Can Anyone Sweep The Weekend?
The doubleheader format started in the series in 2013 and only two times has someone swept both races in the same weekend. Scott Dixon did it in Toronto in 2013 and Graham Rahal at Belle Isle in 2017.
Last year, Josef Newgarden had a great shot to do so in leading 206 of 250 laps in his Saturday win and cruising to what was shaping up to being a easy win on Sunday. Until his suspension gave out on him while leading.
Newgarden had 1 more pit stop left and was dusting the field on Sunday. He led a race-high 148 laps. However, he failed to sweep the weekend.
2-for-17 now.
This format started with three races (Belle Isle, Toronto, Houston) in 2013, fell to Belle Isle and Houston in 2014 and just Belle Isle as the standalone from 2015 through 2019. During the 2020 season, due to COVID, we had it in Texas, Road America, Iowa, World Wide Technology Raceway, Mid-Ohio and on the IMS road course. Last year it was back to Belle Isle again before moving to here this weekend.
Can McLaren Catch Penske AND Ganassi?
Penske and Ganassi have combined to have won each of the last 10 series championships. As we sit here just past the midseason mark, I struggle to think anyone will top them again this year.
They have six of the top eight in points.
They’ve also won 8 of the 10 races this year and 41 of the 57 (73.2%) of the races with the Aeroscreen. Furthermore, if you go back to the 2022 Indy 500, they’ve combined to have won 18 of the last 23 (81.8%) of the races.
Can anyone stop them moving forward?
McLaren hopes so. They have two drivers in the top 10 in points and hopeful to be the first non “Big 3” team to win a title since 2003.
They’ve been better, but still not winning. Over the last 35 races, they have just two wins. That’s not going to get it done, especially in the fact that the “Big 2” have been dominant at the tracks coming up.
Next up is the Iowa doubleheader. Penske has won 5 of the last 7.
The thing is, Penske has been the top dog on short ovals in general since 2018 with 9 wins in 13 tries. Josef Newgarden is tops among drivers with winning 7 of those 9 races for Penske himself.
On short ovals, this could be a Pato O’Ward vs. Josef Newgarden battle. The duo has combined to have won 7 of the last 8 oval races in general with Newgarden winning 6 of the last 8 by himself. He’s 2-for-2 this season. In fact,Newgarden and O’Ward have won five in-a-row dating back to Race 2 at World Wide Technology Raceway in 2020. They’ve also gone 1-2 in 5 of the last 12 oval races too.
That gets you to Nashville to where Ganassi is 2-for-2. Then it’s to the Indy road course for which Ganassi won with Palou this past May. Penske has won 3 of the 4 return trip weekend’s to the IMS road course.
After that it’s to Gateway. Remember that short oval stat?
The final two races are out west in Portland and Laguna Seca.
Ganassi won Portland in 2021, Penske won in 2022. Ganassi won Laguna Seca last year.
McLaren has to capitalize on the three combined Iowa and Gateway races while finding ways to win at the other tracks as well.
Did Skipping Test Cost Chevrolet Iowa Wins?
Where Honda has the street course reign, Chevy has short ovals. It’s also why Honda was well represented in June’s test here and Chevrolet really wasn’t.
Chevy has swept the podium on both days at Iowa last year and took 4 of the 5 spots on the lead lap on Saturday’s race last year and a 1-2-3 sweep a day later.
Josef Newgarden and Will Power combined to lead 221 of the 250 laps (88%) on Saturday and Newgarden, Power and Pato O’Ward led 293 of 300 laps on Sunday giving the bowties their 7th win in the last 8 Iowa tries including 5 straight. At World Wide Technology Raceway, they’ve won 5 of the 7 races since the return including 3 straight.
“I think Chevy’s done a great job this year giving us drivability and horsepower,” said Power. “It definitely showed this weekend, all the Chevy cars were really strong.
“Yeah, just lucky to be involved with these guys. They’re very, very good at their job.”
O’Ward has made 17 oval starts and has two wins, five runner-up finishes and 13 top six finishes in those races.
“We’ve obviously dominated this weekend,” O’Ward said of Chevy’s power. “It’s been an all-Chevy podium both days. Qualifying was also all Chevy. The power was there. The drivability was there. The reliability was there. Just very crucial part of the season to have that. Yeah, great to have them power us.”
However, Andretti and Ganassi each brought four cars to the June test. Meyer Shank Racing brought both cars and RLL brought all three. That’s 13 of the 20 cars right there.
Andretti went 1st (Colton Herta), 11th (Kyle Kirkwood), 12th (Devlin DeFrancesco) and 18th Romain Grosjean). Their satellite team, Meyer Shank Racing, went 3rd (Simon Pagenaud) and 10th (Helio Castroneves).
Ganassi was 4th (Alex Palou), 5th (Scott Dixon), 8th (Takuma Sato) and 9th (Marcus Ericsson).
RLL went 6th (Christian Lundgaard), 7th (Jack Harvey) and 15th (Graham Rahal).
The only Chevy teams there back in June were ECR (2-13-14), Juncos (17th Canapino, Ilott not there) and Foyt (19-20).
Which makes me wonder if the Honda teams figured out their deficit and did it cost Chevy with Penske and McLaren not represented too.
Ganassi won 2 of the first 3 Iowa races run. They’re 0-for-14 since.
Andretti won 7 of the first 9 overall. They’re 0-for-8 since.
So, they know how to get it done at Iowa, it’s just the pendulum has swung against them. Now, does this test swing it back in their favor?
We’ve seen a lot over the recent years, that with testing so limited and race weekend’s being more condensed, when you do test, it’s a massive advantage. We’ll see if it proves to be the case this weekend in Iowa.
“Honestly, the test was good,” Palou said. “You always want to be leading at tests, especially if big competitors are not there. They’re amazing. We know they’re going to be up there, Penskes and McLarens.”
Palou also admits that Iowa and tracks like it, well they’re not strong suits for him. However, having the points lead where it is and having a full days worth of work before showing up this weekend certainly helps his mindset and about how he can attack the .894-mile track this weekend.
“Yeah, I mean, last year was one of the worst weekends for me personally, but not for the team though. I remember it was quite exciting for the team,” he admits.
“We worked a lot on our tire deg, long runs. It’s always good if you can start P1. If you have tire deg like we had, like I had especially on my car last year, you go from third to ninth in one stint, which is what happened.
“I learned a lot on how to drive it better, how to get more confident. I think we made the right step. You always want more. It was good, it was positive. We learned some stuff. Hopefully that gives us some indications on how to make another step before the race.
“But yeah, I struggled quite a lot there. Even in 2020, my first year in INDYCAR, then last year quite a lot. Being a doubleheader it’s obviously worse because it’s double points, let’s say, on the same weekend.”
Will This Be The Most Physical Race Weekend Of The Season?
We know that racing an INDYCAR is no easy feat. For the speeds that they travel with the types of tracks that they go to and having to maneuver these courses without any power steering has these drivers as true gladiators. But, will this weekend go to the extreme?
“Yeah, I think this weekend is without a doubt going to be the hardest we’ve been pushed in this era of INDYCAR racing for sure, with the aeroscreen, double-header at Iowa in the day,” Daly said. The forecast doesn’t necessarily look super inviting or like wonderful.
“So yeah, we’ve never run the cool shirt yet at an oval, but I think we’re going to try to run the cool shirt this weekend. Certainly in my case I sweat an inordinate amount, so I’ve been drinking a gallon of water a day already this week with a big jug. I’ve got about as much hydration stuff as you could possibly fit into a human body for the next few days, and that’s really it.
“It’s going to be an ice bath after race one, try to do that. It’s going to be maximum effort to try to just make sure you’re not only able to survive but perform. You can probably survive but you also want to be competitive. When you start losing the physical capability, you start losing competitiveness.
“It’s going to be a challenge, and if anyone says it’s not, well, they’re lying directly to your face.”
Iowa has always been one of the more physical tracks on the schedule with turning laps around here in less than 20 seconds while going at speeds in excess of 180 mph. The amount of g-forces and strain on your body here is as high as anywhere else we go to.
See, at other tracks at least you get some straightaways to rest some. In Iowa, you don’t. You’re in a bullring and feel like you’re constantly turning and every time you turn, you add strain to your body.
“Like it’s just a matter of being super, super committed at Iowa, certainly in qualifying, because it’s so fast that like physically it’s literally pulling at your face and your entire body,” Daly told me.
“You’ve just kind of got to get through it and know that the car is going to catch you when you get to the center, even if you’re hopping over all the bumps that there is on the track.”
In saying that, we have 2 races this weekend. Both in the heat of the Iowa afternoons and both being 250-miles each.
How much of a role does this play on the drivers’ fatigue and psyche this weekend?
Plus a pair of day races is rough too. The other day races in Iowa were 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018 and both last year. The night races here were 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2019 and 2020.
Why Does The Pole Position Struggle On Short Ovals?
Qualifying is everything at Iowa. 5 of the last 8 winners have started in the top three. However, in saying that, just 1 time in 15 races has the pole winner actually won.
Why is that?
It’s not just here either.
At Gateway, each of the last nine winners have come from a top five starting spot. However, none of the last seven were from the pole here either. Since the series began coming back in 2017, the race winners came from 2nd, 4th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd and 3rd.
At Iowa, the night races produced winners from further back. The starting spots of the winners during night races? 17th, 7th, 13th, 9th, 3rd, 23rd and 1st respectively.
The starting spots in the day races? 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 11th, 2nd and 7th respectively.
Which means qualifying means something. But, with qualifying being on Saturday morning (8:30 am locally) and practice (3:30 pm locally Friday) as well as the races (2:06 green on Saturday, 1:30 green on Sunday), which setup do you use to qualify on?
You’d like less downforce to gain more speed. However, less downforce and getting in traffic means a tough race car to hang onto. Trim too much could get you a good starting spot but falling behind on track or catching lapped traffic could cost you spots in the race.
Trim too little and you’re draggy and slow and have a ho-hum starting spot. Trends say starting midpack won’t work.
There’s a balance here.
Same for qualifying order. It’s based off entrant points. It goes in reverse order. Going late is better for more tire rubber on track, but going earlier is cooler temperatures in the early morning.
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