Alex Palou remarkably extended his NTT INDYCAR SERIES points lead last weekend in Toronto despite qualifying a disappointing 15th. At that time, he looked like he had opened the door for the Astor Cup championship trophy.

That piece of hardware had been behind a closed door that was almost deadbolted shut. Then came a cut tire in practice on Friday that relegated him to 12th on the speed charts. Struggling in qualifying left him 15th.

However, a fast car and superb pit call left him runner-up when it was all said and done. His lead extended from 110 over Scott Dixon and 116 over Josef Newgarden entering the weekend to 117 and 126 respectively leaving it. Marcus Ericsson goes from 122 down to 142. Pato O’Ward dropped from 127 back to 143.

“Yeah, it feels great,” Palou said of extending his points lead. “Honestly, we had a really fast car. We wouldn’t be here without a fast car.”

Now, if he’s ever going to be caught, it’s going to come in this next five race stretch.

He’s open that he’s not very good on short ovals. The 26-year-old Spaniard has finished 11th, 14th, 6th and 13th at Iowa and 15th, 12th, 20th and ninth in Gateway. 

However, he enters on such a strong stretch that it’s hard to just overlook him despite his past struggles.

Palou has had a top 8 finish in each of the 10 races run on the season and if you go back to last season, his last 11 finishes are 1st, 8th, 3rd, 5th, 5th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st and 2nd.

Mix that with coming here to test last month and you get a sense that Palou could quite possibly put the dagger in the hopes of Dixon, Newgarden and everyone else this weekend too.

“Honestly, the test was good,” Palou said. “You always want to be leading at tests, especially if big competitors are not there. They’re amazing. We know they’re going to be up there, Penskes and McLarens.”

Palou also admits that Iowa and tracks like it, well they’re not strong suits for him. However, having the points lead where it is and having a full days worth of work before showing up this weekend certainly helps his mindset and about how he can attack the .894-mile track this weekend.

“Yeah, I mean, last year was one of the worst weekends for me personally, but not for the team though. I remember it was quite exciting for the team,” he admits.

“We worked a lot on our tire deg, long runs. It’s always good if you can start P1. If you have tire deg like we had, like I had especially on my car last year, you go from third to ninth in one stint, which is what happened.

“I learned a lot on how to drive it better, how to get more confident. I think we made the right step. You always want more. It was good, it was positive. We learned some stuff. Hopefully that gives us some indications on how to make another step before the race.

“But yeah, I struggled quite a lot there. Even in 2020, my first year in INDYCAR, then last year quite a lot. Being a doubleheader it’s obviously worse because it’s double points, let’s say, on the same weekend.”

His points lead is that of two races right now. Iowa is two races so on one side, it could drop dramatically. On the other, if it remains near that two race mark, there’s only five races left leaving here.

One of which is at the World Wide Technology Raceway in late August. However, the other four are tracks that he’s recently done well at.

He was third last year in Nashville. On street courses this season, he’s finished 5th, 1st and 2nd in the last 3. At the Indy Road course, he won by nearly 20 seconds in May. In Portland, he won last year. In Laguna Seca, he won by a half minute last season too.

Palou’s last three races on natural road courses all resulted in wins.

Which is why this weekend is so important to the championship race. He’s going to be hard to catch.

Dixon has scored 9 top 10 finishes in 10 races run this season and should by most seasons, be much closer to the points lead. In fact, all have been 7th or better. However, he’s 117 points behind in second.

That just goes to show you how good of a season that Alex Palou is having. Dixon has finished 7th (Barber), 6th (GMR Grand Prix), 6th (Indy 500), 4th (Detroit), 4th (Road America), 2nd (Mid-Ohio) and now 4th again (Toronto) in the last seven races. Despite that run, Palou has finished 5th (Barber), 1st (GMR Grand Prix), 4th (Indy 500), 1st (Detroit), 1st (Road America), 1st (Mid-Ohio) and 2nd (Toronto) in that same span. He’s overshadowing a strong season out of Dixon.

Dixon is 0-for-17 at Iowa, but has been solid here as of last with five straight top five finishes too. He also has 3 top 8’s in his last four at Gateway as well.

He did win last year’s race in Nashville and second in the year prior. He was 8th and 6th in his last two Indy road course starts. He was third in his last two Portland tries and 13th and 12th in his last two tries in Monterey.

Which is why this weekend is so big for him too.

Similar for Newgarden and O’Ward.

The duo have combined to have won 7 of the last 8 oval races in general with Newgarden winning 6 of the last 8 all by himself. He’s 2-for-2 this season.

On short ovals in general, Newgarden and O’Ward have won five in-a-row dating back to Race 2 at World Wide Technology Raceway in 2020. They’ve also gone 1-2 in 5 of the last 12 oval races too.

Newgarden has led 111 or more laps in 7 of his last 9 Iowa starts including four wins, a pair of runner-ups, a fourth, fifth and sixth place result in the last 10 tries. He’s won 3 of the last 5 here as well as having scored 5 wins in the last 7 short oval races in general.

O’Ward has been great in Gateway (3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th) and even better here: 4th, 12th, 2nd, 1st. In his last 14 oval starts in general, he’s finished 6th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 2nd, 15th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 2nd and 24th respectively.