Eric Smith

After qualifying, 5 favorites, 5 sleepers, 5 fades and trends for Sunday’s Honda Indy Toronto

TRACK: Exhibition Place (1.786-mile, 11-turn street course), DISTANCE: 85 Laps (151.81 Miles)

TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

This is just the second time since 2019 that the series has visited our friends north of the border. Everything changed last year with the addition of the Aeroscreen.

INDYCAR started coming to Toronto in 1986. They came for 22 straight years before missing out in 2008 due to the merger of Champ Car and INDYCAR. But, they were back in 2009 for the next 11 years making this one of the longer tenured races on the schedule. Unfortunately, the pandemic stopped it in 2020 and with another year off in 2021, the history of this race was in jeopardy.

Now, it’s back.

  • Penske has won 3 of the last 5 here with Scott Dixon in a Ganassi car (2018, 2022) as the only outlier since 2017.
  • You can also get fluke winners here too. Sebastien Bourdais with KVSH Racing won in 2014. Mike Conway with ECR won the second doubleheader race that year with CFH Racing. Josef Newgarden won a year later with ECR too.
  • Still, mainly the best win here with Conway being the only non series champion to win at Toronto since 2007.
  • Toronto was a doubleheader in 2013 and 2014 before being moved back to a single race in 2015 on.
  • We’ve seen some dominating performances here with the last 4 winners leading at least 40 of the 85 laps. Simon Pagenaud led 80 of 85 in his win in 2019 and Dixon 40 of the 85 last year.
  • 18 of the last 20 including 29 of the last 32 races were won from the top seven. The only other starting spots since (13th in 2001, 11th in 2014 and 11th again in 2015).
  • However, on street courses in general in INDYCAR now, the winners lately have come from 2021: 15th (Belle Isle 1), 16th (Belle Isle 2), 18th (Nashville), 14th (Long Beach)
  • 2022: 1st (St. Pete 2022), 2nd (Long Beach 2022) and 16th (Belle Isle 2022), 2nd (Toronto), 14th (Nashville)
  • 2023: 4th (St. Pete), 1st (Long Beach), 1st (Detroit).
  • 4 of the last 5 years has seen a crash in the 1st two laps.

TRACK COMPARISONS/WHO’S BEEN GOOD ON THEM

If you go back to the start of the 2019 season, we’ve had 19 races on these tracks with 11 different winners. Josef Newgarden (4 wins), Scott Dixon (3 wins), Marcus Ericsson (3 wins) and Colton Herta (2 wins) are the only multi-time winners with 2 of Newgarden’s 4 wins coming in St. Pete.

The big teams are strong on them with Penske winning 7 of those last 19 races, Ganassi with 6 and Andretti with 4. Arrow McLaren SP is the only other team to have won.

Penske won 3 of the 5 last year with Ganassi and Scott Dixon taking the other two. Ganassi (Marcus Ericsson, Alex Palou) is 2-for-3 this year with being winners in 4 of the last 5 while Andretti won the other this season in Long Beach.

Honda is a perfect 3-for-3 on street courses this season with taking 6 of the 9 podiums too. It went Ganassi-McLaren-Ganassi in St. Pete, Andretti-Andretti-Ganassi in Long Beach and Ganassi-Penske-McLaren the last time out in Detroit.

This has become an Andretti vs. Ganassi battle on street courses.

In Long Beach, the two organizations swept the entire top five of the finishing order and had 6 of the top 8 finishers in general.

In Detroit, Penske and McLaren stormed back with Penske having all 3 cars in the top seven of the starting lineup and McLaren with all three in the top 12 while Andretti was 3-12-17-24 too. Ganassi had three of their cars start in the top six.

Marcus Ericsson this weekend at the Honda Indy Toronto. Photo Credit; INDYCAR Media Site

Favorites

Scott Dixon

Hard to bet against him here. He won in 2018, was runner-up in 2019 and won again in 2022 for three consecutive top two finishes on this track. Dixon also has 10 straight Toronto top 10’s including four wins and a runner-up in that span. He also qualifies well here too. He’s started in the top 10 in all 15 tries including 11 of which in the Fast 6. Since 2015, he’s qualified 4th, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 7th respectively. On street courses this season, Dixon has finished 3rd in St. Pete and while he was last in Long Beach, he had a top five car before that incident with O’Ward and fourth in Detroit. He’s coming off of a runner-up the last time out in Mid-Ohio. While he was just 11th and 8th in practice, I do think he’ll be a contender.

Was sixth as a rookie last year but on street courses this season, he’s finished eighth, fifth and first respectively. Palou has 4 wins in the last 5 races on the season including 3 straight. However, he was only 12th in Friday’s practice and qualified 15th.

Marcus Ericsson

Ericsson finished fifth last year and has 2 podiums (1st, 3rd) in 3 street course starts this season. He was sixth and third in practice and rolls off fourth in the race.

Scott McLaughlin

Ninth a year ago, but on street courses this season, he’s finished 13th, 10th and 7th respectively. However, Penske and Ganassi have won all but one race this season and if someone has to win from them, look no further than the second place starter. He was 5th in Friday’s practice and 14th Saturday morning.

Kyle Kirkwood

A street course ace. Kirkwood qualified 5th in St. Pete and did so crashing. In Long Beach he started on the pole and won. For Detroit, he crashed with pole potential (was 3rd in both practices) and despite being ran over at the start a dropping to 27th, he rebounded to finish sixth. He was in the top two in both practices this weekend and starts eighth.

Felix Rosenqvist

Third here last year, third on the last street race, third in practice on Friday and qualified fifth.

Pato O’Ward this weekend at the Honda Indy Toronto. Photo Credit; INDYCAR Media Site

Sleepers

Pato O’Ward

Pato O’Ward should have won St. Pete. He finished second. He had the wrong qualifying strategy in Long Beach but a quick car. He had the right race strategy in Detroit before a bad pit stop later compounded by a costly driver error. The speed is there. He was eighth and fifth in practice and starts third on Sunday.

Romain Grosjean

16th last year as a rookie but on street courses this season, he has qualified first, third, third and now ninth and if not for bad luck, would have had strong finishes in all. He crashed while going for the lead with 29 to go in St. Pete, he was runner-up in Long Beach and got into Turn 7 too hot in Detroit and slipped from third to seventh entering his first pit stop and crashed with 20 to go while riding in seventh. He was second and seventh in practice sessions this weekend.

Marcus Armstrong

In three street course tries this season, he’s finished 11th, 8th and 8th respectively. In a Ganassi car, he’s a strong sleeper choice. He starts 10th.

Helio Castroneves

He has seven top eight finishes in his last 8 Toronto starts including three runner-ups and a third place run in his last six tries. Castroneves has a season best 13th place starting spot too.

Callum Ilott

The young driver hasn’t exceled on these types of tracks. He’s finished 19th, 24th, 14th and 15th respectively on them a year ago and also missed Belle Isle due to an injury. While he was 5th in St. Pete, he was 19th in Long Beach and last in Detroit, I also like that he was 13th and 11th in practice this weekend. He starts 16th on Sunday.

Alex Palou this weekend at the Honda Indy Toronto. Photo Credit; INDYCAR Media Site

Fades

Alex Palou

Was sixth as a rookie last year but on street courses this season, he’s finished eighth, fifth and first respectively. Palou has 4 wins in the last 5 races on the season including 3 straight. However, 12th in practice on Friday and starting only 15th gives me pause on an actual race win from him.

Colton Herta

He won twice on street courses in 2021 and should have had a third in Nashville. Herta, was seventh here as a rookie in 2019 after qualifying 16th and second a year ago after a pole. He was also fourth and first in practice. However, finishes of 20th, 4th and 11th on street courses this season and starting 14th makes me wary.

Josef Newgarden

He has 2 wins in his last 6 Toronto starts and 5 top 10’s in that same span. Prior to that, his best finish was 11th in 5 tries. However, he’s been just a top 10 guy, not a top 5 one in street courses lately. Newgarden finished 17th (St. Pete), 9th (Long Beach) and 10th (Detroit) this year on them. He’s finished either 9th or 10th in 2 of the last 3 years here too. He was 9th in both practices and starts 11th.

Will Power

Be wary here. He’s a three time winner (2007, 2010, 2016) but his last four finishes are 21st, 18th, 18th and 15th respectively too. Power, has just two podiums in his last 12 Toronto starts with 8 of those 12 seeing him finish 15th or worse at that. That’s why despite a runner-up in Detroit, seventh in St. Pete and sixth in Long Beach, I’m fading him.

Graham Rahal

Not one of his better tracks. Rahal, has 2 top 5’s, including last year’s fourth place run, in 14 tries. The other was a 5th place run in his second Toronto start. His last 12 finishes have seen him 13th or worse in 7 of them.

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