year one caution for eight laps (8%). Long Beach had just two cautions for seven laps (8%) this April and four for 14 (16.4%) last year.. Detroit had seven cautions for 32 laps (32%) this year but last year on Belle Isle it was one caution but for no laps as it happened at the end. Toronto last year was four cautions for 15 laps (17.6%) and three for 16 laps (18.7%) last month.

Why is this one so vastly different?

A tight street course is customary no matter where you’re racing. St. Pete has slippery due to new paving, Long Beach is Long Beach and Detroit is just as tight and just as bumpy, if not worse, than Nashville.

Nashville is also bigger than the other four too, so why the carnage?

Is it due to the nature of this track. 10 cars were listed as DNF a year ago due to “contact” but more like upwards of 14 or more cars collected damage at some point during the race. A season low 15 cars saw the checkered flag.

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Pit Cycles

With another street course, it’s going to make Sunday’s race very much that rewards when you pit. That’s why it’s going to make pit cycles interesting too.

Doing the undercut is a move that a lot may try. You also avoid the “danger zone” by doing so and if you luck out and get a caution while trying this strategy, you’re set to flip the field. It’s happened every year here including multiple times in each race.

However, sometimes the overcut works too if you’re minimizing the tire fall off over the course of that said run.

I think the alternate tires are going to fall off over the course of a stint, so doing an overcut while on the greens may not be a wise move. But, doing so on primaries could be open so long as you start the plan early on in the run to save your tires for a longer stint.

That’s why pit cycles and if cautions fly during them are something I’ll be keeping my eye on.

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Points

It’s obviously this time of the year with 5 races remaining, but can anyone catch Alex Palou? He finished third here last year, has 5 podiums in his last 6 starts on the season and even when he’s down on Saturday’s, he arrives on Sunday’s.

Among the final 5 races, he’s won on 3 of the tracks. Next up after here is the Indy road course to where he won by nearly 20 seconds after leading 52 of 85 laps in May. He won at Portland in 2021 and won in Laguna Seca after leading 61 laps and winning by a half a minute.

That’s why I’m curious what Palou can do over the next two weeks because if he maintains this 80 points gap or at least a little less than that, he could have a full race advantage with 3 raecs remaining.

“I hope that before getting to Gateway, it’s not as bad as Iowa in the past, but it’s not been great,” said Palou. “I think I feel a bit more comfortable there, and also we have a bit more performance from the car.

“I need to do the work in Nashville and Indy Road Course before getting there. If we cannot because it’s part of the sport in INDYCAR, and then we’ll have to figure out.

“I’m glad we have those points in the bag, but I’m not comfortable, honestly. I will be comfortable if we won the championship already. We know in INDYCAR with the big swing you can make in only one weekend just by winning and having a bad race, yeah, you can never give up.”

Which is why Palou is likely points racing over the next two weeks. While he said coming into Mid-Ohio that he didn’t want to do so yet, I think he’s admitting that it’s now time. Get to Gateway with a 54+ lead (full race points) in the bag.

The reason for the change in philosophy is also that Josef Newgarden is coming. He’s had four top two finishes and 5 top 5 finishes over the last 7 races. It’s only the fact that Palou has been just that much better for why the points lead is where it is today.

For the Indy 500, it was Newgarden 1st and Palou 4th. For Detroit it was Palou 1st and Newgarden 10th. In Road America, it was Palou 1st again and Newgarden 2nd. Toronto was Palou 2nd and Newgarden 5th. Iowa was Newgarden 1st and Palou 8th followed by Newgarden 1st and Palou 3rd.

It’s just that 17th place finish in St. Pete when Newgarden’s engine ran hot at the end. It was ninth in Long Beach with a badly timed caution while running in the top two which forced him to save fuel in the end dropping him from a top 5 to 9th. It was 15th in Barber when he had damage.

That’s why he’s facing more wins ahead.

Newgarden did exactly what he had to do the last time out at Iowa. Not winning the pole for either race kept him from max points. So he did next best with 106 points accumulated by sweeping both races and leading the most laps in the process.

He’d chop 46 points off his deficit to Alex Palou leaving Iowa with an 80 point gap heading to his home race in Nashville.

“I don’t know about you, but that’s a positive result I think leaving the weekend,” he said then.

“I would have liked it to reach 50 or 60. That sound better, but that’s not where we’re at, and I think we did a pretty good job given what was in our control this weekend.

“I mean, it’s hard not to give kudos to Alex. I think he just did a great job. Clearly we seem to have the upper hand this weekend, and he had a great day today. You know, he maximized what he could, and I think that speaks to what he brings to his program. He maximizes his results. He minimized a loss today. You know, it could have be more, and he just made sure it wasn’t.

“He is a tremendous competitor. Did a great job. I wish we gained more, but I’m not going to be dissatisfied with where we brought it to.”

Can he make up an 80-point gap over 5 races?

He’s done it before.

In a six-race span to end the 2020 season, Newgarden nearly erased that 117 gap by having five top four finishes — four of those in the top two. Scott Dixon only had one podium and two top fives to narrowly hold off the hard charging Newgarden.

He missed out on the championship by only 16 points. While he was hopeful of having this year’s title wrapped up by time we get to Laguna Seca, those aspirations are long gone. He just needs to make it to the season finale with title hopes still intact.

Weekend’s like Iowa can make it happen.

“I think that’s the unknown,” Newgarden said over the final 5 races now. “We have been a little bit too up and down across the board. We’ve talked about this before.

“It’s just, yeah, I don’t think we have the consistency that we want as a team. When you look at every track type, we’re probably bouncing up and down a little bit too much.

“There’s no doubt that the ovals, particularly the race package has been very strong for us. It’s hard to complain about our race cars on ovals these days. They’re very, very good.

“It’s a complex schedule on the way out. We’ve got to do street course, road course, oval, back to two road courses, and yeah, it is a question mark. We definitely have to elevate our game on where we’ve been the first half of the year. There’s no doubt.

“I think that Alex and his crew, they’re in a really good spot. They’ve had what appears to be a pretty consistent program. We’ve got to elevate to their level and just execute.

“You just never know what’s going to happen. I think if we can be excellent on the back half of the schedule, then anything is possible.

 “Alex (Palou) has had a great run. He’s really had no bad races. I explained this in the past that, when you’re a great driver like Alex and he’s got a great team around him and you don’t have any bad races, that is what happens points-wise. You build up a cushion the way they have.

“It’s a tough deficit that we’re in. I’m aware of it. I’m not putting any pressure on this weekend or to the end of the year. It kind of is what it is, right? I can’t control what happens with Alex. I think the odds are higher that he has some bad luck at some point, but that doesn’t mean it’s ever going to come. It just may be a great year for those guys where they don’t ever truly see it, and that’s okay.

“I’ve just had to learn over the years that you can’t control these things. You really can’t. I focus on trying to be the best that we can be every weekend. This weekend’s no different. It’s just you’re dealing with that scenario that you brought up that everyone expects us to be really good here and win a couple of races. I know that.

“Regardless of that, I just try to make sure we do the best job.”

With that said, there’s several drivers behind that are sniffing out wins too.

Scott Dixon has finished worse than seventh once all season with results of 7th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 6th over his last 9 races. He finished 2nd (2021) and 1st (2022) here.

Scott McLaughlin has finished second from the pole a year ago. He also has qualified on the front row in each of the last two street races on the season. Being held up in Detroit relegated him to 7th and a bad pit call while running second in Toronto dropped him to 16th. He’d gain 10 spots in the end to finish sixth. Still, he’s qualified 2nd, 18th, 8th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd over the last 6 races with finishes of 7th, 8th, 5th, 6th, 2nd, 5th in that time frame.

Marcus Ericsson won St. Pete and was the top Ganassi car for most of the Toronto race.

Will Power was 7th in St. Pete, 6th in Long Beach, 2nd in Detroit and 4th coming to the white flag in Toronto. He has 3 top 5 finishes in the last 4 races run.

Christian Lundgaard won the last time out on a street race. Colton Herta was 2nd. The door is open here for someone to steal a win from Palou and Newgarden still.