This race is going to be a lot easier to pick than the one that we witnessed on Saturday. With not only 90 minutes of practice on Friday, we also have qualifying on Saturday morning and a 250 lap race as well to base our data off of.

So, who wins Sunday’s Hy-Vee One Step 250 (2 p.m. ET, NBC, INDYCAR Radio Network)?

Top Trends

• Just 1 time in 18 races has the pole winner won. That’s not good news for Will Power.
• 6 of the last 9 winners have started in the top 3. That is good news for 2nd place starter Scott McLaughlin and 3rd place starter David Malukas.
• The night races produced winners from further back. The starting spots of the winners during night races? 17th, 7th, 13th, 9th, 3rd, 23rd and 1st respectively.
• The starting spots in the day races? 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 11th, 2nd, 7th and 3rd respectively.
• Ganassi won 2 of the 1st 3 years but 0-for-15 since.
• Andretti won 7 of the 1st 9 races but 0-for-9 since.
• Penske has won 6 of the last 8 with SPM/McLaren and ECR taking the other 2.
• Chevy has swept the podium on Saturday and on both days at Iowa last year in taking 4 of the 5 spots on the lead lap on Saturday of 2022 and a 1-2-3 sweep on Sunday. They went 1-2-3-5 on Sunday taking 8 wins in the last 10 Iowa starts.
• At World Wide Technology Raceway, they’ve won 5 of the 7 races since the return including 3 straight.
• The doubleheader format in general started in the series in 2013 and only two times in 18 tries has someone swept both races in the same weekend. Scott Dixon did it in Toronto in 2013 and Graham Rahal at Belle Isle in 2017.
• 3 of Pato O’Ward’s 4 career trips to victory lane came on the 2nd day of a doubleheader weekend which makes him a strong favorite for Sunday.

Top 5 Picks

1. 3 McLaughlin – I think he learned just enough and has the track position to hold the field off on Sunday. 2nd in practice, 2nd in qualifying in both races, 2nd in Saturday’s race and 3rd in Race 2 last year. McLaughlin has 13 top 5 finishes so far and among his 13 top 5 finishes in the sport, 6 of which came on ovals. He was second in Texas 1 in 2021 and fourth in Gateway that season. Last year, he was second at Texas, third in Iowa 2 and third again in Gateway. This year, he was sixth at Texas and now 2nd in Race 1 at Iowa. He comes to Race 2 on the heels of finishes of 7th (Detroit), 8th (Road America), 5th (Mid-Ohio), 6th (Toronto) and now 2nd respectively.
2. 12 Power – I think Penske goes 1-2 as Power learns what he did wrong on Saturday to cash in a podium. It’s the pole sitter trend as to why I think he doesn’t win. He’s 0-for-7 here when starting first already. His last four Iowa finishes are second, third, second and fifth respectively. Power has 7 top sixes in his last 9 Iowa starts. Somehow though, he’s winless in 16 Iowa tries as well. He finished 3rd and 6th in his last 2 Gateway starts.
3. 2 Newgarden – A clean 1-2-3 sweep for Penske. A doubleheader sweep is rare to do and I think it would be tough for Newgarden who was 1st in practice on Friday and won on Saturday to win again on Sunday despite leading 111 or more laps in 8 of his last 10 Iowa starts. He’s won 50% of his races on ovals but I do think he finishes on the podium, but not on the top step of it on Sunday.
4. 5 O’Ward – Sunday’s are his days with 3 of his 4 wins coming on the backend of a doubleheader weekend 10 of his 18 podiums have come on ovals. However, the Penske’s are just too good. They led 248 of 250 laps on Saturday and with Sunday being another 250 lapper and all 3 Penske’s starting ahead of O’Ward, I do think it’s going to be hard for the Mexican star to pass all three to win. He’s been great in Gateway (3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th) and even better here: 4th, 12th, 2nd, 1st, 3rd. In his last 15 oval starts in general, he’s finished 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 24th and 3rd respectively. He has four straight top eight finishes on the season now too and six in the last eight races in general.
5. 8 Ericsson – Too good not to finish in the top five again. Came from 10th to 5th on Saturday, why not again on Sunday?