Tyler Reddick is on the pole for Sunday’s Cook Out 400 (3 p.m. ET, USA, MRN) at the Richmond (VA) Raceway. Can he become the first pole winner in the last 17 NASCAR Cup Series races here to reach victory lane?

For a driver who’s never led a lap in 11 combined Richmond starts, I don’t think so.

So, who does?

My Picks

1. 11 Hamlin – Back Hamlin against a wall and he comes out swinging. I don’t think payback occurs on Sunday as the field may have trouble getting to him. He starts fourth and was runner-up in both races in 2021 including leading 207 laps in the spring and 197 more circuits in the Fall. Hamlin won the 2022 spring race and fourth in the summer to tally 11 Top-6 finishes in his last 14 Richmond starts. The only reason that it’s not 12-for-14 is the fact that he had troubles on pit lane this spring. Hamlin won the second stage and led 71 laps, but that final penalty was a dagger. He was fourth in Martinsville, fifth at Dover and seventh in Loudon on his last three finishes on tracks 1-mile in length or shorter. He enters coming off of a win in Pocono too.
2. 19 Truex Jr. – He has to be one of the favorites, right? That’s why he dropped from +1100 this spring to where he is now. That’s okay though. Truex has eight Top-5 finishes at Richmond in his last 10 tries including four Top-2’s in his last eight at that. He was fourth in the 2022 spring race after leading 80 laps and scoring a stage win while being seventh last summer. He had the race essentially won this spring but a late race caution flew ending any shot of doing so. That’s because he had no tires left to change which dropped him from first to 11th in the end. Truex did end up being third in Martinsville and won Dover and Loudon. He has six Top-5 finishes in the last eight weeks too.
3. 4 Harvick – Worth a look on him this week. He was runner-up and fifth respectively in the last two spring races and won last summer for his ninth Top-8 result in his last 10 Richmond tries. He also has 20 consecutive Top-10 finishes at Phoenix too including what should have been a win this spring and that track is the most similar to Richmond. Harvick enters having scored two straight fourth place finishes on the season too and starts 7th.
4. 9 Elliott – 3 top 5 finishes in his last 5 Richmond starts. This car was runner-up in the spring race.
5. 20 Bell – He starts 29th but I think he can get to the front by the end of the race. If you factor in five Xfinity Series starts too, Bell has nine Top-6 finishes in 11 tries.