This race is a little tougher to predict than Sunday’s in a sense that we’ve only had practice so far. However, we do have 90 minutes worth of practice as well as qualifying to set the field for today’s Hy-Vee Homefront 250 (3 p.m. ET, NBC, INDYCAR Radio Network). So, let’s take a dive at who I expect to not only win, but also challenge for the win as well.

MORE: 5 things I’m watching for Saturday’s Hy-Vee Homefront 250

MORE: Power on season thus far, Toronto’s miscalculation and how he feels about Iowa this weekend

Top Trends

• Just 1 time in 15 races has the pole winner won. That’s not good news for Will Power.
• 5 of the last 8 winners have started in the top 3. That is good news for 2nd place starter Scott McLaughlin and 3rd place starter Josef Newgarden.
• The night races produced winners from further back. The starting spots of the winners during night races? 17th, 7th, 13th, 9th, 3rd, 23rd and 1st respectively.
• The starting spots in the day races? 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 11th, 2nd and 7th respectively.
• Ganassi won 2 of the 1st 3 years but 0-for-14 since.
• Andretti won 7 of the 1st 9 races but 0-for-8 since.
• Penske has won 5 of the last 7 with SPM/McLaren and ECR taking the other 2.
• Chevy has swept the podium on both days at Iowa last year and took 4 of the 5 spots on the lead lap on Saturday and a 1-2-3 sweep on Sunday taking 7 wins in the last 8 Iowa starts.
• At World Wide Technology Raceway, they’ve won 5 of the 7 races since the return including 3 straight.

Top 5 Picks

1. 2 Newgarden – Too good to pass up here. This is his best track. He’s led 111 or more laps in 7 of his last 9 Iowa starts including four wins, a pair of runner-ups, a fourth, fifth and sixth place result in the last 10 tries. He’s won 3 of the last 5 here as well as having scored 5 wins in the last 7 short oval races in general. Newgarden has a pair of top five finishes in the last three races. He was quickest on Friday.
2. 5 O’Ward – I think he breaks up the Penske party up front. He’s been great in Gateway (3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th) and even better here: 4th, 12th, 2nd, 1st. In his last 14 oval starts in general, he’s finished 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd and 24th respectively. He has three straight top eight finishes on the season now too and five in the last seven races in general.
3. 12 Power – Another podium but not good enough to hold the top two drivers on ovals off. His last three Iowa finishes are second, third and second respectively. Power has 6 top sixes in his last 8 Iowa starts. Somehow though, he’s winless in 15 Iowa tries as well. He finished 3rd and 6th in his last 2 Gateway starts. Power ran out of fuel coming to the white flag while running in third at Toronto for which would have been his third podium in the last four races run too.
4. 3 McLaughlin – 2nd in practice, 3 in Race 2 last year. McLaughlin has 12 top 5 finishes so far and among his 12 top 5 finishes in the sport, 5 of which came on ovals. He was second in Texas 1 in 2021 and fourth in Gateway that season. Last year, he was second at Texas, third in Iowa 2 and third again in Gateway. This year, he was sixth at Texas and comes to Iowa on the heels of finishes of 7th (Detroit), 8th (Road America), 5th (Mid-Ohio) and now 6th (Toronto) respectively.
5. 26 Herta – Best Honda car gets their best finishing position. He was quickest in June’s test, won the pole in 2 of the last 3 races entering and finally got a podium finish last Sunday.