Honda vs. Chevy

A lot of folks wondered if the door to victory lane could be open with 20 cars testing here last month and 2 of the 3 teams not here belong to the Team Penske and Arrow McLaren Racing camps.

“I feel all of these other teams will have closed the gap a bit because it is a doubleheader race,” Will Power said on Wednesday afternoon in the weekly INDYCAR media call. “If you’re going into off-season after last year, you would focus pretty hard on that because of the points available. Maybe Ganassi is a bit better, and we know McLaren is good there.

“I don’t think Andretti tested there. Oh, yes, they did. They did. Yeah, it could be pretty — it will be a pretty fierce race.”

Andretti and Ganassi were among the teams that did test. They each brought four cars to the June test. Meyer Shank Racing brought both cars and RLL brought all three. That’s 13 of the 20 cars right there.

Andretti went 1st (Colton Herta), 11th (Kyle Kirkwood), 12th (Devlin DeFrancesco) and 18th Romain Grosjean). Their satellite team, Meyer Shank Racing, went 3rd (Simon Pagenaud) and 10th (Helio Castroneves).

Herta enters on the heels of his first podium finish of the season last week in Toronto when he finished third.

Ganassi was 4th (Alex Palou), 5th (Scott Dixon), 8th (Takuma Sato) and 9th (Marcus Ericsson).

“Honestly, the test was good,” Palou said. “You always want to be leading at tests, especially if big competitors are not there. They’re amazing. We know they’re going to be up there, Penskes and McLarens.”

Dixon may be 0-for-17 at Iowa, but has been solid here as of last with five straight top five finishes too. He also has 3 top 8’s in his last four at Gateway as well. Also, Dixon has finished 7th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 2nd and 4th respectively over his last seven starts on the season. In fact, his three finishes prior were 3rd, 5th and 27th.

Palou has finished 11th, 14th, 6th and 13th at Iowa and 15th, 12th, 20th and ninth in Gateway. He has a top 8 finish in each of the 10 races run and if you go back to last season, his last 11 finishes are 1st, 8th, 3rd, 5th, 5th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st and 2nd.

He also admits that Iowa and tracks like it, well they’re not strong suits for him. However, having the points lead where it is and having a full days worth of work before showing up this weekend certainly helps his mindset and about how he can attack the .894-mile track this weekend.

“Yeah, I mean, last year was one of the worst weekends for me personally, but not for the team though. I remember it was quite exciting for the team,” he admits.

“We worked a lot on our tire deg, long runs. It’s always good if you can start P1. If you have tire deg like we had, like I had especially on my car last year, you go from third to ninth in one stint, which is what happened.

“I learned a lot on how to drive it better, how to get more confident. I think we made the right step. You always want more. It was good, it was positive. We learned some stuff. Hopefully that gives us some indications on how to make another step before the race.

“But yeah, I struggled quite a lot there. Even in 2020, my first year in INDYCAR, then last year quite a lot. Being a doubleheader it’s obviously worse because it’s double points, let’s say, on the same weekend.”

RLL went 6th (Christian Lundgaard), 7th (Jack Harvey) and 15th (Graham Rahal). They enter rejuvenated with Lundgaard taking the pole as well as the race win in Toronto. Rahal came from last to finish ninth. They’re riding a high wave right now that could see them play a role in things on both days.

The only Chevy teams in Iowa back in June were ECR (2-13-14), Juncos (17th Canapino, Ilott not there) and Foyt (19-20).

Which makes me wonder if the Honda teams figured out their deficit and did it cost Chevy with Penske and McLaren not represented too.

Ganassi won 2 of the first 3 Iowa races run. They’re 0-for-14 since.

Andretti won 7 of the first 9 overall. They’re 0-for-8 since.

So, they know how to get it done at Iowa, it’s just the pendulum has swung against them. Now, does this test swing it back in their favor?

We’ve seen a lot over the recent years, that with testing so limited and race weekend’s being more condensed, when you do test, it’s a massive advantage. We’ll see if it proves to be the case this weekend in Iowa.

Honda has won 9 of the 10 poles this season including eight straight. They’ve also won 7 of the 10 races too. However, they have one Iowa victory since 2016. That came back in 2018.

Last year, Chevy swept the podium on both days in taking 4 of the 5 spots on the lead lap on Saturday’s race last year and a 1-2-3 sweep a day later. They’ve won 7 of the last 8 races here.

From a Chevy’s standpoint, there’s no point of testing at a track that you’ve dominated at lately. Why not go somewhere else to learn a deficit instead?

They instead went to Road America to test.

“We would use that test day on a track that we really would struggle at,” admitted Power. “Unfortunately, we used one of our tests at Road America, and the tire was different, and it really didn’t work out, which happens sometimes.

“We have very good cars there, so we’re hoping that we turn up and have to make minor adjustments, slight tire changes, track degradation.

“Those guys, for sure, I would expect, have improved, which makes it — yes, it will be a tougher race. I think track position is pretty big there because it’s kind of like Texas. If you’re at the back, you’re sitting in very dirty air and tires deg a lot sooner. And guys up front, they don’t, so when they get to the back of the train, they can murder through traffic.

“Yeah, you know how INDYCAR is. What makes it difficult to win.”

Newgarden agreed and said it was a compromise between the camp to choose Road America to test at over Iowa.

“It’s just a compromise. We decided to go to Road America versus here, whereas other teams decided to do it the other way around; right? So it’s not that there’s a secret. We made a choice,” said Newgarden.

“We almost came here. It wasn’t like a clear-cut decision or that it was easy to go to Road America versus this place, but we thought that was an area where we had more opportunity to gain than at Iowa. That’s why we did it.

“We’re going to find out here in 48 hours if that was a good call or not.”

For the Honda teams at Iowa, Power feels like that test was a massive advantage for them. He says that one of their advantages is that this is a short weekend with one practice and for those teams that tested here, they can jump straight into a qualifying run since they already have a ton of data to work off of. With track position being so important at Iowa, you better start up front and with tires being limited being a doubleheader weekend, you only have so much you can do on Friday.

“Yes, you’ve got to try to balance qualifying versus getting race work done in that one practice we have,” he said. “Pretty important to roll off the truck in a good spot, which I can’t see why we wouldn’t.

“That’s the advantage of testing. You’re going to turn up and just go straight out of the box and do a quality run on a new set, whereas we’re going to waste a set of tires just getting up to speed. And you need your tires because you’re limited because you’ve got two races.

“Yeah, that’s — yeah, that’s the disadvantage of not testing, but I expect the car to be good out of the box.”

The only Honda teams not here was Dale Coyne Racing. The rest were here and spent a whole day learning. Was it enough to close the gap?

Friday’s practice and Saturday’s qualified showed maybe not so.

3 of the top 5 speeds belonged to those teams that didn’t test with Josef Newgarden (1st), Scott McLaughlin (2nd) and Pato O’Ward (5th).

“I don’t know. It’s hard to say. Good practice for sure, no doubt. It’s difficult to say what tomorrow and Sunday is going to bring,” Newgarden said.

“I think everybody looks really good. There’s a lot of cars that tested here. Pretty much the whole field tested outside of us in McLaren, and I think everybody looks like they’ve raised their game.

“Legitimately everyone looked like they were levelled up relative to last year. Practice is kind of difficult here just because you’ve got to be ten laps difference on tires makes a huge swing in performance. So it’s hard to assess where everybody is when you’re out there, and it’s hard to get an apples-to-apples comparison.

“Any car that I was up against just felt like they were better than what they were doing last year. It was certainly not as easy to kind of come through the field.

“I think Ryan will be good in that ECR car. He has been good here in the past, and he looks pretty sporty.

“I thought the Ganassi cars looked better than they’ve been. It looked like they were happy at the test, so I think they’ll be difficult. I know McLaren is really strong here.

“So it’s not going to be easy whether it’s qualifying or the race. I think it will be pretty tight up and down the grid. We’ll see what happens.

“I had a really clear run to start out for my Q1 in the beginning. The second two Q-sims I did were not clear. The last one I got a little bit closer to that ultimate time that I did, but yeah, I think either/or it’s going to be tough.

“There’s a lot of other cars out there that probably didn’t get clear Q-sims, and we didn’t maybe see their ultimate pace. I’ll be fascinated to see the morning.

“I think we should be in the mix. It just has this feeling like everyone is way closer than what they were last year. So I’m speaking more about the race, but both sessions I think it’s going to be really close.”

O’Ward agreed.

“Particularly I think we obviously were not here for the test, so they’ve obviously gotten stronger because they had a full day that we didn’t,” he said.

“Well, vice versa. We had a full road in Road America that they didn’t, so you just have to pick your fights and really go to where you think you’re lacking.

“But it’s just — it’s an odd place from day-to-day because, like I said, you can feel like you’re not very strong, and then tomorrow everybody is on the exact same laps on the exact same tires, and then you’re just cruising.

“Like, that happened to me last year. I was kind of, like, eh, and then as soon as everybody is on the same playing field, it was just, like, bye.

“It’s so hard to read. You really don’t know until you get that race one under your belt, and then you are, okay, I need this for race two.

“I think today was a little bit of that. You know, we got some long runs in, but I mean, 40 laps, we still need to go 20 more to finish this stint, and those last 20 laps are usually pretty sketch.”

In qualifying, Power won the pole for both days. McLaughlin will start alongside in each. Newgarden (3rd) and O’Ward (5th) both start up front on race 1.

The curious part was O’Ward’s Arrow McLaren teammates of Alexander Rossi (14th) and Felix Rosenqvist (26th) not being up towards the front in practice not qualifying with Rossi 21, 18th respectively and Rosenqvist 22nd and 16th. Was it because of lack of pace and O’Ward being just that good here?

O’Ward’s been great in Gateway (3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th) and even better here: 4th, 12th, 2nd, 1st. In his last 14 oval starts in general, he’s finished 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd and 24th respectively. He has three straight top eight finishes on the season now too and five in the last seven races in general.

He says he’s not quite there yet in regards to being a contender and feels like they still have some work to do to get his car dialed in. That’s scary to the field in a sense that O’Ward was fastest in the longer run speed charts on 5 lap and 10 lap averages.

“I have no idea where we’re at, to be honest,” he said. “It’s just tough. Around here five laps difference on your tires versus somebody else’s tires, it’s really a world of difference. It’s super easy to kind of spook yourself and feel like you’re not as strong as what you actually are, or you can get a misread and think, I’m a hero, and then you’re not.

“I think tomorrow will be obviously an opportunity to learn more of what everybody has got to work for race two. Yeah, we don’t have more time to really work on the car, so it’s just kind of qualifying and then race that qualifying car.

“I think it will be a dead game just like it always is in 60-something laps per set. Really pretty tall order.”

O’Ward and Newgarden have combined to have won 7 of the last 8 oval races in general with Newgarden winning 6 of the last 8 all by himself. He’s 2-for-2 this season.

On short ovals in general, Newgarden and O’Ward have won five in-a-row dating back to Race 2 at World Wide Technology Raceway in 2020. They’ve also gone 1-2 in 5 of the last 12 oval races too.

Oddly enough, 3 of O’Ward’s 4 career trips to victory lane came on the 2nd day of a doubleheader weekend which makes him a strong favorite for Sunday.

Will anyone beat them this weekend or do they run away with this? How much does not showing up to June’s test cost them performance?

So far, it seems like not so much.

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Strategy

Each team gets 14 sets of tires this weekend. You know you need one set for qualifying. Then, you need to save 4-5 sets each for each race. However, how do you use them?

A 250 lap race with a ton of tire deg opens up a battle of a 3 stop vs. 4 stop strategy. A 3 stopper means getting at least 63-65 laps per stint. It seems like once you get past Lap 50 however, the lap fall off is extreme.

You’re tiptoeing around with going at least 20 mph slower by Laps 50-55 than you were early in the stint.

The thing is, some will elect to just do a 4 stopper. Why not? Why not try qualifying type laps and when the tires start their fall off, to just pit for fresh rubber? While you’ll fall a lap down in doing so, you just have to hope a caution doesn’t fly to pin you a lap down.

If it doesn’t, that extra stop and extra speed if timed right could come out ahead in the end. Which is why with Race 1, I’m watching if pit/tire strategy come into play or does a 3 stopper win out again?

Qualify too far back and you have more deg than the cars in front because you’re in dirty air and scrubbing off speed with sliding around. However, if you have the right tire fall off/downforce levels, you can pass here too.

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Can Will Power Hold Josef Newgarden vs. Pato O’Ward Off

Will Power made mention this week that if Josef Newgarden wasn’t among the NTT INDYCAR SERIES field, then he’d likely have at least a win or two by now at the Iowa Speedway. Power instead, is 0-for-15 at the .894-mile short track tucked into the side of the I-80 cornfields.

“Heading back to Iowa. Yeah, yeah, yeah, one of my favorite tracks. Been trying to win there for years. There’s one guy that seems to prevent it. Yeah, it’s going to be fun,” said Power.

Newgarden’s led 111 or more laps in 7 of his last 9 Iowa starts including four wins, a pair of runner-ups, a fourth, fifth and sixth place result in the last 10 tries. He’s won 3 of the last 5 here as well as having scored 5 wins in the last 7 short oval races in general. Newgarden has a pair of top five finishes in the last three races on the season too.

Power’s last three Iowa finishes are second, third and second respectively. The Aussie also has 6 top sixes in his last 8 Iowa starts in general. 

He for the second straight year, swept both poles. Can he hold Newgarden off later?

You also have Pato O’Ward to deal with too.

O’Ward has been great in Gateway (3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th) and even better here: 4th, 12th, 2nd, 1st. In his last 14 oval starts in general, he’s finished 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd and 24th respectively.

He won the last time out here last July.

The duo has combined to have won 7 of the last 8 oval races in general with Newgarden winning 6 of the last 8 all by himself.

On short ovals in general, Newgarden and O’Ward have won five in-a-row dating back to Race 2 at World Wide Technology Raceway in 2020. They’ve also gone 1-2 in 5 of the last 12 oval races too.

They’ll start 3rd (Newgarden) and 5th (O’Ward) respectively.

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Palou’s Points Lead

Alex Palou has 9 top 5 finishes in-a-row including 5 top 2’s in his last 6 starts on the season. That’s allowed him to open up a 117-point gap on teammate Scott Dixon.

However, both are winless here. Dixon is 0-for-17. Palou struggles on short ovals in general. Does this open the gap?

They were 10th (Dixon) and 15th (Palou) respectively in Friday’s practice.

Josef Newgarden (-126) has won 3 of the last 5 here and is 2-for-2 on ovals this season and was fastest on Friday.

Marcus Ericsson (-142) has four straight top 10 finishes but none of which in the top five. He was P3 in practice.

Pato O’Ward (-143) has 3 top 4 finishes in his last 4 Iowa starts including a win last season. He was 5th in practice. Scott McLaughlin (-159) and Will Power (-175) could vie for wins too. McLaughlin was 2nd overall on Friday too.

I’m wondering if Palou can at least make sure that his points lead is at least 103 points leaving here on Saturday night because if so, he’ll maintain that two race points lead with now 6 races remaining.

Dixon has had a top seven finish in all but one race. In fact, his last eight results are 7th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 2nd and 4th. Can he gain 14 points on Palou on Sunday? Can Newgarden gain 23?

If they don’t, then Palou could even further tiptoe towards clinching this title early. His competition really needs to get this deficit below 100 after Race 1.

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Will Penske Go 1-2-3?

The last time someone went 1-2-3 in an INDYCAR race was in 2020 at Mid-Ohio when Andretti Autosport swept the podium with Colton Herta, Alexander Rossi and Ryan Hunter-Reay. The last time before that was Team Penske in Sonoma in the 2017 season finale with Simon Pagenaud, Josef Newgarden and Will Power.

It’s a feat that’s only happened 13 times in general with Penske doing it 9 of the times.

• 1979 Team Penske at Ontario: BUnser, Mears, MaAndretti
• 1980 Penske at Michigan: MaAndretti, BUnser, Mears
• 1994 Penske at Milwaukee: Unser Jr., Fittipali, Tracy
• 1994 Penske at Portland: Unser Jr., Fittipaldi, Tracy
• 1994 Penske at Mid-Ohio: Unser Jr, Tracy, Fittipaldi
• 1994 Penske a tLoudon: Unser Jr, Tracy, Fittipaldi
• 1994 Penske at Nazareth: Tracy, Unser Jr., Fittipaldi
• 2004 Andretti at Nazareth: Wheldon, Kanaan, Franchitti
• 2005 Andretti at St. Pete: Wheldon, Kanaan, Franchitti, Herta
• 2011 Penske at Sonoma: Power, Castroneves, Briscoe
• 2013 Ganassi at Pocono: Dixon, Kimball, Franchitti
• 2017 Penske at Sonoma: Pagenaud, Newgarden, Power
• 2020 Andretti at Mid-Ohio: Herta, Rossi, Hunter-Reay

Can Penske do so today?

Penske has been the top dog on short ovals in general since 2018 with 9 wins in 13 tries. Josef Newgarden is tops among drivers with winning 7 of those 9 races for Penske himself.