Hamilton vs. Verstappen

It’s been since that famous 2021 season finale in Abu Dhabi that we’ve seen a battle between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen. It was then that Hamilton scored his last front row start. It was also that season for which he last won a pole.

Until Saturday.

Hamilton narrowly beat Verstappen for the top starting spot in Sunday’s Qatar Airways Hungarian Grand Prix (8:55 a.m. ET, ESPN). Can he stay there?

The pole was Hamilton’s 9th in Hungary which breaks an F1 record for most poles at a track for a driver. A win there would also be his 9th which too would set a record.

In saying that, a Verstappen win would break the record for most wins in-a-row by a team with this could being Red Bull’s 12th straight. That would break a current tie with McLaren who oh by the way, has both drivers starting in Row 2 (Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri).

That’s relevant if both Hamilton and Verstappen take each other out early. You know Hamilton is going to be overly aggressive to end his 33-race winless drought. He knows Verstappen has a faster car and knows that he needs to get a great start to try and hold him off.

However, Verstappen likely won’t show much love to Hamilton either knowing that the Mercedes cars this season have been great on longer run pace. He can’t let his rival get away early.

They finished 1-2 in 14 of the 22 races run in 2021 including 6 straight to the finish. Are we about to witness another epic battle on Sunday?

Verstappen has scored 11 straight top two finishes and 20 in his last 22 tries. He’s also the defending race winner after leading 20 of 70 laps a year ago from his 10th place start. He has three top two results in his last four tries on this track.

Hamilton has 8 wins in 16 Hungary starts including having six top two finishes in his last seven tries. He’s finished 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd in his last five at that.

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George Russell/Sergio Perez

Russell went from the pole here last year, but suffered a Q1 exit in 2023. It meant he was out-qualified by a team mate at the Hungaroring for the first time. Now, how far can he come back to finish on Sunday?

He finished 3rd last year.

For Perez, he made it to Q3 for the first time in the last six races, and in ninth starts two places higher than last year.

How far can both B drivers climb?

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McLaren

McLaren brought an upgrade to Austria for Lando Norris. It paid dividends for the Brit to score a fourth place finish that day. In the last race in England, further upgrades were enabled, including Oscar Piastri joining Norris with new parts.

They turned heads.

McLaren qualified 2-3. However, some wondered how long they could stay there. Last Saturday was a perfect storm between overcast skies and cooler temperatures. Those conditions suit the McLaren cars.

The McLaren duo never flinched with both cars finishing in the top four including a runner-up by Norris.

Now, with more upgrades and Piastri getting enough to catch back up to Norris in what’s on his car, many are wondering what they can do this weekend.

So far, so good.

Hungary is the exact opposite as to what has made them successful this season. The McLaren cars like faster corners and cooler temps. Hungary is slower turns and hotter conditions.

Which is why this was something to watch out for.

With a Row 2 split, they can easily get at least 1 car on the podium in the end so long as they can manage their pace.

Norris has his fourth top-four start in the last five races.

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Daniel Ricciardo

This one is obvious. How can he do in his debut with AlphaTauri? Like McLaren above, he likes something different than the team can bring. Ricciardo likes the attack the corners. The car at AlphaTauri is at its worst in this aspect.

What gives?

So far, it’s been a solid weekend out of the Australian as he’ll roll off from 13th. That’s better than his teammate in fact as Yuki Tsunoda has now been eliminated in Q1 for four consecutive race weekends for the first time in his career.

Ricciardo’s P13 marked AlphaTauri’s best qualifying performance in the last five races. He also ended the team’s three-race streak without getting a car into Q2.

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Runner-Up Parity

For the 6th straight race, we saw a different car finish runner-up. In Miami, it was Red Bull going 1-2 with Verstappen-Perez. For Monaco it was Aston Martin and Fernando Alonso. Spain was Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton’s turn. Canado was back to Aston Martin and Alonso. Austria was Ferrari and Charles LeClerc. Two weeks ago in England was Lando Norris and McLaren.

“It’s very confusing to me because every single race weekend, it’s someone else,” Verstappen said. “I think is because it’s so close behind that if you get your car in a little bit of a better window, it works on one particular track.

“So for me, I don’t know what’s going to happen in Hungary to be honest, who is going to be quick or the second quickest. The stable factor so far is that every single weekend, it seems like we are on top, which of course is the most important from our side. But again, Hungary completely different track, we will put some upgrades on the car there and hopefully they will work well.”

Who’s up this week for the challenge?

Hamilton who’s on pole makes the most sense, but can he stay there?

McLaren does too but this track is the complete opposite of what they like. They like faster corners in cooler temperatures where Hungary features slower corners and hot conditions. They’ll still start P3-P4.

Aston Martin struggles for pace on natural road courses like this one.

On street circuits, Fernando Alonso was 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 2nd. That made up 5 of the 1st 6 races.

The last four races, there’s been just one race that ran like a street race (Montreal) for which Alonso was P2. On more natural free flowing tracks, he’s finished 6th, 5th, 7th. Lance Stroll was 7th, 9th, 9th and 14th in the same races.

Alonso starts 8th but remains the only driver to reach Q3 at every race this season.

Ferrari qualifies well but fades due to tire fall off.

Charles LeClerc has one top five finish in the last six races on the season. To show how far he’s fallen, LeClerc had finished 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 2nd and 4th respectively in his last five Silverstone tries prior to the last race weekend. So, to come down to ninth was telling. He’s also not had a podium finish in five Hungary starts with finishes instead of 20th, 4th, 11th, 18th and 6th respectively. Carlos Sainz Jr. once again finished 5th or worse (10th in England) just as he’s done for the ninth straight race. Sainz does have 3 top 5 finishes in his last 4 starts there though too.

Maybe it’s Alfa Romeo instead. The Ferrari-powered Alfa Romeo out-qualified both Ferraris in the hands of Zhou Guanyo. He was fifth, improving his career-best qualifying by four places. He hadn’t reached Q3 all season until today.

Valtteri Bottas qualified P7, for his 10th consecutive top-10 start at the Hungaroring, his best run at any track.

Top Stat

Max Verstappen has run away with the points lead, but the race for 2nd behind him has tightened. Sergio Perez leads Fernando Alonso by just 19 points. Lewis Hamilton is 35 points back himself. Carlos Sainz Jr. (-73) and George Russell (-74) are capable to catching him as well.

This five driver battle is better than the one between Verstappen and Perez.

Alonso, Perez and Sainz Jr. each start 8th, 9th and 11th respectively. Hamilton is on the pole.