Eric Smith

This weekend’s Iowa doubleheader favorites, sleepers, fades, track trends, etc

TRACK: Iowa Speedway (.894 Mile Oval), DISTANCE: 250 Laps (218.75 Miles) both days

TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

This is the 18th and 19th races on the Iowa Speedway bullring including the third straight time that we’ll run a doubleheader. Both are back in the heat of the day so that’s going to play a major factor. The other day races in Iowa were 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2018 and both a year ago.

The night races here were 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2019 and 2020.

Last year, Race 1 was 50 laps longer than Race 2. That played a role. This year, it’s back to the same distances for both.

  • Just 1 time in 15 races has the pole winner won.
  • 5 of the last 8 winners have started in the top 3.
  • The night races produced winners from further back. The starting spots of the winners during night races? 17th, 7th, 13th, 9th, 3rd, 23rd and 1st respectively.
  • The starting spots in the day races? 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 11th, 2nd and 7th respectively.
  • Ganassi won 2 of the 1st 3 years but 0-for-14 since.
  • Andretti won 7 of the 1st 9 races but 0-for-8 since.
  • Penske has won 5 of the last 7 with SPM/McLaren and ECR taking the other 3.
  • We’ve seen some dominating performances here. Josef Newgarden led 208 of 250 laps in Race 1 last year and 148 of 300 laps in Race 2. He then led 214 laps in his 2020 win. He also led 245 of 300 in his win in 2019 and 282 of 300 in his 2016 triumph. On top of that, he led 229 laps in a fourth-place finish in 2018 too. Furthermore, he led 111 laps in a 2015 runner-up as well.

TRACK COMPARISONS/WHO’S BEEN GOOD ON THEM

World Wide Technology Raceway is the only other comparison to Iowa since it too is a short oval but there’s not much from Gateway that translates to Iowa since they’re different configurations. Phoenix when it was on the schedule was the closest comparison but that race is no longer here and the cars have changed since the last time we went to the west valley Arizona oval.

The thing is, Penske has been the top dog on short ovals in general since 2018 with 9 wins in 13 tries. Josef Newgarden is tops among drivers with winning 7 of those 9 races for Penske himself.

On short ovals, this could be a Pato O’Ward vs. Josef Newgarden battle.

The duo has combined to have won 7 of the last 8 oval races in general with Newgarden winning 6 of the last 8 by himself. He’s 2-for-2 this season.

On short ovals, Newgarden and O’Ward have won five in-a-row dating back to Race 2 at World Wide Technology Raceway in 2020. They’ve also gone 1-2 in 5 of the last 12 oval races too.

Where Honda has the street course reign, Chevy has short ovals.

Chevy has swept the podium on both days at Iowa last year and took 4 of the 5 spots on the lead lap on Saturday and a 1-2-3 sweep on Sunday.

Newgarden and Will Power combined to lead 221 of the 250 laps (88%) on Saturday and Newgarden, Power and Pato O’Ward led 293 of 300 laps on Sunday giving the bowties their 7th win in the last 8 Iowa tries including 5 straight. At World Wide Technology Raceway, they’ve won 5 of the 7 races since the return including 3 straight.

“I think Chevy’s done a great job this year giving us drivability and horsepower,” said Power. “It definitely showed this weekend, all the Chevy cars were really strong.

“Yeah, just lucky to be involved with these guys. They’re very, very good at their job.”

O’Ward has made 17 oval starts and has two wins, five runner-up finishes and 13 top six finishes in those races.

“We’ve obviously dominated this weekend,” O’Ward said of Chevy’s power. “It’s been an all-Chevy podium both days. Qualifying was also all Chevy. The power was there. The drivability was there. The reliability was there. Just very crucial part of the season to have that. Yeah, great to have them power us.”

In the process, Ganassi has taken a step back on short ovals.

Alex Palou has finished 11th, 14th, 6th and 13th at Iowa and 15th, 12th, 20th and ninth in Gateway. Scott Dixon has finished 2nd, 5th, 5th, 5th and 4th at Iowa and 1st, 5th, 19th and 8th in Gateway. Marcus Ericsson was 9th, 9th, 8th and 6th in Iowa and 5th, 23rd, 9th and 7th in Gateway.

Pato O’Ward celebrates last year’s win at Iowa. Photo Credit: INDYCAR Media Site

Favorites

Pato O’Ward

He’s been great in Gateway (3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th) and even better here: 4th, 12th, 2nd, 1st. In his last 14 oval starts in general, he’s finished 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd and 24th respectively. He has three straight top eight finishes on the season now too and five in the last seven races in general.

Josef Newgarden

This is his best track. He’s led 111 or more laps in 7 of his last 9 Iowa starts including four wins, a pair of runner-ups, a fourth, fifth and sixth place result in the last 10 tries. He’s won 3 of the last 5 here as well as having scored 5 wins in the last 7 short oval races in general. Newgarden has a pair of top five finishes in the last three races.

Scott McLaughlin

McLaughlin has 12 top 5 finishes so far and among his 12 top 5 finishes in the sport, 5 of which came on ovals. He was second in Texas 1 in 2021 and fourth in Gateway that season. Last year, he was second at Texas, third in Iowa 2 and third again in Gateway. This year, he was sixth at Texas and comes to Iowa on the heels of finishes of 7th (Detroit), 8th (Road America), 5th (Mid-Ohio) and now 6th (Toronto) respectively.

Will Power

His last three Iowa finishes are second, third and second respectively. Power has 6 top sixes in his last 8 Iowa starts. Somehow though, he’s winless in 15 Iowa tries as well. He finished 3rd and 6th in his last 2 Gateway starts. Power ran out of fuel coming to the white flag while running in third at Toronto for which would have been his third podium in the last four races run too.

Scott Dixon

He’s 0-for-17 at Iowa but has been solid here as of last with five straight top five finishes. He has 3 top 8’s in his last four at Gateway too. Also, Dixon has finished 7th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 2nd and 4th respectively over his last seven starts on the season. In fact, his three finishes prior were 3rd, 5th and 27th.

Jack Harvey during the NTT INDYCAR Series race at the Iowa Speedway. Photo Credit: INDYCAR Media Site

Sleepers

Alexander Rossi

He’s been waiting for a chance to have a good car at Iowa. With Andretti, Rossi had been solid but not great here. He had 5 top 10’s in 8 tries with a worst finish of 11th entering last season.

Rahal/Letterman/Lanigan Racing

They were surprisingly strong last year. Christian Lundgaard was 10th and 27th but in Race 2, he was running well before the issue. Jack Harvey was 18th and 20th while Graham Rahal was 9th and 14th.

Harvey had a pair of 7th place finishes with MSR in 2020 while Rahal was 3rd in Race 2 of that year for his 4th top 8 in his last 5 Iowa starts then. Rahal, has 11 top 10’s in 16 Iowa starts.

Lundgaard enters on the heels of a win and a pole and has five top seven finishes over the last seven races. Rahal came from last to finish ninth in Toronto and has finishes of 11th, 7th and 9th now in the last three races.

Callum Ilott

12th and 11th last year as a rookie.

David Malukas

14th and 8th last year as a rookie.

Scott Dixon and Alex Palou do battle this weekend at the Iowa Speewday. Photo Credit: INDYCAR Media Site

Fades

Alex Palou

He has finished 11th, 14th, 6th and 13th at Iowa and 15th, 12th, 20th and ninth in Gateway. However, he also has finished 8th, 3rd, 5th, 5th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st and 2nd this year too.

Marcus Ericsson

He’s been solid, but not great. Ericsson was 9th, 9th, 8th and 6th in Iowa and 5th, 23rd, 9th and 7th in Gateway since 2020.

Felix Rosenqvist

This car was 3rd and 6th respectively in 2020 with Oliver Askew behind the wheel. Rosenqvist crashed and finished last in Race 1 last year and was seventh in Race 2. He himself was 15th and 14th in 2020’s doubleheader.

Andretti Autosport

They’re 0-for-8 since winning 7 of 9 to start Iowa off with. They’ve not been close here either. While Romain Grosjean was 7th and 9th as a rookie last year, I don’t know if it gets that much better. Devlin DeFrancesco was 17th and 15th while Colton Herta was 24th and 12th. Alexander Rossi was 13th and 18th.

Herta has 2 top 20 finishes in six tries and that was 7th in 2019 and 12th in Race 2 last year.

Meyer Shank Racing

Not a strong track for them last year. Simon Pagenaud finished 23rd in both races after qualifying 21st and 16th respectively. Helio Castroneves was 16th and 21st respectively after starting 25th and 24th himself.

What’s baffling is, both have had so much success with Penske here.

Castroneves won for Penske his last time out prior to last year’s race weekend in 2017 while Pagenaud won in the first race of the 2020 doubleheader weekend and was fourth in Race 2 that year. Pagenaud had six consecutive top eight finishes here coming into last July including four of which being in the top four at that. The car he’s driving was 7th in both races in 2020 too.

Ed Carpenter Racing

Ed Carpenter’s last eight Iowa finishes are – 18th, 12th, 10th, 19th, 15th, 23rd and 25th and 17th respectively. Rinus VeeKay was only 20th and 17th respectively in 2020 and fourth and 19th last year. Conor Daly has 1 top 10 in seven tries with a best result of eighth (Race 1, 2020).

Takuma Sato

He was third in 2018 but has been 16th or worse in 9 of his 14 Iowa starts including having scored just 3 top 10’s in that span.

Leave a comment