Can Hendrick Motorsports Stay Dominant Here Or Does JGR Win Out?
Richmond didn’t used to a strong suit for Hendrick Motorsports. Prior to their spring race dominance, they had just one win here since 2009 (27 starts) and even that lone victory, was on a late race pit strategy and not with the quickest car.
Then they came out this past spring with 1-2-8-24 results including them leading a combined 228 of 400 laps (57%). Can they do so again or does this race flip back to Toyota?
Hendrick Motorsports only has 1 win in the last 7 races on the season. Toyota has won 2 straight which is why I think we may need to look at a Toyota rebound instead.
Yes, William Byron and Kyle Larson have earned the favorites distinction, but can they truly back up what they did this spring when everyone is trying to improve and catch them?
Byron used strategy and strategy only to lead 122 laps in his only Top-5 in 10 Richmond starts last spring. Again, he didn’t have a top five car that day in terms of speed and chances to win. This past spring, he did. He led a race-high 117 laps and finished first and third in the two stages before being spun by Christopher Bell on a late race restart. Prior to the late caution, he was going to finish second. After, he was going to win. Then came Bell’s bumper…Byron won Phoenix and was fourth in Dover.
Larson has just two combined top five finishes in his last nine Richmond starts. Both were in the last two spring races which includes a fifth place run in 2022 and a win after leading 93 laps this year. He led a ton of laps in Phoenix and also won at Martinsville to give him short track finishes of fourth (Phoenix), first (Richmond), first (Martinsville), 32nd (Dover) and ?? (Loudon) respectively.
The two I don’t feel good about are Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman.
Elliott didn’t race this spring but his car finished second. That’s part the luck of pit strategy to get Josh Berry there. Elliott has finished only 10th, 11th and on short tracks this season and Richmond isn’t one of his better tracks.
Bowman lucked into that 2021 win for his only Top-5 in 11 Richmond starts. He was eighth this past spring and ninth in Phoenix. Bowman was also 11th in Martinsville too. He’s not had a top 10 finish since the spring race here in April even.
I think this opens the door for Toyota, most notably Joe Gibbs Racing. They dominated Loudon which could be considered a like track to here.
Denny Hamlin should have also won this past spring but pit road kept him from doing so with penalties. Martin Truex Jr. picked up where Hamlin left off and had the race essentially won. Then came a late race caution flying ending any shot of doing so. That’s because he had no tires left to change which dropped him from first to 11th in the end.
I don’t foresee either messing this up a second time around.
Hamlin, coming off of a win in Pocono, was runner-up in both races in 2021 including leading 207 laps in the spring and 197 more circuits in the Fall. Hamlin won the 2022 spring race and fourth in the summer to tally 11 Top-6 finishes in his last 14 Richmond starts. He won the second stage and led 71 laps, but that final penalty was a dagger. He was fourth in Martinsville, fifth at Dover and in Loudon on his last three finishes on tracks 1-mile in length or shorter.
Truex Jr. has eight Top-5 finishes at Richmond in his last 10 tries including four Top-2’s in his last eight at that. He was fourth in the 2022 spring race after leading 80 laps and scoring a stage win while being seventh last summer. He did end up being third in Martinsville and won Dover.
Then you have their teammates.
Christopher Bell was fourth and third respectively in 2021, sixth in the 2022 spring race after leading 63 laps last year after scoring a second-place finish in the second stage. Then, Bell was a runner-up last summer in the return trip. He led 26 laps and finished fourth this past April and has finishes on short tracks this season of sixth, fourth, 16th, sixth and ?? respectively.
Bell qualified in the top five at Phoenix and was sixth in the end too.
Ty Gibbs was ninth this spring and entering on the heels of a top five finish last Sunday in Pocono.
Can SHR Finally Find Glory?
They’ve been down in results this season. Only Kevin Harvick is solidly into the 2023 postseason. Aric Almirola, Ryan Preece and Chase Briscoe sit P26-P27-P31 in points respectively. However, maybe Sunday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 (3 p.m. ET, USA, MRN) is just what they needed to snag the organization’s first win of the season.
Kevin Harvick enters as their favorite and leader. He was runner-up and fifth respectively in the last two spring races and won last summer for his ninth Top-8 result in his last 10 Richmond tries. He also has 20 consecutive Top-10 finishes at Phoenix too including what should have been a win this spring and that track is the most similar to Richmond. He enters having scored consecutive fourth place finishes in back-to-back weeks.
Aric Almirola was dismal in Phoenix (33rd place), but was also 13th here and sixth at Martinsville too. He had a real shot at a win in Loudon before a mid race pit stop derailed those hopes when they didn’t get his tire all the way tightened.
Chase Briscoe won Phoenix last year and was fourth there last November there and seventh this spring. SHR seems to be at their best on short tracks this season with Briscoe being seventh (Phoenix), 12th (Richmond), fifth (Martinsville), 30th (Dover) and 10th at Loudon respectively. He’s accumulated the third most points scored on short tracks this season too.
Ryan Preece won the pole at Martinsville, was 12th in Phoenix, 18th here, 17th in Dover and the only reason he didn’t finish better than 15th in Martinsville was an issue on pit road cost him track position.
Veterans
A then 41-year-old Denny Hamlin won the spring Richmond race last year. He topped a then 46-year-old Kevin Harvick by .552-seconds in the Toyota Owners 400 at the Richmond (VA) Raceway. 41-year-old Martin Truex Jr. was behind them in 4th.
Coming into this weekend, Truex and Hamlin have won the last 2 races and Harvick was 4th in each. One could say they’re the favorites here again on Sunday.
Last year, the racing on the.75-mile short track was everything geared towards the elder statesmen of the sport.
“I think I talked to radio about that before the race. They said, This is going to be a veteran day,” Hamlin said then. “Yeah, it’s tough to really draw a parallel to that. But when you have so many laps at a track like this that is so technical, even though it doesn’t look technical, it is, usually with track knowledge, it matters at this track.
“(Kevin) Harvick has run more laps than I have around here. But Truex, myself, Harvick, we have a ton around here. When our car is not performing how we need it to perform, we can do things to manipulate it, to maximize lap time to at least put us in the game.
“I think being a veteran of the sport probably helps in those instances.”
He’s not wrong. Ryan Blaney led the first 128 laps but once he lost his track position, he lost his pace. It’s why qualifying hasn’t matter here anymore.
At one point, qualifying was everything on this race track in Richmond. It was a track position race. However, that’s maybe since changed and the races here last year were a prime example. Qualifying these cars on tracks like this takes over driving them. You’re getting the most out of your car and driving it in deep in the corners. You’re on top of the wheel. You have to be. However, you race the track vastly different a day later. Quite the opposite really.
If you drive hard in the race, you’ll burn up your tires and fall quickly. It’s why this is a veteran race. There’s a right combination of pushing and saving your tires and the younger drivers who can push hard in qualifying, step too far over the edge in the race. They haven’t mastered the art of finesse yet.
That’s why qualifying is all out pace and no worry on tires. It’s why the race is all worry about tires and slowing enough in your pace to go faster. 3 of the last 5 race winners each started outside the top 10 here. Kyle Larson started ninth this past spring.
These pair of races now are an old fashioned NASCAR race. While I get these types of races aren’t for everybody, this is what makes racing fun.
Cautions are limited and teams try out different strategies. They’re all open. In the second stage last year, six cars were going to try to make it on one stop. Everyone else did it on two. While Joe Gibbs Racing had the top two cars, they were on different strategies.
It paid off last spring when everyone pit on Lap 233 during the caution for the second stage break. Then, the first two early cautions in the final stage to go along with the different philosophies in the final 100 laps left us with what I thought was a thrilling show.
There were stops basically every 30 or so laps with two different cycles. The tire fall off made this fun.
We had 4 green flag pit cycles that race which was almost equal to the amount that we had in the first 6 races combined (5) at that point of the year.
This isn’t the typical new school race where drivers are all bunched up in the end and can just plow over cars to get by. It was spread out and technical. You had to tip toe around the track because the harder you push, the slower you go.
At tracks like Daytona, Fontana, Vegas and Atlanta, you didn’t get that separation. Road courses are a different breed. Intermediate tracks are closely contested. Tracks like Richmond are a welcomed different style and it fits the veterans.
Points
Richmond marks the 5th to last race of the 2023 regular season. Right now, 11 drivers have spots into the postseason. If someone who’s already won a race triumphs on Sunday, every winner will be guaranteed in now as even with a different winner in all four races in August, that would only brings us to 15 winners for 16 spots.
A wildcard would advance.
It’s looking likely we won’t reach more than 16 winners either with just 1 new winner in the last 8 weeks.
This week could be another Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron or Kyle Larson show. If they don’t win, Kevin Harvick could do so. However, he’s the top wildcard right now at +163 so he’d just be an extension to the guaranteed spots, not shaking things up.
He, Brad Keselowski (+122) and Chris Buescher (+111) have to be feeling pretty good. Bubba Wallace (+27) and Michael McDowell (+17) aren’t.
While Wallace is finding his groove again with consecutive top 10 finishes (8th, 11th), there’s also 2 road courses coming up in Indianapolis and Watkins Glen.
McDowell is doing what he needs to do in extending his gap to 17 up. He has 4 top 10’s in the last 7 weeks and is always a threat on superspeedway’s. He’s also great on road courses too so the final 3 races to the regular season won’t scare him like it does other.
Or will it?
AJ Allmendinger has 2 career wins. They came on the Indy road course (2021) and Watkins Glen (2021). He’s been solid on superspeedway’s this season too finishing 6th (Daytona) and 3rd (Atlanta summer race). He’s 17 points behind.
Daniel Suarez (-23) has one career win. It came on a road course.
Ty Gibbs (-28) has JGR power. Austin Cindric (-60) is at his best on road courses (6th at both COTA, Chicago) and even better on superspeedway’s as he was 1st and 3rd in Daytona last year.
You can also not count out the Hendrick Motorsports duo of Alex Bowman (-46) and Chase Elliott (-56) who can win on any given week.
That’s why the next 2 weeks could be repeat winners, but the final 3 may be wild for the final few guaranteed spots.
I’m also watching the top half of the standings too. Martin Truex Jr. leads William Byron by 30 for the regular season points lead. Whomever win the regular season title, nets 15 additional playoff points. Second place gest 10. That’s a gap of 1 race win (5 playoff points) which is massive for the postseason to carry with you.
Denny Hamlin (-55) is really the only other one in true striking distance right now.
Paybacks
With this being the final short track before the playoffs, it’s also the last time to settle any differences too. You’re not going to do it at Michigan or Daytona. With how Watkins Glen is, you can’t do so there. Indianapolis I guess in theory you can, but is it worth it?
Richmond, well it’s a place you most definitely can and we know a few sets of drivers are at odds. Does Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon or Ryan Preece elect to payback Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick or Corey LaJoie from Pocono incidents?
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