TRACK: Streets of Nashville (2.170-mile, 11-turn street course), DISTANCE: 80 Laps (173.600 Miles)
TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS
This is just the third race ever here. Chip Ganassi Racing has won the previous two stops.
The two races were also messy ones. Out of the 160 combined race laps turned, 43% of them were under caution periods with 38% of the cars being loaded back on the haulers early after crashes.
The inaugural race saw 9 cautions for 33 laps. Last year’s was one less yellow (8) but more caution laps (36).
Nashville is a race to where you need luck to win. Pure speed doesn’t necessarily win here. Both winners prove that. But you also can pass if you have a good car too though. 5 of the top 6 finishers last year rebounded from being outside the top 10 to finish there.
Qualifying hasn’t mattered here either.
Starting spot of Top 5 finishers in 2021: 18th, 2nd 10th, 14th, 13th
Starting spot of Top 5 finishers in 2022: 14th, 1st, 4th, 17th, 23rd
This year, track position is back. 3 of the 4 races were won from the pole and the other from fourth. In fact, 6 of the last 9 street races in general were won from the front row and 7 of the 9 from the top two rows.
TRACK COMPARISONS/WHO’S BEEN GOOD ON THEM
If you go back to the start of the 2019 season, we’ve had 20 races on these tracks with 12 different winners. Josef Newgarden (4 wins), Scott Dixon (3 wins), Marcus Ericsson (3 wins) and Colton Herta (2 wins) are the only multi-time winners with 2 of Newgarden’s 4 wins coming in St. Pete.
The big teams are strong on them with Penske and Ganassi each winning 7 of those last 20 races and Andretti with 4. Arrow McLaren Racing and Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing are the only other team to have won.
Penske won 3 of the 5 last year with Ganassi and Scott Dixon taking the other two. Ganassi (Marcus Ericsson, Alex Palou) is 2-for-4 this year with being winners in 4 of the last 6 while Andretti and RLL won the other two this season in Long Beach and Toronto.
Honda is a perfect 4-for-4 on street courses this season with taking 9 of the 15 podiums too. It went Ganassi-McLaren-Ganassi in St. Pete, Andretti-Andretti-Ganassi in Long Beach, Ganassi-Penske-McLaren in Detroit and RLL-Ganassi-Andretti in Toronto.
This has become an Andretti vs. Ganassi battle on street courses in regards to speed.
In Long Beach, the two organizations swept the entire top five of the finishing order and had 6 of the top 8 finishers in general.
Outside of that, Andretti has had outright pace on these tracks, but haven’t delivered finishes.
In Toronto, they went 1-2-4 in Friday’s practice and 1-2 on Saturday. Then rain hit and relegated them to starting 8th, 9th, 14th and 22nd. Just two cars saw the checkered flag as Devlin DeFrancesco went out with an electrical problem while Romain Grosjean crashed. Kyle Kirkwood was the lead on his strategy but punted Helio Castroneves which sparked an unavoidable contact penalty. Colton Herta was the only one to deliver a respectable outing in 3rd. They went 3-15-22-23 on race day.
Long Beach is the only time that they put it all together in going 1-2 in the race. St. Pete they had 3 of the 4 cars make the Fast Six, but Grosjean crashed in going for the lead with 29 to go. Kirkwood ran over Jack Harvey, Herta was hip checked by Will Power and DeFrancesco went flying on an opening lap crash.
Detroit saw Kirkwood have speed but crash in the second round of qualifying. Herta found the wall in the opening round. Grosjean started third but crashed in the race.
Now, can we get a true Andretti vs. Ganassi battle on Sunday?
In Detroit, Penske and McLaren stormed back with Penske having all 3 cars in the top seven of the starting lineup and McLaren with all three in the top 12 while Andretti was 3-12-17-24 too. Ganassi had three of their cars start in the top six.
In the inaugural race here, Ganassi and Andretti went 1-2-3-4.
Last year, they went 1-3-4-5.
Favorites – Ganassi vs. Andretti?
Scott Dixon
Hard to bet against him here. On street courses this season, Dixon has finished 3rd in St. Pete and while he was last in Long Beach, he had a top five car before that incident with O’Ward, fourth in Detroit and fourth again in Toronto. Dixon won last year’s race and was runner-up in 2021. He also enters having scored a top 7 finish in all but 1 race run this year including 9 straight.
Alex Palou
On street courses this season, he’s finished eighth, fifth, first and second respectively. Palou was seventh and third here in his two tries. He also has had a top 8 finish in 13 straight races now including a top 5 in 10 of the last 11. On top of that, he has 6 podiums in the last 8 at that.
Marcus Ericsson
Ericsson has 2 podiums (1st, 3rd) in 4 street course starts this season and first and 14th in his two starts here. He had a top five in Toronto before running out of gas coming to the white flag.
Colton Herta
He won twice on street courses in 2021 and should have had a third in Nashville that year. He was fifth last year. That’s why despite finishes of 20th, 4th, 11th and 3rd on street courses this season, I have my eye on the youngster.
Romain Grosjean
16th the last two years here. However, he has qualified first, third, third and 9th on street tracks this season and if not for bad luck, would have had strong finishes in all. He crashed while going for the lead with 29 to go in St. Pete, he was runner-up in Long Beach and got into Turn 7 too hot in Detroit and slipped from third to seventh entering his first pit stop and crashed with 20 to go while riding in seventh. He crashed in Toronto too.
Kyle Kirkwood
A street course ace. Kirkwood qualified 5th in St. Pete and did so crashing. In Long Beach he started on the pole and won. For Detroit, he crashed with pole potential (was 3rd in both practices) and despite being ran over at the start a dropping to 27th, he rebounded to finish sixth. In Toronto, he was 1st and 2nd in the pair of practice sessions but rain ruined his chances of a strong qualifying in starting 8th. In the race, he was leading his strategy but he made a costly error by punting Helio Castroneves on the second to last restart prompting an avoidable contact penalty. This car (27 ride) was finished fourth last year.
Sleepers
Marcus Armstrong
In four street course tries this season, he’s finished 11th, 8th, 8th and 7th respectively. In a Ganassi car, he’s a strong sleeper choice.
Scott McLaughlin
On street courses this season, he’s finished 13th, 10th, 7th and 6th respectively. He did have a front row in Detroit as well as Toronto and won the pole here a year ago too. McLaughlin was also runner-up last August. He’s qualified on the front row in 4 of the last 6 races on the season with 5 straight top 8 results to show for it too.
Arrow McLaren Racing
Pato O’Ward should have won St. Pete. He finished second. He had the wrong qualifying strategy in Long Beach but a quick car. He had the right race strategy in Detroit before a bad pit stop later compounded by a costly driver error. He was 8th in Toronto. The speed is there.
Alexander Rossi has a pair of top five finishes (4th St. Pete, 5th Detroit) in 4 street course starts and was fourth here a year ago while Felix Rosenqvist went from 7th in Long Beach to 3rd in Detroit and 10th in Toronto in his last three. Rosenqvist also finished in the top 10 (8th, 7th) in both Nashville starts too.
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
Graham Rahal
He’s been solid here with a fifth in 2021 and a ninth place start last year. His teammates picked up the pace for him last year with Christian Lundgaard starting third and finishing eighth and Jack Harvey starting 11th and finishing 10th.
In Toronto, Rahal went from last to ninth while Lundgaard won the pole and the race too.
Fades
Josef Newgarden
Newgarden has been just a top 10 guy, not a top 5 one in street courses lately. Newgarden finished 17th (St. Pete), 9th (Long Beach), 10th (Detroit) and 5th (Toronto) this year on them. He was 10th here in 2021 and sixth last year. However, he’s heating back up again with 3 podiums and 4 top 5 finishes in the last 5 races on the season too.
Will Power
Be wary here. His two Nashville finishes are 14th and 11th. That’s why despite a runner-up in Detroit, seventh in St. Pete, sixth in Long Beach and 14th in Toronto, I’m fading him. He’s a solid fantasy play with 4 top 5 finishes in his last 6 races on the season including 3 on the podium.
Ed Carpenter Racing
Street courses haven’t been a strong suit for them. Conor Daly was 21st, 12th, 12th, 20th and 17th on these tracks respectively last year while Rinus VeeKay was 6th, 13th, 16th, 13th and 12th himself. They each finished outside the top 10 in St. Pete (14-21), Long Beach (23-26), Detroit (15-18) and Toronto (13-26) too.
AJ Foyt Racing
They’ve not won a race since 2013 and were 18-24-25 in St. Pete last season, 10-16-26 in Long Beach, 20-24-27 in Belle Isle, 22-24 in Toronto and 19-25 in Nashville. Benjamin Pedersen is a rookie and Santino Ferrucci is still learning the Foyt program. Pedersen was 27th, 24th, 20th and 27th on street courses this year with Ferrucci 24th, 11th, 21st and 17th.
Callum Ilott
The young driver hasn’t exceled on these types of tracks. He’s finished 19th, 24th, 14th and 15th respectively on them a year ago and also missed Belle Isle due to an injury. While he was 5th in St. Pete, he was 19th in Long Beach, last in Detroit and 18th in Toronto.
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