Colton Herta and Pato O’Ward will always have their stats compared against one another. That’s because they’re both as equal as they come in a race car and also have similar paths behind them and similar potential futures ahead.

Each were teammates in 2018 at Andretti Autosport in Indy Lights. O’Ward won 9 times that season. Herta won 4. Herta also had 7 runner-up finishes in that year, 5 of which he had a front row seat to O’Ward’s wins. O’Ward had three runner-up’s himself, two of which were in races that Herta won.

Combined, they had won 13 of the 17 races. They finished 1-2 in 7 of the 17. That allowed them to both graduate to the NTT INDYCAR Series for the 2019 season. Before that, they both made their INDYCAR debuts in the same race in the season finale of the 2018 season in Sonoma. They’d do so as teammates.

However, plans changed in the offseason. Harding didn’t have the funding anymore to run two full-time cars. Even though O’Ward had the scholarship money from his Indy Lights championship, Harding went forward with Herta. O’Ward went overseas but made it back in 2020 to drive for Arrow McLaren.

Now, four years later, Herta is in the midst of his fifth full-time season and O’Ward his fourth. Herta has 7 wins, O’Ward with four. Herta leads in the poles category too (11-5). O’Ward leads in podiums (17-11) and Top-5 finishes (28-24) but Herta has him back in Top-10’s (40-38).

Their stats are eerily similar with Herta eclipsing O’Ward in career starts by 10, 74-64.

As they each entered the 2023 season, both have had talks and discussions of a Formula One future. O’Ward drives for a team that has an F1 operation and has gotten some tests in the process. Herta, also has tested for O’Ward’s team, but his current team also has an aspiration to be their own standalone F1 organization too.

The thing is, as things sit at the moment, each needed to have a breakout season in 2023 in order for those F1 dreams to remain alive. Herta lacked the Superlicense points to make a jump in 2023. Andretti lacked the success. For each to be more attractive, they need to be more successful on a consistent basis.

Similar for O’Ward. If he wants to become a future F1 driver, he needs to show Zak Brown that he can win more often here.

Herta had 10 Top-5 finishes in his first 32 starts to his career. The problem was, he only had four podiums among those 10 Top-5 finishes.

2021 was supposed to be that breakout though with 7 Top-5 finishes and 5 of which being on the podium. That gave him more podiums in 16 races that season than in the 32 starts prior. Last year he took a step back in scoring just 4 Top-5 finishes, all podiums. However, he failed to score a single one though in the final seven events.

“Yeah, it’s no secret that last year was not a good one for us,” said Herta during this preseason. “We need to do better on all fronts. That’s what the main part of the off-season has been. It’s been looking at everything and just trying to improve everything.

“We just need mistake-free weekends, and that’s the goal, one by one.”

He has just five Top-10 finishes, but only two top fives among them with no podiums. He’s had two straight poles now, but hasn’t really been a factor outside of those races. He also had seven Top-4 finishes including three wins in a 14-race span between 2021 and early 2022. In the last 21 races, he’s had just one top four and no wins. He’s finished outside the top 10 in 11 of those starts.

I’m waiting for him to become Colton Herta again.

Similar for O’Ward. He’s had two wins in each of the last two seasons but winless in 2023. The Mexican star also has had 9 podiums in that same two-year span (5 in 2021, 4 in 2022). Out of his 8 Top-5 finishes a year ago, only four of them landed on the podium.

This year, he has just six top 10 finishes, all but one in the top five and four of which on the podium. He’s turning top 10’s into podiums, but he’s not only not winning, but he’s not finishing well overall either. He has 3 finishes of 17th or worse.

See a theme among these two?

They’re emerging stars, but we need them to be just that, stars. They come and go far too often. If O’Ward’s engine doesn’t malfunction at the end of St. Pete, or the caution comes out a bit earlier in Texas, or he doesn’t push too hard on a late race restart in Indy, he could have three wins already.

For Herta, if the final pit call is a better one in Road America, then he wins.

That’s the minor differential keeping them from winning 4 of the first 9 races. Instead, they’re 0-for-9.

Which is why I’m also curious that over the course of the final eight races, if they can become themselves again.

O’Ward will be an instant contender at both Iowa and Gateway. He was second and first respectively at Iowa a year ago and 3rd, 2nd, 2nd and 4th in four career Gateway starts.

At Toronto, Herta was runner-up last year. He was quickest in the Iowa test. On the IMS road course, Herta won in May 2022 while O’Ward was runner-up this past May. In Nashville, Herta had a car capable of winning the last two years. For Laguna Seca, Herta has won 2 of the 3 trips back there.

If race day goes their ways, then there’s no reason for Herta and/or O’Ward to end 2023 on a surge.