Palou and Herta’s March Through The Field
It’s not been a great weekend so far for points leader Alex Palou. A cut tire on his laps on the Firestone alternate tires on Friday left him down in 12th on the speed charts. While he rebounded to fourth on Saturday morning, he just didn’t have the pace in qualifying later on in the day.
Palou was in the drop zone when rain began to fall on the 1.786-mile street course and when needing a big lap to get himself into the next round, mother nature didn’t allow. He will start 15th.
Even with the excuse of rain, Palou didn’t take the bait saying that they just didn’t have enough speed in general to do so.
Now, how far can he come through the field. He started 22nd last year but finished sixth. In last year’s season finale, he started 11th but won the race by half of a minute.
I’m also watching Colton Herta’s march through the field too. He was quickest on Saturday morning and fourth on Friday. However, the wrong group choice and a struggle in the wets cost him a spot into the second round in qualifying as he’ll start 14th.
Points
This wasn’t a thing I was watching entering this weekend, but with Palou being 12th in practice on Friday and qualifying 15th, this could in theory open the door up for his gap to close some. No matter what, he’ll leave Toronto with the points lead.
But, how much will it drop…or will it at all?
Scott Dixon (-110) is second but was only 11th and 8th in practice and starts seventh.
Josef Newgarden (-116) is third in points but starts 11th after being only ninth in both practices.
Palou could actually get by both in the race.
The thing is, if Dixon and/or Newgarden is going to catch Palou, it has to start with one of them winning on Sunday. Think of the ground that they could make up.
In 2020, Dixon won each of the first three races run and had a top two result in four of the first five overall. In fact, once Dixon won the Aug. 29 race at the World Wide Technology Raceway that year, it was his sixth top two in the opening eight races of the season. With a race on that same track a day later and six overall races left, he appeared to be untouchable.
Newgarden, found himself over 117 points down, going into Race 2 of the St. Louis race weekend. He stormed all the way back and nearly won the title.
How? How does one make up 117 points in six races?
Speed and talent is how and it left Newgarden wondering if he had started better, what if?
In a six-race span to end that season, Newgarden had five top four finishes — four of those in the top two. Dixon, only had one podium and two top fives.
That’s why these two have lived it. They’ve also combined to have won 6 of the last 10 Honda Indy Toronto’s including 4 of the last 6 and 3 of the last 4 at that.
Dixon is coming off of a runner-up finish in Mid-Ohio and has three straight top two finishes here including a win just last season. Newgarden is a two-time winner.
Then it’s a doubleheader at Iowa.
Newgarden has won 6 of the last 8 oval races including being 2-for-2 this season. He’s absolutely a threat at both Iowa and Gateway which make up 3 races in a 5 race stretch.
Dixon may be 0-for-17 at Iowa, but he’s also had five straight top five finishes there too including a pair of runner-ups at that.
Then it’s to Nashville. Dixon won last year and was runner-up in 2022. After is to the Indy road course to where both Dixon and Newgarden have won at. So has Palou, most recently. Then it’s to Gateway.
Palou has finished 11th, 14th, 6th and 13th at Iowa and 15th, 12th, 20th and ninth in Gateway.
The potential is still there.
Honda is 3-for-3 on street courses this season and won the final two of them a year ago. Do they shine at Toronto (Sunday) and Nashville (Aug. 6)? Ganassi is 2-for-2 at Nashville and has won 2 of the last 3 in Toronto. They’ve won 4 of the last 5 street course events overall too.
Where Honda has the street course reign, Chevy has the same on short ovals.
The thing is, the points gap to watch may actually be the one from 4th-7th instead. Marcus Ericsson (-122) is fourth in points and has 2 podiums in 3 street races run this season including a St. Pete win. He was 6th and 3rd in practice and rolls off fourth.
Pato O’Ward (-127) is fifth in points and was 8th and 5th in practice and qualified 3rd.
Scott McLaughlin (-148) starts second after being 5th and 14th in practice. His teammate, Will Power (-151) rolls off sixth.
Ericsson vs. O’Ward
To further the point above, I wonder how nicely O’Ward will play with Ericsson at the start on Sunday. They share Row 2 and both know that in order to win these street course events, you have to be aggressive.
With them starting alongside one another and Ericsson being aggressive and crashing on the opening lap in the last race at Mid-Ohio, what happens between this pair at the start?
O’Ward was pissed at Ericsson leaving Indy and made his intentions clear on where things stand.
“I just think I was a little too nice there,” O’Ward said after a late race crash in a battle with Ericsson. “There were seven laps to go and I was going for it. I was way too nice.
“I’ll make sure that he comes with me next time. I got on to the apron to give him room and I got squeezed, and yeah, I won’t forget that one.”
O’Ward was aggressive in Long Beach and got into Scott Dixon. He was aggressive in Detroit and crashed. At the end of the season opener in St. Pete, he was leading when his engine backfired. It allowed Ericsson by for the win. O’Ward finished second.
Penske/Ganassi vs. the Field
Penske and Ganassi have combined to have won 7 of the last 8 street course races and 13 of the last 19 of them in general. Only Andretti Autosport (4 wins) and Arrow McLaren Racing (1 win) have won in this span.
With Penske and Ganassi having won five straight Honda Indy Toronto’s and combining for 5 of the 9 podiums this season on street courses and have won 8 of 9 races this season, it may be a race between these two on Sunday.
They have 4 of the top 7 starters including 2 of the top 4.
Ganassi is 2-for-3 on street courses this season and also won the final two races of them last year to give them 4 wins in the last 5 tries.
While Team Penske won the 1st three street races last year, Ganassi was next best in class on these circuits with finishes of 2-8-9-23 at St. Pete, 3-6-20-22 in Long Beach and 3-6-7-22 in Detroit.
Penske started off 3-for-3 with 3 different drivers on street courses in 2022, but have since gone 0-for-5. In just 2 of the last five, they had the second-place finisher.
They went 9-10-15 in Toronto and 2-6-11 in Nashville a year ago.
This year, they went 7-13-17 in St. Pete, 6-9-10 in Long Beach and 2-7-10 in Detroit.
That’s just two podiums in the last five tries after having three straight wins. Can they make up for it in Toronto, a place where they’ve won 3 of the last 5 races here or do they slip further back?
The only other teams up front are RLL (Lundgard, 1st), Arrow McLaren Racing (O’Ward 3rd, Rosenqvist 5th) and Andretti Autosport (Kirkwood 8th, Grosjean 9th). Even if you go back to 11th, you have another Ganassi driver (Marcus Armstrong) in 10th and the final Penske driver (Josef Newgarden) in 11th.
But, with factoring in Andretti and McLaren, that’s 10 of the top 11 starters. They also went 1-12 on Friday.
Since 2022, these four have won all 27 races and if you go back to 2021, they’ve won 37 straight. Furthermore, in this Aeroscreen era (57 races), they’ve won 94.7% (54-for-57) of them.
The last non “Big 4” team to win was Meyer Shank Racing in 2021. In fact, these teams didn’t win the Month of May at all with Ed Carpenter Racing’s Rinus VeeKay winning the GMR Grand Prix and Helio Castroneves the Indy 500.
The only other time they didn’t win was the 2020 Indy 500 with RLL and Takuma Sato.
That’s it.
The separation is real. You have the top 2, the next two, then the rest.
Penske has won 22 times. Ganassi has won 21. Andretti has won 7 and McLaren 4. The other teams are RLL, ECR and MSR each with 1.
Which is why this question is a relevant one because while Penske and Ganassi have 2 of the top 4 starters, McLaren and Andretti have 4 of the top 9 between them and arguably faster cars.
Weather
There’s a threat of rain on Sunday which could make matters interesting. RLL didn’t use to have the wet weather pace but got a pole on Saturday. Andretti Autosport has been the top team in the dry going 1-2 on Saturday morning and 1-2-4 on Friday but in the wet only qualified 8-9-14-22. They don’t want rain.
Wet weather could change things up that’s for sure.
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