7th Different Winner In The Last 7 Races?
Long shots and streaks of different winners are nothing new at the famous Richmond Raceway, and this weekend the 0.75-mile track is riding a streak of six different NASCAR Cup Series winners in the last six races – 2020 Brad Keselowski, 2021 Alex Bowman, 2021 Martin Truex Jr., 2022 Denny Hamlin, 2022 Kevin Harvick and 2023 Kyle Larson. So, who will continue to the streak of different winners this weekend?
Tire Strategy
Teams get 9 sets of tires this weekend but unlike this spring, there was practice and qualifying on Saturday. How many sets did teams burn through then and how many do they have left for Sunday’s 400 lap race?
In the spring race, Martin Truex Jr. pit ran out of tires due to an extra stop in the first stage. All he had left was scuffs for the end. It cost him a win.
Granted, if that late caution for Truex’ teammate Christopher Bell getting into William Byron doesn’t happen, then the yellow never comes out and Truex can cruise to a victory. Instead, a yellow did occur and for a track that’s abrasive on tires like Richmond is, you’re going to want a set laying in the end for a situation just as this one.
Which also creates some strategy plays throughout the race that if there’s a lot of cautions, you may not be able to pit every time for fresh Goodyear rubber. However, there’s also the risk that if you don’t and others do and they get a long green flag run ahead on this stint, then you risk falling multiple laps down.
Which is why tire strategy is a key thing to watch.
Christopher Bell
Christopher Bell started the 2023 season off with six Top-6 finishes in the first eight races. It coincided with a trip to victory lane on Easter Night at Bristol Dirt. However, in the 13 races since, he has just a pair of top six results, both being sixth place at that.
However, maybe Richmond is the spot that he can turn his season back around again.
Bell has nine Top-6 finishes in 11 Richmond starts and that includes five Xfinity Series starts too.
He was fourth and third in 2021, sixth and runner-up last year and fourth in the spring race. He’s led at least 10 laps in three of the last four Richmond races and has done so despite not having a top five starting spot.
On short tracks this season, he was sixth in Phoenix, fourth here, 16th (Martinsville), sixth (Dover) and 29th (Loudon) respectively.
The thing is, he’s also not had a Top-5 finish in each of the last 13 races though either which could make folks wary. Still, a pole in Loudon two races ago was negated by problems on pit road. He’s had the speed, they’ve just not been executing. Eventually, they will. Maybe that comes this weekend despite starting a dismal 29th.
AJ Allmendinger’s Battle To The Front
AJ Allmendinger enters Sunday’s race 17 points below the cutline to the playoffs. The team is making the wild decision to put Allmendinger in one of the Xfinity Series cars this weekend in Road America and since he’ll be racing on Saturday in Wisconsin, he won’t be able to practice and qualify his No. 16 Chevrolet on the Cup Series side in Virginia.
As a result, he’ll start last for Sunday’s Cup race.
Is this all worth it?
By starting that far back on a short track and having only 70 laps to get into the top 10, is that enough time or is this risk going to cause them to miss out on at least stage points in Stage 1?
For a driver that close to the cut line, that’s not entirely worth it in my opinion but Allmendinger and Kaulig disagree. Allmendinger needs Saturday for a confidence booster as it’s no secret that this season is a bit worse than he’d have expected his return to the Cup Series would go.
He walked away on his own accord when he wasn’t having fun in his final days with JTG Daugherty Racing. He was even taking on a reporter role for NBC Sports for their IMSA coverage. Then Kaulig called and wanted his help.
He ran part-time Xfinity Series races and got the itch back. He was having fun again because he was a contender at tracks that he wanted to be at. That led to a full-time opportunity which now led to him back in Cup.
To keep him sharp and to give him the confidence that it takes to win races, he’ll go back down to NASCAR’s version of AAA to have some fun and hopefully reach victory lane.
He feels like that confidence that Saturday could bring far outweighs the detriments by missing practice and starting last in the Cup race on Sunday. He feels like it can make him better in the Cup race which in turn could help get him to the front by the end of the race.
Plus, keep in mind it’s anybody’s race until the checkered flag waves, especially at Richmond Raceway where 12 of the 133 NASCAR Cup Series races (9%) have been won by drivers starting outside the top-20, which is the second-most in the series behind Daytona International Speedway with 14. The deepest in the field that a NASCAR Cup Series race winner has started at Richmond Raceway is 32nd, by Kyle Busch in the April race of 2018.
But, if it goes wrong on Saturday? What’s the impact on Sunday? What’s the impact if he misses stage points and finishes well outside the top 10 in the race?
How Long Drivers Up Front Can Stay There
We’ve got a jumbled up starting lineup for Sunday’s race. Both 23XI Racing drivers have momentum on the season with two straight top 10 finishes, but here in Richmond, neither have ever scored a top 10 finish in Cup competition.
Tyler Reddick has never led a lap in 11 combined NASCAR starts here between the Xfinity Series and Cup Series action. Wallace has one combined lap led in 16 tries himself. His best finish is 13th.
They make up 2 of the top 5 starting spots with Reddick on the pole and Wallace in 5th.
Kyle Busch is on the front row but he says short tracks are their worst this year. He’s finished 8th (Phoenix), 14th (here), 32nd (Bristol Dirt), 21st (Martinsville), 21st (Dover) and 36th (Loudon) on tracks 1-mile in length or shorter this season.
What about Chase Elliott in fourth. Elliott didn’t race this spring but his car finished second. That’s part the luck of pit strategy to get Josh Berry there. Elliott has finished only 10th, 11th and on short tracks this season. While he’s 0-for-14 at Richmond in the Cup Series, he does have 3 top 5 finishes in his last 5 starts too.
William Byron used strategy and strategy only to lead 122 laps in his only Top-5 in 10 Richmond starts last spring. Again, he didn’t have a top five car that day in terms of speed and chances to win. This past spring, he did. He led a race-high 117 laps and finished first and third in the two stages before being spun by Christopher Bell on a late race restart. Prior to the late caution, he was going to finish second. After, he was going to win. Then came Bell’s bumper…
Byron won Phoenix and was fourth in Dover. My only concern is he has one Top-5 finish over the last seven weeks too. Which is also why he dropped from +400 this spring to +900 now. He’s also only had one Top-5 finish in 12 Richmond starts and that’s including his pair of Xfinity Series starts. He’s led 117 or more laps in each of the last two spring races but has never led a lap here in the return trip.
How long do these five drivers stay up in the top six? Denny Hamlin (starting 4th), Kevin Harvick (starting 8th) and Martin Truex Jr. (starting 10th) have won 3 of the last 4 here.
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