Did Skipping June Test Hurt Chevy?

This weekend for the NTT INDYCAR SERIES is a big one. It’s two races that from the drop of the green flag for Saturday’s Hy-Vee Homefront 250 (3 p.m. ET, NBC, INDYCAR Radio Network) to the checkered flag for Sunday’s Hy-Vee One Step 250 (2 p.m. ET, NBC, INDYCAR Radio Network), will award more points in two races than the single-race Indianapolis 500 did in May.

Leaving here, there’s just five races remaining in the 2023 season. Which is why points are of the premium.

Does that add more pressure to the Chevrolet camp to deliver on a track that they’ve been so dominant at?

“I feel all of these other teams will have closed the gap a bit because it is a doubleheader race,” Will Power said on Wednesday afternoon in the weekly INDYCAR media call. “If you’re going into off-season after last year, you would focus pretty hard on that because of the points available. Maybe Ganassi is a bit better, and we know McLaren is good there.

“I don’t think Andretti tested there. Oh, yes, they did. They did. Yeah, it could be pretty — it will be a pretty fierce race.”

Where Honda has the road and street course reign, Chevy has short ovals. It’s also why Honda was well represented in June’s test here and Chevrolet really wasn’t.

From a Chevy’s standpoint, there’s no point of testing at a track that you’ve dominated at lately. Why not go somewhere else to learn a deficit instead?

That’s exactly what they did in going to Road America last month instead.

“We would use that test day on a track that we really would struggle at,” admitted Power. “Unfortunately, we used one of our tests at Road America, and the tire was different, and it really didn’t work out, which happens sometimes.

“We have very good cars there, so we’re hoping that we turn up and have to make minor adjustments, slight tire changes, track degradation.

“Those guys, for sure, I would expect, have improved, which makes it — yes, it will be a tougher race. I think track position is pretty big there because it’s kind of like Texas. If you’re at the back, you’re sitting in very dirty air and tires deg a lot sooner. And guys up front, they don’t, so when they get to the back of the train, they can murder through traffic.

“Yeah, you know how INDYCAR is. What makes it difficult to win? Josef is one of the reasons. He’s just been very good there. He’s just very good at putting it together. That certainly was the closest I’d ever been to him last year. We’ll see if I can improve more this year.”

Last year, Chevy swept the podium on both days in taking 4 of the 5 spots on the lead lap on Saturday’s race last year and a 1-2-3 sweep a day later.

Josef Newgarden and Will Power combined to lead 221 of the 250 laps (88%) on Saturday and Newgarden, Power and Pato O’Ward led 293 of 300 laps on Sunday giving the bowties their 7th win in the last 8 Iowa tries including 5 straight. At World Wide Technology Raceway, they’ve won 5 of the 7 races since the return including 3 straight.

“I think Chevy’s done a great job this year giving us drivability and horsepower,” said Power. “It definitely showed this weekend, all the Chevy cars were really strong.

“Yeah, just lucky to be involved with these guys. They’re very, very good at their job.”

Plus, how much better can Newgarden, O’Ward and Power get here? Power, who’s winless at Iowa, notes that the only reason he’s been shutout is due to Newgarden’s success.

Newgarden has led 111 or more laps in 7 of his last 9 Iowa starts including four wins, a pair of runner-ups, a fourth, fifth and sixth place result in the last 10 tries. He’s won 3 of the last 5 here as well as having scored 5 wins in the last 7 short oval races in general.

You also have O’Ward to deal with too.

O’Ward has been great in Gateway (3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th) and even better here: 4th, 12th, 2nd, 1st. In his last 14 oval starts in general, he’s finished 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd and 24th respectively.

Oddly enough, 3 of his 4 career wins have come on the backend of a doubleheader weekend too.

“We’ve obviously dominated this weekend,” O’Ward said of Chevy’s power. “It’s been an all-Chevy podium both days. Qualifying was also all Chevy. The power was there. The drivability was there. The reliability was there. Just very crucial part of the season to have that. Yeah, great to have them power us.”

The duo has combined to have won 7 of the last 8 oval races in general with Newgarden winning 6 of the last 8 all by himself. He’s 2-for-2 this season.

On short ovals in general, Newgarden and O’Ward have won five in-a-row dating back to Race 2 at World Wide Technology Raceway in 2020. They’ve also gone 1-2 in 5 of the last 12 oval races too.

Oddly enough, 3 of O’Ward’s 4 career trips to victory lane came on the 2nd day of a doubleheader weekend which makes him a strong favorite for Sunday.

Will anyone beat them this weekend or do they run away with this? How much does not showing up to June’s test cost them performance?

For the Honda teams at Iowa, Power feels like that test was a massive advantage for them and says that they could seriously close the gap to Chevy here this weekend as a result.

Honda has won 9 of the 10 poles this season including eight straight. They’ve also won 7 of the 10 races too. However, they have one Iowa victory since 2016. That came back in 2018.

Power says that one of their advantages is that this is a short weekend with one practice and for those teams that tested here, they can jump straight into a qualifying run since they already have a ton of data to work off of. With track position being so important at Iowa, you better start up front and with tires being limited being a doubleheader weekend, you only have so much you can do on Friday.

“Yes, you’ve got to try to balance qualifying versus getting race work done in that one practice we have,” he said. “Pretty important to roll off the truck in a good spot, which I can’t see why we wouldn’t.

“That’s the advantage of testing. You’re going to turn up and just go straight out of the box and do a quality run on a new set, whereas we’re going to waste a set of tires just getting up to speed. And you need your tires because you’re limited because you’ve got two races.

“Yeah, that’s — yeah, that’s the disadvantage of not testing, but I expect the car to be good out of the box.”

Andretti and Ganassi were among the teams that did test. They each brought four cars to the June test. Meyer Shank Racing brought both cars and RLL brought all three. That’s 13 of the 20 cars right there.

Andretti went 1st (Colton Herta), 11th (Kyle Kirkwood), 12th (Devlin DeFrancesco) and 18th Romain Grosjean). Their satellite team, Meyer Shank Racing, went 3rd (Simon Pagenaud) and 10th (Helio Castroneves).

Herta enters on the heels of his first podium finish of the season last week in Toronto when he finished third.

Ganassi was 4th (Alex Palou), 5th (Scott Dixon), 8th (Takuma Sato) and 9th (Marcus Ericsson).

“Honestly, the test was good,” Palou said. “You always want to be leading at tests, especially if big competitors are not there. They’re amazing. We know they’re going to be up there, Penskes and McLarens.”

Dixon may be 0-for-17 at Iowa, but has been solid here as of last with five straight top five finishes too. He also has 3 top 8’s in his last four at Gateway as well. Also, Dixon has finished 7th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 2nd and 4th respectively over his last seven starts on the season. In fact, his three finishes prior were 3rd, 5th and 27th.

Palou has finished 11th, 14th, 6th and 13th at Iowa and 15th, 12th, 20th and ninth in Gateway. He has a top 8 finish in each of the 10 races run and if you go back to last season, his last 11 finishes are 1st, 8th, 3rd, 5th, 5th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st and 2nd.

He also admits that Iowa and tracks like it, well they’re not strong suits for him. However, having the points lead where it is and having a full days worth of work before showing up this weekend certainly helps his mindset and about how he can attack the .894-mile track this weekend.

“Yeah, I mean, last year was one of the worst weekends for me personally, but not for the team though. I remember it was quite exciting for the team,” he admits.

“We worked a lot on our tire deg, long runs. It’s always good if you can start P1. If you have tire deg like we had, like I had especially on my car last year, you go from third to ninth in one stint, which is what happened.

“I learned a lot on how to drive it better, how to get more confident. I think we made the right step. You always want more. It was good, it was positive. We learned some stuff. Hopefully that gives us some indications on how to make another step before the race.

“But yeah, I struggled quite a lot there. Even in 2020, my first year in INDYCAR, then last year quite a lot. Being a doubleheader it’s obviously worse because it’s double points, let’s say, on the same weekend.”

RLL went 6th (Christian Lundgaard), 7th (Jack Harvey) and 15th (Graham Rahal). They enter rejuvenated with Lundgaard taking the pole as well as the race win in Toronto. Rahal came from last to finish ninth. They’re riding a high wave right now that could see them play a role in things on both days.

The only Chevy teams in Iowa back in June were ECR (2-13-14), Juncos (17th Canapino, Ilott not there) and Foyt (19-20).

Which makes me wonder if the Honda teams figured out their deficit and did it cost Chevy with Penske and McLaren not represented too.

Ganassi won 2 of the first 3 Iowa races run. They’re 0-for-14 since.

Andretti won 7 of the first 9 overall. They’re 0-for-8 since.

So, they know how to get it done at Iowa, it’s just the pendulum has swung against them. Now, does this test swing it back in their favor?

We’ve seen a lot over the recent years, that with testing so limited and race weekend’s being more condensed, when you do test, it’s a massive advantage. We’ll see if it proves to be the case this weekend in Iowa.

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Can Power or Dixon Pick Up 1st Career Wins at Iowa?

Josef Newgarden has won twice this year, both on ovals, so we know he’s going to be a threat. Pato O’Ward hasn’t won since this race weekend a year ago and the fact that just twice has someone swept a race weekend leaves the door open for maybe another winner outside of Newgarden and O’Ward.

Could that go to one of the two veterans in the paddock?

Will Power has won 41 times over the course of his storied NTT INDYCAR SERIES career. That ranks fifth all-time. Scott Dixon’s 53 career wins ranks second. Remarkably, neither has won not only this season, but at the Iowa Speedway too.

Power is 0-for-15. Dixon is 0-for-17.

Is this the weekend that changes? The main reason for both being shutout Power says is all due to his teammate and how well he gets around here.

“Heading back to Iowa. Yeah, yeah, yeah, one of my favorite tracks. Been trying to win there for years. There’s one guy that seems to prevent it. Yeah, it’s going to be fun,” said Power.

Newgarden has led 111 or more laps in 7 of his last 9 Iowa starts including four wins, a pair of runner-ups, a fourth, fifth and sixth place result in the last 10 tries. He’s won 3 of the last 5 here as well as having scored 5 wins in the last 7 short oval races in general.

Power’s last three Iowa finishes are second, third and second respectively. He also has 6 top sixes in his last 8 Iowa starts overall. On another short oval in Gateway, Power finished 3rd and 6th in his last 2 starts.

For Dixon, he’s been solid here as of last with five straight top five finishes. He has 3 top 8’s in his last four at Gateway too.

But, Iowa is one that’s eluded him. It’s one of six tracks he’s yet to win on.

He’s also never won at St. Pete (0-for-19), Barber (0-for-13), Portland (0-for-6) and Laguna Seca (0-for-5).

Dixon has the record of most consecutive seasons with at least one trip to victory lane at 18. He’s won every year since 2005.

Power is next best at 16 with a win every season since 2007. Through 10 races run, they’re both still winless. Over the next seven races, can both find victory lane and can that come this weekend?

“Yeah, very good tracks coming up for us,” Power told me. “Series is ultra-competitive, so I really don’t see — I don’t see many weak teams out of the big four teams: Penske, McLaren, Andretti, and Ganassi. That’s just not — you might start to add Rahal into that now. Lundgaard is starting to be more of a regular top five finisher.

“Yeah, pretty tough field, toughest in the world actually. That’s why, if you can win one, it’s such a big deal. It’s a big deal now to win in INDYCAR.”

Dixon has won a race in 20 of his 21 years in the sport. It took him until Race 10 to win in Toronto last year.

For Power, it took him 7 races to reach his lone win in 2022. His next win will be his 17th season with a win which would tie Helio Castroneves for third most ever trailing only Dixon’s 20 and AJ Foyt’s 18.

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Will Both Races Look The Same?

With this year moving to a pair of 250-lap races, I wonder if both look similar this weekend.

“It doesn’t truly change much,” Will Power told me. “It probably changes strategy a bit. To me, it comes down to traffic position, running through that traffic well. Yeah, it’s more of — yeah. Getting through traffic. The higher the grip, the higher level of grip, the cooler it is, the harder it is to pass.”

Last year, you had a doubleheader, but each were different distances. That very much played a role in strategy and differing the two shows, so it wasn’t the same thing on two separate days.

Saturday’s race last year was 250 laps compared to 300 on Sunday. Did the 44 extra miles of racing on Sunday make it a different race than Saturday?

“We looked at the last time it was a double-header, and the guys who pitted for new tires for the last stint like passed everyone insanely, and then you try the same thing the next day, which I did, and it didn’t work as well,” Conor Daly told me last year.

“Each day is going to be different, and each race has its own profile to it. Veterans for sure know, but the young guys and everyone in this series is extremely talented, so it’s hard to really say anyone is at a disadvantage.”

The problem now is, you have the same race, at the same time, on each day. Would it have been better for just one 500 lap race?

Granted I know you can’t do that because that would be way too physically demanding, and part of this atmosphere is a two-day carnival. I get that. However, what separates the two races from one another now? This essentially is the same race, twice in a 24-hour span. Doesn’t that get redundant? Why would drivers on Saturday be any worse on Sunday and vice versa?

If it was going to be the same distances, why not have one at night and the other during the day? Different track conditions that way. This way, I do question on if it’s a good idea.

Last year, the top three drivers were the top three drivers on both days. In fact, the top 5 on both days had 3 of the same drivers represented in each box score. Can anyone improve from Day 1 to Day 2 now with both races being the same distance and in the same part of the day?

Scott McLaughlin went from 22nd to 3rd last year. Felix Rosenqvist went from 26th to 7th. Colton Herta from 24th to 12th.

On the flipside, most of the others had similar results within a position or two each day. How much can anyone gain between races?

I mean if you’re good you’re good and it’s hard to find improvement areas. If you’re bad there are glaring weaknesses. However, can you do enough on the car and inside of it to gain that much in a 24 hour span?

The doubleheader format in general started in the series in 2013 and only two times has someone swept both races in the same weekend. Scott Dixon did it in Toronto in 2013 and Graham Rahal at Belle Isle in 2017.

Josef Newgarden had a great shot last year in leading 206 of 250 laps in his Saturday win and cruising to what was shaping up to being a easy win on Sunday. Until his suspension gave out on him while leading.

Newgarden had 1 more pit stop left and was dusting the field on Sunday. He led a race-high 148 laps. However, he failed to sweep the weekend.

2-for-17 now.

This format started with three races (Belle Isle, Toronto, Houston) in 2013, fell to Belle Isle and Houston in 2014 and just Belle Isle as the standalone from 2015 through 2019. During the 2020 season, due to COVID, we had it in Texas, Road America, Iowa, World Wide Technology Raceway, Mid-Ohio and on the IMS road course. Last year it was back to Belle Isle again before moving to here this weekend.

Oddly enough, 3 of O’Ward’s 4 career trips to victory lane came on the 2nd day of a doubleheader weekend which makes him a strong favorite for Sunday.

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Can Ganassi Minimize The Damage, Can McLaren/Penske Capitalize?

3 of the next 5 races are on short ovals including the pair of 250 lap races this weekend.

The thing is, Penske has been the top dog on short ovals in general since 2018 with 9 wins in 13 tries. Josef Newgarden is tops among drivers with winning 7 of those 9 races for Penske himself.

There’s no doubt that the Penske trio and Pato O’Ward should shine over the course of both days this weekend.

Newgarden and O’Ward have combined to have won 7 of the last 8 oval races in general with Newgarden winning 6 of the last 8 all by himself. He’s 2-for-2 this season.

On short ovals in general, Newgarden and O’Ward have won five in-a-row dating back to Race 2 at World Wide Technology Raceway in 2020. They’ve also gone 1-2 in 5 of the last 12 oval races too.

Newgarden has led 111 or more laps in 7 of his last 9 Iowa starts including four wins, a pair of runner-ups, a fourth, fifth and sixth place result in the last 10 tries. He’s won 3 of the last 5 here as well as having scored 5 wins in the last 7 short oval races in general.

O’Ward has been great in Gateway (3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th) and even better here: 4th, 12th, 2nd, 1st. In his last 14 oval starts in general, he’s finished 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd and 24th respectively.

McLaughlin has 10 top 5 finishes so far and among his 10 top 5 finishes in the sport, 5 of which came on ovals. He was second in Texas 1 in 2021 and fourth in Gateway that season. Last year, he was second at Texas, third in Iowa 2 and third again in Gateway.

Power 2nd, 3rd, 2nd last 3.

That’s 3-5-6-8 in points.

In saying that, can Penske and McLaren capitalize over this span and can Ganassi minimize the damage?

They did last year.

Ganassi won 2 of the 1st 3 years at Iowa but 0-for-14 since. However, they’ve been the next best behind the Chevy dominance too.

Scott Dixon is 0-for-17 at Iowa but has been solid here as of last with five straight top five finishes. He has 3 top 8’s in his last four at Gateway too. On the season, Dixon has had a top seven finish in all but one race. In fact, his last eight results are 7th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 2nd and 4th.

Alex Palou has finished 11th, 14th, 6th and 13th at Iowa and 15th, 12th, 20th and ninth in Gateway. He has a top 8 finish in each of the 10 races run and if you go back to last season, his last 11 finishes are 1st, 8th, 3rd, 5th, 5th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st and 2nd.

For Marcus Ericsson, he’s been solid, but not great. Ericsson was 9th, 9th, 8th and 6th in Iowa and 5th, 23rd, 9th and 7th in Gateway since 2020.

Can Penske and McLaren capitalize over this span and can Ganassi minimize the damage?

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Alexander Rossi

Normally when you have a rough weekend in a race, you want to get to the next track as quickly as possible. This weekend, well it gives Rossi an extra set of motivation behind it because not only does he enter after a rough go of it in Toronto, but he’s excited to see what it’s like to drive a good car with a chance of success in Iowa too.

See, he’s been waiting for a chance to have a good car at Iowa. Now, he has it. Rossi will try and snap a recent skid that’s seen him drop from sixth in points leaving Detroit to 10th in points entering Iowa.

In the past, he’s not always welcomed racing on the .894-mile bullring. That’s because his past team had struggled to bring good cars to these types of tracks.

“Honestly, I don’t know if I’m allowed to say this or not, but I was pretty happy that they were good in Iowa because we were really not,” Rossi said last year about McLaren at Iowa. “So it was like, well, we still have that potentially to look forward to.”

With Andretti, Rossi had been solid, but not great here. He had 5 top 10’s in 8 tries with a worst finish of 11th entering last season.

Now, he does have a potential of a great car and we’ve seen what Pato O’Ward has done here with the same team so I’m curious on what Rossi can do this weekend with the same equipment.

“As we gear up for the doubleheader at Iowa, I feel both excited and focused,” said Rossi. “It’s always great to get back to the track immediately after a rough weekend.

“Iowa is one of the most challenging tracks that we go to, but the team has some amazing pedigree there and I can’t wait to drive our short oval package for the first time. On top of that, the support of Hy-Vee is incredible and the energy of the fans fuels us. We’ll be pushing hard to put on a great show for them. I can’t wait to get there and get started and maybe see some cool concerts along the way.”

Rossi left Detroit on the cusp of a win. A breakout was already occurring with 5 top 8 finishes in the first seven races to the season. That included three straight top five finishes with a podium (3rd) in the GMR Grand Prix, 5th in the Indy 500 and 5th again in Detroit.

Then came 10th in Road America, 10th again in Mid-Ohio and 16th last week in Toronto for which his car quit on him in qualifying and as a result he had to start in the back. Then, with a first lap crash, he had no where to go.

Iowa is a place that a year ago wouldn’t be one to get his season back going again, but this year, lit now is.

“Iowa has been a successful stomping ground for our team in recent years, and our oval package has been strong all year,” said Arrow McLaren Racing Director, Gavi Ward. “So this weekend is about doing the basics right, not overthinking it, and enjoying being a part of the best short oval racing in the world.”

Rossi’s main gripe this season has been finding ways to qualify better than 10th-13th. He’s started there in 6 of the 10 races. He was 26th last week. In 2 of the 3 other times that he didn’t?

Ovals.

He started third in Texas and seventh in Indy. With a strong oval package, Rossi could truly be a contender this weekend. He’s just struggled to get higher up finishes on the podium because he was always coming from behind in doing so.

Maybe he doesn’t have to worry about this in a unique format this weekend for which Saturday morning’s qualifying session (9:30 a.m. ET, Peacock, INDYCAR Radio Network) will set the lineup for both races. A strong Saturday in the speed department could lead to a strong doubleheader weekend in the pair of 250-lap races.