Sunday’s Crayon 301 (2:30 p.m. ET, USA, PRN) is going to be the ultimate test between two varying contrasts of philosophies. Most say that racing is a momentum based sport. Once you have it, you must capitalize because you can truly stack together some good results. If you don’t have it, you can remain stuck in a rut for a while in your fight to climb out.

However, this Next Gen car has proven that sometimes that doesn’t matter. Which is why this weekend in New Hampshire is going to bring this to a head.

Joe Gibbs Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing should be the favorites based off past stats on the Magic Mile. However, Hendrick Motorsports should be the favorites based off of recent stats and success on like tracks for the 2023 season.

Trends say one thing, recent results say another. For which do you trust?

The track didn’t change between last year and this and while the package did slightly, why wouldn’t Sunday’s race be a Joe Gibbs Racing race to lose.

Chevrolet has just one win in the last 16 New Hampshire tries with the last victory coming back in 2016. So, while Hendrick Motorsports may have fared well on like tracks this season, the safer play may be riding the Toyota’s because they’ve been right there with HMS on those same track and have been so dominant here.

Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t won here since 2012. JGR just won here last year.

JGR also has finished runner-up in four of the last five Loudon tries and six times in the last nine New Hampshire races overall. The only three that they didn’t finish second in? They won, including just last July.

Christopher Bell (+550) was runner-up in 2021 and won last year.

Denny Hamlin (+700) has 11 straight Top-15 finishes on this track including a runner-up in two of the last four years at that. He won in 2017. He was fourth (Martinsville) and second (Gateway) in comparable tracks as well as being fifth in Dover this May.

Martin Truex Jr. (+650) had five Top-10 finishes in his first seven New Hampshire starts. Then, he had two over his next 13 tries there. But, over the last 10, he’s had eight results in the Top-10 again including six of the last seven in the top seven at that. He started on the pole, swept both stages and led a race-high 172 laps last year. He was third in Martinsville and fifth at Gateway to go along with a win at Dover this year too.

The thing is, they’re both also reeling entering.

Truex, after scoring four straight Top-5 finishes, has come home 32nd and 29th the last two weeks.

Hamlin has finished 11th or worse in 5 of his last 7 starts on the season including being 11th and 14th the last two races.

Bell was sixth (Phoenix), fourth (Richmond), 16th (Martinsville) and 11th (Gateway). He’s not had a Top-5 finish since Easter in Bristol (12 races) and is 18th and 23rd in the last two weeks entering.

Ty Gibbs (+5000) has finished 13th or worse in 10 of the last 11 races on the season.

Can they just turn it around all at once?

What about Stewart-Haas Racing?

This is usually their get right race. Kevin Harvick (+900) got right in this race in 2019 after entering it winless on the year. He was fifth at both Phoenix and Richmond this year. Harvick has also won three of the last eight Loudon races including two of the last five at that. The three that he didn’t win, he was fifth, sixth and fifth respectively with leading the most laps in his sixth place effort in 2021.

Aric Almirola (+2200) did the same in 2021 for his 6th top 11 on this track since 2013. He was third in 2018, 11th in 2019, seventh in 2020 and that win two years ago. He may have been only 31st last year, but he did qualify seventh and finished sixth this spring in Martinsville.

Chase Briscoe (+7000) was 15th last year, but seventh this year at Phoenix and fifth in Martinsville while Ryan Preece (+5500) is always a threat at his home track and has had his best races on short tracks this season.

Here’s their problem.

Harvick has one finish better than fifth all season 10 of his last 11 races seeing him finish 10th or worse.

Almirola has 1 top 10 finish all season.

Briscoe has finished 17th or worse in each of the last nine races.

Preece’s best 2023 result is 12th.

Can they just magically turn it around too?

Which leads me to wonder if maybe we need to look in Hendrick’s direction.

Yes, it’s been 11 years since their last trip to victory lane here. In 2021, they finished 7-9-18-21. Last year was 2-11-14-35. However, they’ve been so good on like tracks this year.

In Phoenix, they went 1-4-9-10. In Richmond it was 1-2-8-24. At Martinsville, 1-10-11-23. Gateway they struggled at 4-8-21-26.

So which wins out?

Kyle Larson (+1000) does have four Top-10s in his last seven tries including two runner-up’s but also on like tracks in 2023 he was fourth, first, first and fourth respectively. He also has four Top-8 finishes in the last five weeks too.

Chase Elliott (+1100) has just two top fives in nine starts there, but one was a runner-up last season. He has three top five finishes in the last four weeks. However, he missed Phoenix, Richmond and Gateway this year and in those races, the 9 car struggled. It took some strategy to get them towards the front.

William Byron (+1200) has no top 10’s in five tries but won Phoenix, had a car to win Richmond, was 23rd in Martinsville and eighth in Gateway. He was eight top eight finishes in the last 10 races including a win last Sunday. However, does he win two straight though?

Alex Bowman (+4500) has just one top 10 (9th in 2021) in the same five starts as Byron. On like tracks this season, he was ninth, eighth, 11th and 26th respectively. He had six Top-10 finishes in the first seven races of the season. In the last nine? None.

Which makes this race entirely difficult to predict. There’s so many scenarios here and philosophies at stake.