With 90 minutes of practice, 250 laps of racing and the starting lineup determined for Sunday’s Hy-Vee One Step 250 (2 p.m. ET, NBC, INDYCAR Radio Network), here’s who I’m looking for in a sense of favorites, sleepers and fades.

Top Trends

• Just 1 time in 18 races has the pole winner won. That’s not good news for Will Power.
• 6 of the last 9 winners have started in the top 3. That is good news for 2nd place starter Scott McLaughlin and 3rd place starter David Malukas.
• The night races produced winners from further back. The starting spots of the winners during night races? 17th, 7th, 13th, 9th, 3rd, 23rd and 1st respectively.
• The starting spots in the day races? 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 11th, 2nd, 7th and 3rd respectively.
• Ganassi won 2 of the 1st 3 years but 0-for-15 since.
• Andretti won 7 of the 1st 9 races but 0-for-9 since.
• Penske has won 6 of the last 8 with SPM/McLaren and ECR taking the other 2.
• Chevy has swept the podium on Saturday, swept the podium on both days at Iowa last year and took 4 of the 5 spots on the lead lap on Saturday last year and had 4 cars in the top 5 this year. They also went with a 1-2-3 sweep on Sunday taking 8 wins in the last 10 Iowa starts.
• At World Wide Technology Raceway, they’ve won 5 of the 7 races since the return including 3 straight.
• The doubleheader format in general started in the series in 2013 and only two times in 18 tries has someone swept both races in the same weekend. Scott Dixon did it in Toronto in 2013 and Graham Rahal at Belle Isle in 2017.
• 3 of Pato O’Ward’s 4 career trips to victory lane came on the 2nd day of a doubleheader weekend which makes him a strong favorite for Sunday.

Favorites

Pato O’Ward

He’s been great in Gateway (3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th) and even better here: 4th, 12th, 2nd, 1st, 3rd. In his last 15 oval starts in general, he’s finished 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 24th (crashed while battling for 2nd) and 3rd respectively. He has four straight top eight finishes on the season now too and six in the last eight races in general. My only concern for him is the fact that he starts 11th. He qualified 5th for Race 1 and was 5th quickest in Friday’s practice too.

Josef Newgarden

This is his best track. He’s led 111 or more laps in 8 of his last 10 Iowa starts including five wins, a pair of runner-ups, a fourth, fifth and sixth place result in the last 11 tries. He’s won 4 of the last 6 here as well as having scored 6 wins in the last 8 short oval races in general. He starts in the same spot (7th) as O’Ward won this race from last year. However, just twice in 18 tries has someone swept a race weekend. He nearly did it last year in leading 148 laps, but he crashed while leading in the end.

Scott McLaughlin

McLaughlin has 13 top 5 finishes so far and among his 13 top 5 finishes in the sport, 6 of which came on ovals. He was second in Texas 1 in 2021 and fourth in Gateway that season. Last year, he was second at Texas, third in Iowa 2 and third again in Gateway. This year, he was sixth at Texas and second in Iowa 1. He comes to the weekend finale on the heels of finishes of 7th (Detroit), 8th (Road America), 5th (Mid-Ohio), 6th (Toronto) and 2nd respectively. He was P2 in practice and qualified second for both races this weekend too.

Will Power

His last four Iowa finishes are second, third, second and fifth respectively. Power has 7 top sixes in his last 9 Iowa starts. Somehow though, he’s winless in 16 Iowa tries as well. He finished 3rd and 6th in his last 2 Gateway starts too. He’s scored the last four poles here but has no wins to show for it in the previous 3. He led 119 of the first 121 laps on Saturday but didn’t lead again. He scrapped the wall in Turn 4 on Lap 143 while running second which ruined any shot at a podium.

Marcus Ericsson

5th from 10th on Saturday, why not again on Sunday? He was 3rd quickest in practice on Friday too.

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Sleepers

Scott Dixon

He’s 0-for-17 at Iowa but has been solid here as of last with six straight top six finishes. He has 3 top 8’s in his last four at Gateway too. Also, Dixon has finished 7th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 2nd, 4th and 6th respectively over his last eight starts on the season. In fact, his three finishes prior were 3rd, 5th and 27th. He starts ninth.

Alexander Rossi

Came from 20th to finish 10th on Saturday. He starts 16th on Sunday. He has finished 10th in 3 of his last 4 starts but does also have 7 top 10 finishes in his last 8 races in general too.

Ed Carpenter

Ed Carpenter’s last eight Iowa finishes are – 18th, 12th, 10th, 19th, 15th, 23rd, 25th, 17th and 24th respectively. While he hasn’t had good finishes here recently, he does start fourth.

David Malukas

14th and 8th last year as a rookie, runner-up in Gateway, fourth in Texas and starts third on Sunday. He finished 12th on Saturday.

Helio Castroneves

His last win here came in 2017. He starts 8th and was 14th on Saturday.

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Fades

Alex Palou

He has finished 11th, 14th, 6th, 13th and 8th at Iowa and 15th, 12th, 20th and ninth in Gateway. However, he also has finished 8th, 3rd, 5th, 5th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd and 8th this year too. Palou rolls off 12th.

Takuma Sato

He was third in 2018 but has been 16th or worse in 9 of his 15 Iowa starts including having scored just 3 top 10’s in that span. He rolls off 13th after finishing 9th on Saturday.

Graham Rahal

Despite 2 top 10’s in 3 races prior, he said his car was among the worst handling oval cars that he’s ever had on Saturday. He ran up the track twice with the last one sending him into the Turn 4 wall. That’s why despite qualifying 6th, he finished last Saturday.

Felix Rosenqvist

This car was 3rd and 6th respectively in 2020 with Oliver Askew behind the wheel. Rosenqvist crashed and finished last in Race 1 last year and was seventh in Race 2. He himself was 15th and 14th in 2020’s doubleheader. He finished 13th on Saturday and starts 16th on Sunday.

Romain Grosjean

He did qualify 8th on Saturday but starts 20th today. He’s crashed out of 5 races this season. He was 11th a day ago.