Can Red Bull Go Undefeated Entering Summer Break
Red Bull has just topped the most consecutive wins in F1 history at 12. With 1 race left before the summer break, can they go 12-for-12 to begin the season off with via a win in Sunday’s MSC Cruises Belgian Grand Prix (8:55 a.m. ET, ESPN)?
While they topped McLaren in 1988 for most consecutive wins last Sunday, they’re looking to once again top McLaren’s 1988 season for another record – most wins in-a-row to start a season.
McLaren won 11 straight races to begin that year. Red Bull’s 11-for-11 this year but their 12th win spans to the 2022 season finale.
They’ve won 21 of the last 22 races in general and 27 of the last 30 overall. They’ve won the last 2 times in Spa at that, including a 1-2 finish last year, so there’s a very real chance that no one catches them this weekend.
Verstappen won by pole by nearly one full second on Friday (largest gap since 2001) but will have a six-spot grid penalty for a gearbox swap. They elected to do so because this is the place to where the most passing can be done.
Verstappen came from 14th to win a year ago, so being sixth is much better, especially with a margin ahead of the field that he had on Friday. He feels like even with rain in the forecast, he should be able to improve 5 spots.
Verstappen last week became the fifth driver in history to win seven straight races joining – Alberto Ascari, Michael Schumacher, Sebastian Vettel and Nico Rosberg). He’s hopeful of a third straight win in Spa.
The main question is can he pass his teammate Sergio Perez? This was the second straight week that he’s made it to Q3 with this time starting alongside Charles LeClerc on the front row. The last time he was on the front row was Miami back in May.
Perez started second and finished runner-up here a year ago and with Red Bull’s pace this weekend, I expect him to challenge for the lead early and wonder if he can hold off Verstappen for the win.
Verstappen has finished either first or second in every race run this season and while he mentioned that he wants to open an even bigger gap in points over his competition, it would play nicer for Red Bull if Perez leads Verstappen to the finish too.
Oddly enough, Verstappen has never won from a sixth place starting spot before either. If he can though, it will tie Fernando Alonso’s record with a ninth different starting spot to win from.
The thing is, they’d love for Perez to find his confidence fully back and that’s to go out and win on Sunday. After 5 straight times of not being in Q3, he finally made it last Saturday. Granted, he’d only start 9th, however, he’d still rebound to finish on the podium in third for his 2nd podium in the last 3 races.
It was much needed confidence booster with so much attention going to his future with the team past his current contract.
On a weekend that Daniel Ricciardo out qualified his teammate and still finished ahead of him despite an opening lap incident, Perez delivered.
Now, he’s delivering again and quite possibly solidify any doubts of his status with this team with a Spa win on Sunday, especially over Verstappen.
With a crash during Saturday’s sprint race, he could use a confidence booster on Sunday.
Over these last three races too, he too has opened up his lead over the field. At one point, it was looking like he may lose out on being P2 in the drivers standings.
However, he’s finished 3rd, 6th, 3rd in the last three grand prix’ compared to Fernando Alonso being 5th, 7th, 9th. Lewis Hamilton was 8th, 3rd, 4th in the same three races to allow Perez to stay well ahead of them in leading Alonso by 32 points for second and Hamilton by 38.
It was 19 and 35 respectively entering the weekend.
Fight Behind The Red Bull’s
Last week was the first time in months that the same driver finished runner-up in two straight races. Previously, we witnessed 6 straight races with a new driver finishing 2nd.
In Miami, it was Red Bull going 1-2 with Verstappen-Perez. For Monaco it was Aston Martin and Fernando Alonso. Spain was Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton’s turn. Canado was back to Aston Martin and Alonso. Austria was Ferrari and Charles LeClerc. England was Lando Norris and McLaren. Norris was back there last week in Budapest.
“It’s very confusing to me because every single race weekend, it’s someone else,” Verstappen said. “I think is because it’s so close behind that if you get your car in a little bit of a better window, it works on one particular track.
“So for me, I don’t know what’s going to happen in Hungary to be honest, who is going to be quick or the second quickest. The stable factor so far is that every single weekend, it seems like we are on top, which of course is the most important from our side. But again, Hungary completely different track, we will put some upgrades on the car there and hopefully they will work well.”
Can McLaren get a 3rd straight runner-up finish on Sunday or do we see a bigger battle behind the Red Bull’s.
I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that Sergio Perez (starts 2nd) or Max Verstappen (starts 6th) win this race. I think there’s an ever better shot of a 1-2 finish at that which would mark another change in second. But, it’s that battle for third that’s interesting.
While Red Bull may have their own battle for the win, the battle for the final spot on the podium may actually be a better one.
Ferrari looks vastly better this time around in starting P1 and P4. Mercedes stats P3 and P8 but they know why George Russell was .8-seconds slower. Russell came from 19th the finish 6th last week. McLaren starts P5 (Oscar Piastri) and P7 (Lando Norris) and produced a runner-up to Verstappen from Piastri during Saturday’s sprint event.
These three teams made up of six combined drivers all have a great battle for the final spot on the podium.
Ferrari has lacked tire management and have seen the cars take a massive loss of the course of a race. It’s why LeClerc has 8 races with finishing in points but only two podiums and three total top fives. Sainz has 7 finishes between 4th-6th but none better. Can they deliver a season best performance on Sunday?
The only other time LeClerc was on pole here, he won back in 2019. Ironically enough, all of Leclerc’s front row starts this year have come in sprint weekends. Also, it’s wild to think that in 55 past races here, no one has won from the fourth place starting spot, which is where Sainz starts.
This was also Ferrari’s 12th Spa pole topping McLaren’s 11 for most all-time too.
Mercedes is usually the opposite as Ferrari. Not as great in qualifying but fantastic in race conditions.
McLaren has showed up with pace the last three weeks too and look like contenders again. Norris had floor damage which is why he’s starting where he is. Imagine his car fixed.
McLaren warned that despite their strong pace in Austria that they’d not be as strong over the next 2 races in England and Hungary. While they had some upgrades coming, those circuits didn’t lend a helping hand to their car defencies.
The McLaren cars like faster corners and cooler temps. England was overcast on Saturday which allowed for them to start 2-3. They’d finish 2-4.
Hungary is slower turns and hotter conditions. Maybe they’d get caught up back up. Instead, they’d start 3-4 and finish 2-5.
Despite Norris now having finishes of 4th, 2nd, 2nd in the last 3 races and Piastri being 16th (didn’t have upgrade yet), 4th, 5th, they’re tempering their expectations for the rest of the way.
Spa could be better in being a faster circuit, but McLaren warned also that there’s only a few corners there that are high speed. There’s some very slow corners too for which the McLaren’s feel like they aren’t quite all the way there yet.
Still, for Norris to hold off a Red Bull (Sergio Perez) and a Mercedes (Lewis Hamilton) to a runner-up finish last in Hungary, that’s a huge win for them still.
If they in a closely contested battle outscore Ferrari and Mercedes on Sunday, then this could be the new team to rival Red Bull in the near future.
They’ve seem to have passed up Mercedes and Ferrari right now. Bigger picture is Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari have won 189 of the last 193 (97.9%) of the races. That’s all in the hybrid era.
However, Ferrari has 4 wins in the last 100. Mercedes had 111 wins in 160 tries (69%) between 2014 and 2021. Over the last 33, they’re just 1-for-33.
McLaren seems to have found the pace to get among them to break up the “Big 3” party.
Aston Martin/Alpine
Some are wondering where both teams have went. Aston Martin kind of expected this. Alpine…not so much.
For Alpine, they’ve made massive front office moves over the last month which includes a new team principal. You can tell nothing is aligning with the future and they’re frustrated.
They had a double DNF last week and slipped further back. After being P4 in the constructors a year ago, they’re down to 6th and sliding further way from a top five finish.
They’ve had 3 retirements in the last 2 races.
Now, how much further do they fall?
They’re still 36 points clear of both Williams and Haas. Alfa Romeo is 38 points back. I’m not saying that they’re going to go to rock bottom here and fall to 9th out of 10 teams in the constructors, but something is going to have to give.
They had a 100-race plan, but with McLaren’s newfound pace, how much does that hurt things? They lost Fernando Alonso (3rd in points). They felt like they had Oscar Piastri ready (2 straight top 5’s). They also lost him.
How much did McLaren’s pace and how well Alonso and Piastri are doing force changes early at Alpine? They need a strong result heading to summer break.
They finished P5 and P7 here a year ago. They start P12 and P15 on Sunday.
For Aston Martin, they were down last year, rose early but tapered off. That’s not shocking to them in a way though.
Fernando Alonso started the season off strong with results of 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 2nd. He’s had 1 top 4 finish in the last 5.
Why?
It was partially because teams have brought better upgrades. McLaren has gotten WAY faster. Mercedes has also improved their pace too. That’s 4 cars, plus 2 at Red Bull and 2 more in Ferrari makes a much more crowded field in the top 8 spots.
The main reason too is how the schedule laid out. Aston Martin struggles for pace on natural road courses like this one ahead. On street circuits though, Alonso was 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 2nd. That made up 5 of the 1st 6 races.
The last five races, there’s been just one race that ran like a street race (Montreal) for which Alonso was P2. On more natural free flowing tracks, he’s finished 6th, 5th, 7th and 9th. Lance Stroll was 7th, 9th, 9th, 14th and 10th in the same races.
That’s why I’m curious what they do this weekend in Spa.
Alonso started 8th last week and 9th this week to remain as the only driver to reach Q3 at every race this season.
Daniel Ricciardo
Last week was a nice story for which he out qualified and out finished his teammate. Now, he’s having a rough go of it in Spa in qualifying 19th. How does his Sunday go? Can he rise up or is he going to have a frustrating weekend and brought back down to Earth some heading into the month off?
Weather
Right now it looks like maybe weather may not play a role in Sunday’s race, but there’s also a chance that it might too. If so, it has those in F1 concerned about safety. Also, how much of a role in a wet track play on Verstappen’s rise from 6th?
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