Is This Toyota’s Race to Lose?
This could be their week again. They’ve finished runner-up in 4 of the last 5 Loudon tries and 6 times in the last 9 New Hampshire races. The 3 they didn’t finish 2nd in? They won, including last year.
Denny Hamlin has 11 straight top 15 finishes on this track including a runner-up in 2 of the last 4 years. He won in 2017. He was fourth (Martinsville) and second (Gateway).
Martin Truex Jr. had five top 10 finishes in his first seven New Hampshire starts. Then, he had two in his next 13 tries there. But, over the last 10, he’s had eight results in the top 10 again including six of the last seven in the top seven at that. He started on the pole, swept both stages and led a race-high 172 laps last year. He was third in Martinsville and fifth at Gateway.
Christopher Bell was runner-up in 2021 and won last year. This year, he was sixth (Phoenix), fourth (Richmond), 16th (Martinsville) and 11th (Gateway).
For 23XI Racing, watch out for Bubba Wallace. He was third a year ago and in the preferred power (Toyota) this weekend again. He had a car capable of a top five finish in Gateway too.
The thing is, they’re reeling entering.
Truex, after scoring four straight Top-5 finishes, has came home 32nd and 29th the last two weeks.
Hamlin has finished 11th or worse in 5 of his last 7 starts on the season including being 11th and 14th the last two races.
Bell was 18th and 23rd entering and hasn’t had a top five finish since Bristol Dirt (12 races ago).
Gibbs has finished 13th or worse in 10 of the last 11 races.
Reddick’s last five finishes have been 35th, 33rd, 30th, 28th and 27th.
Wallace’s last five finishes are 30th, 17th, 15th, 31st and 25th.
Can they just turn it around all at once?
Can Loudon Kickstart SHR Once Again?
In 2 of the past 4 years, Stewart-Haas Racing had entered Loudon winless on the season. In each of those tries, they left with a trophy. While they’re winless so far this season, is Loudon the place to get the ship steered in the right direction again?
Last weekend they had 3 of the top 6 starters but finished 18-22-24-30.
For whatever reason, this though is usually their get right race. Kevin Harvick got right in this race in 2019 after entering it winless on the year. Aric Almirola did the same in 2021 for his 6th top 11 on this track since 2013. He was 3rd in 2018, 11th in 2019, 7th in 2020 and that win two year ago. He may have been 31st last year, but he did qualify seventh.
For Harvick, he won 3 of the last 8 Loudon races including 2 of the last 5 at that. The two he didn’t win, he was fifth, sixth and fifth respectively with leading the most laps in his 6th place effort in 2021.
Chase Briscoe was 15th last year while Ryan Preece is always a threat at his home track.
Which HMS Shows Up?
Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t won at race at Loudon in over a decade. It was 2012 to be exact. In fact, their overall performance has been lacking in New Hampshire lately.
In 2021, they finished 7-9-18-21. Last year was 2-11-14-35. However, they’ve been so good on like tracks this year.
In Phoenix, they went 1-4-9-10. In Richmond it was 1-2-8-24. At Martinsville, 1-10-11-23. Gateway they struggled at 4-8-21-26.
So which wins out?
Kyle Larson does have 4 top 10’s in his last seven tries including two runner-up’s but on like tracks in 2023 he was fourth, first, first and fourth respectively. He also has four Top-8 finishes in the last five weeks too.
Chase Elliott has just two top fives in nine starts there, but one was a runner-up last season. He has three top five finishes in the last four weeks.
William Byron has no top 10’s in five tries but won Phoenix, had a car to win Richmond, was 23rd in Martinsville and eighth in Gateway. He was eight top eight finishes in the last 10 races including a win last Sunday.
Alex Bowman has just one top 10 (9th in 2021) in the same five starts as Byron. On like tracks this season, he was ninth, eighth, 11th and 26th respectively.
Is This A Championship 4 Preview?
Since New Hampshire went down from two races each year to one annually, this race has ended up being a Championship 4 preview, especially since Loudon can translate over to Phoenix. That’s why this race is arguably so important.
But, in general though, all four drivers to make the Championship 4 in 2018, 2019 and 2020 had all finished in the top 10 at New Hampshire. Furthermore, they also went 1-2 in each of those three years at the checkered flag in this race including taking three of the top four spots in two of the three years overall too.
In 2018, Harvick, Busch, Truex Jr. and Logano went 1-2-4-9 and led 131 of 301 laps.
In 2019, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch finished 1-2-6-8 and led 272 of the 301 laps.
In 2020, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and Chase Elliott combined to lead 285 of the 301 laps in New Hampshire. They finished 1-2-4-9.
In 2021, it was 2 of 4. That’s partially because Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. were collected in that opening lap crash in the rain.
Last year, it was 3 of the 4 all in the top 8 (1st – Bell, 2nd – Elliott, 6th – Chastain, 24th – Logano).
Also, 12 of the last 15 New Hampshire winners are Cup champions.
Late Race Battle?
We saw Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch’s late race battle in 2018 for the win. It happened again a year later in a thrilling shootout between Harvick and Denny Hamlin. 2020 wasn’t a thrilling as the two preceding it, but Brad Keselowski and Hamlin had themselves a duel still.
For 2021, it was down to Aric Almirola vs. Christopher Bell. Last year, Bell vs. Chase Elliott.
Will we see another battle on Sunday to the finish?
New Hampshire is known as a track position track where it’s hard to pass. That’s why the ending of these races has been kind of shocking in the sense that you do get an intense battle for the win. With lapped traffic almost always playing a role, it bunched the top few up and allows for some end of the race chaos. Will it happen again on Sunday?
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