Toyota and SHR Each Have Chance To Surge Over Next 3 Races

Both the Toyota camp and Stewart-Haas Racing comes to Loudon this weekend reeling. For Toyota in particular, they have just one trip to victory lane in the last eight races. That comes after a span of four wins in seven weeks by four different drivers. However, I get the feeling that they’re about to ramp up things again.

In Atlanta, they never were expected to contend. They’ve won just twice in the Peachtree state and have failed to reach victory lane there since 2014. They’re 2-for-the-last-18 in Talladega and 1 for the last 8 at Daytona.

So they can’t hang their heads too far down after Atlanta.

However, they come to Loudon to where they should be contenders in Sunday’s Crayon 301 (2:30 p.m. ET, USA, PRN).

They’ve finished runner-up in 4 of the last 5 Loudon tries and 6 times in the last 9 New Hampshire races. The 3 they didn’t finish 2nd in? They won, including last year.

For SHR, in 2 of the past 4 years, they had entered Loudon winless on the season. In each of those tries, they left with a trophy. While they’re winless so far this season, is Loudon the place to get the ship steered in the right direction again?

For whatever reason, this though is usually their get right race. Kevin Harvick got right in this race in 2019 after entering it winless on the year. Aric Almirola did the same in 2021 for his 6th top 11 on this track since 2013. He was 3rd in 2018, 11th in 2019, 7th in 2020 and that win two year ago. He may have been 31st last year, but he did qualify seventh.

For Harvick, he won 3 of the last 8 Loudon races including 2 of the last 5 at that. The two he didn’t win, he was fifth, sixth and fifth respectively with leading the most laps in his 6th place effort in 2021.

Chase Briscoe was 15th last year while Ryan Preece is always a threat at his home track.

Christopher Bell was runner-up in 2021 and won last year. This year, he was sixth (Phoenix), fourth (Richmond), 16th (Martinsville) and 11th (Gateway).

Denny Hamlin for JGR has 11 straight top 15 finishes in New Hampshire including a runner-up in 2 of the last 4 years. He won in 2017. He was fourth (Martinsville) and second (Gateway).

Martin Truex Jr. had five top 10 finishes in his first seven New Hampshire starts. Then, he had two in his next 13 tries there. But, over the last 10, he’s had eight results in the top 10 again including six of the last seven in the top seven at that. He started on the pole, swept both stages and led a race-high 172 laps last year. He was third in Martinsville and fifth at Gateway.

For 23XI Racing, watch out for Bubba Wallace. He was third a year ago and in the preferred power (Toyota) this weekend again. He had a car capable of a top five finish in Gateway too.

The thing is, they’re all reeling entering.

Truex, after scoring four straight Top-5 finishes, has came home 32nd and 29th the last two weeks.

Hamlin has finished 11th or worse in 5 of his last 7 starts on the season including being 11th and 14th the last two races.

Bell was 18th and 23rd entering and hasn’t had a top five finish since Bristol Dirt (12 races ago).

Gibbs has finished 13th or worse in 10 of the last 11 races.

Reddick’s last five finishes have been 35th, 33rd, 30th, 28th and 27th.

Wallace’s last five finishes are 30th, 17th, 15th, 31st and 25th.

Can they just turn it around all at once? We’ll see.

Similar for SHR. They’ve had a tough start to the season. They’re winless still. However, they had higher hopes entering the night in Atlanta. With all four cars rolling off 13th or better, including 3 of the top 6 starters, they’d nab just two total stage points with race finishes of 18th-22nd-24th-30th.

Pole sitter Aric Almirola led two times for 46 laps including the first 39. But, he was shuffled out towards the end of the opening stage to only finish 10th. With being 14th in Stage 2 and 18th in the end, he made up no ground in points.

Similar for Chase Briscoe. He started third but dropped 20 spots in the first 60 laps to finish 23rd at the end of Stage 1. He was 24th in Stage 2 and 22nd at race completion.

Ryan Preece started 13th but was 25th and 10th in the two stages and collected in the final crash to finish 24th.

Kevin Harvick in his final Atlanta start struggled with handling and went from 6th to 29th at the end of Stage 1. He was collected in two incidents in Stage 2 and would finish 30th in the end.

Loudon could be a spot for both teams to get rolling.

A week later, it’s to Pocono to where JGR has won 70% (7-for-10) of the races since the 2017 summer race and could have been 8-for-10 if not for getting DQ’d following last year’s 1-2 finish.

For Pocono, Hamlin has six wins there including two in the last six at that. It would be seven wins and three in the last six if not for last year’s DQ. He was also runner-up in another race for six top sixes in his last eight Pocono tries.

Bell was fourth in his first Pocono start, 39th, 17th and 32nd respectively after, then fourth again last year.

Truex won that Pocono race in 2015 and again in 2018. Furthermore, he has five top six finishes in his last 11 tries on the Tricky Triangle and was seventh a year ago.

Harvick has nine Top-6 finishes, eight of which being in the Top-4, in his last 12 Pocono starts. Almirola has four top 10’s in his last nine starts there including a pair of top fives in 2020. He finished 13th last season. Preece was eighth his last time out in 2021 and now he has a better car….

Then it’s back to Richmond to where both JGR and SHR swept last year’s race. JGR has won 6 of the last 10 at too.

Harvick won this race a year ago and this past spring, SHR went 5-12-13-18.

After that is a trip to Michigan to where Harvick is also the defending race winner as well.

This next stretch is going to say a lot about both JGR and SHR as a whole.

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Trackhouse Lands Busch Beer, Why This Makes Sense For Them and Hurts SHR Even Further

Busch Light announced today that the brand has signed a multi-year agreement as primary sponsor with Trackhouse Racing and NASCAR Cup Series driver, Ross Chastain.

Beginning in 2024, the beer brand will partner with Chastain to bring his 21+ fans along for the ride of their lives with epic, one-of-a-kind opportunities, irreplaceable memories and access to the sport like never before.

Chastain is growing force in the sport, from his first Cup Series victory at Circuit of the Americas and making history at Martinsville Speedway with his “Hail Melon” move in 2022 to earning his first Busch Light Pole Award then winning the race the next night at Nashville Superspeedway in June, fans can’t get enough of him!

Chastain’s popularity with fans, his rise to the top of the NASCAR Cup Series, his unique driving style and roots as an eighth-generation watermelon farmer, made him the ideal partner for Busch Light.

“With our longstanding commitment to NASCAR, we’ve activated many different types of programs with our sponsorship throughout the years, and we’re thrilled to team up with Trackhouse Racing and Ross Chastain to continue finding compelling, creative ways to bring 21+ fans, NASCAR enthusiasts and Busch Light consumers closer to the sport they love,” said Krystyn Stowe, Head of Marketing Busch Family & Natural Family at Anheuser-Busch. “Our goal is to showcase the things 21+ fans love while enjoying their favorite sport and favorite beer, and we can’t wait to do this along with Trackhouse Racing and Ross as they join the Busch Light family!”

This move can further bring Chastain into the limelight. Nothing against his current sponsors, but driving beer brand race cars can help to further grow his popularity.

Busch Beer is a grassroots type of beverage and Chastain if your grassroots type of racer. Merging is a perfect marriage that can bring Chastian further into the national limelight.

“On the farm in Alva, Florida, Busch Light has always been the beer of choice for all of our celebrations, and now that they are right by my side as my sponsor – it’s a dream come true!” said Chastain. “This sponsorship means so much to me as the brand not only supports NASCAR, but also places value and extends their support to communities that are close to my heart — the humble, hard-working people across the U.S. who enjoy cracking a cold one after an honest day’s work.”

This sponsor is also massive for this young organization. For Trackhouse to attract a sponsor like Busch Beer, it’s a huge win.

“Ross has already accomplished so much in his career and we’re so proud that an iconic brand like Busch Light sees his commitment not only to the sport, but to his fans. Being sponsored by the official beer of NASCAR is such an honor and we can’t wait to see what Ross and Busch Light accomplish together in 2024 and beyond,” said Trackhouse Founder and Owner, Justin Marks. “It has been Trackhouse’s goal from day one to build something special and different. Something that resonates with the fans and partners in NASCAR. For Busch Light to recognize this and commit to the vision is both humbling and inspiring as we continue to write a special chapter in the history of this sport.”

For over 44 years, Busch Light has invested in some of NASCAR’s most successful programs and events from the Busch Pole Award to the Busch Light Clash, as well as alongside sponsored driver and NASCAR icon, Kevin Harvick. As the brand takes its final lap with Harvick this year, Busch Light will continue its tradition in the sport by sponsoring Ross Chastain and working with Trackhouse Racing to cross the finish line with the No. 1 Chevrolet NASCAR Cup Series driver.

Anheuser Busch first joined Harvick with RCR in 2011. They followed him to SHR in 2014 and remained there through this season. Now, it’s a new shift with the company putting stock in Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2000-2007), Harvick (2011-2023) and now Chastain.

That’s a great group to be in company of.

On the flipside, it’s a massive loss for SHR. They’ve lost Monster Energy when Kurt Busch departed in 2018. They’re set to lose Busch Light at season’s end and could soon lose Smithfield if they choose to follow Aric Almirola out too.

That’s a lot of big sponsorship dollars leaving the team.

Also, it makes you truly wonder if Almirola is coming back next season anyhow. If he does, SHR would boast a lineup with 4 career wins (that’s if they don’t win at all in 2023). If Almirola walks too, out goes his 3 career wins leaving them with one and another major sponsor out the door too.

SHR has to reverse this downward spiral and needs to do so quickly.

Harvick has been the face of SHR since he came onboard in 2024. He’s amassed 37 wins in nine full-time seasons with this being his 10th. He also has 149 top five finishes and 228 top 10’s.

61.6% of his career wins have come with SHR. 59.8% of his top fives and 52.1% of his top 10’s did too.

Harvick was winless in 2021 and is again in 2023. He had more top fives in 2020 than he had in 2021 and 2022 combined. The other three drivers sit 25-27-31 in points right now.

That’s why losing Harvick and Busch is a huge loss just as Smithfield and Almirola would be too.

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Atlanta TV Ratings Could Spark A Future For More Sunday Night Races

NASCAR’s two race experiment paid off. This year, they moved both the Nashville as well as the Atlanta race weekend’s to not only under the lights, but on Sunday night instead of Saturday too. It paid off massively.

Nashville kicked off NBC Sports’ part of the schedule at the end of June and it delivered a sold out event with the TV number being 3.23-million. According to reports, the Ally 400 was the second-highest rated opener for NBC since the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona in 2017.

It was a 9% uptick from last year and 16% higher than the 2022 average race viewership.

Mission accomplished. But, what about Atlanta. This wasn’t on network TV but rather on USA.

The ratings are in for that race and once again, they’re very strong. Sunday’s Quaker State 400 was the largest viewed sporting event of the weekend with 2.56-million viewers.

They got 2.6 million last year with the race in the heat of the day on the same network. Which means that a later start time is better for those in the stands as well as those on TV. Which makes me think that NASCAR has found a new avenue with Sunday night racing.

I mean you can’t do it every week like Sunday Night Football on NBC, but you can do it more than twice.

It further helps NASCAR shift towards most races taking part on Sunday’s now and moving even further away from Saturday night shows.

Martinsville’s race last year was further proof on why NASCAR has went forward with more Sunday races than Saturday night. Nearly 4 million (3.958-million) people tuned into FOX a week prior to that one for the Richmond race. The Martinsville race was more than half of the amount of people tuning in.

From 3.958-million to 1.8-million. That’s a stark drop. Hell, the Truck race on dirt almost had as many people watching than the Cup race at Martinsville a week prior.

While some could say a race on FS1 will naturally drop off than one on FOX, you don’t lose 3-million people because of that and the Truck race was on FS1 too.

Sunday afternoon’s on network get you between 3.5-4-million. Sunday night’s get you at least 2.5-million. Saturday night’s usually range between 1.5-million to 2 million at the most.

That’s because weekend TV spots for primetime is declining in general. It’s a fundamental shift that NASCAR is working on again and they’re not hiding behind that fact either.

“I think from a fan perspective our fans, again, are accustomed to tuning in on Sunday afternoon and seeing NASCAR Cup Series racing,” Ben Kennedy said last year on this topic. “For a fan going out there to the track, to have the biggest event of the weekend on that Sunday afternoon I think gives them something to look forward to and builds anticipation around the weekend.

“I would say a lot of our fans, myself included, are accustomed to turning racing on, NASCAR racing in particular, on Sunday afternoon. I think we all have that habit. Certainly helped us kind of drive the decision to move that there.”

In both 2009 and again in 2010 we had 10 scheduled night races on the schedule. They were at Phoenix, Richmond (x2), Darlington, Charlotte (x2), Daytona, Chicago, Bristol and Atlanta. Last year, that number was down to six (Martinsville, Bristol (x2), Charlotte, Darlington and Daytona). Out of those 6, half would take place on a Sunday night at that. That’s down from 8 of 10 in 2010.

This year, it’s up to 9 races in primetime if you count the All-Star Race and Clash. Among the 9, just 2 of the races this season are even on Saturday night’s with both being in the final 11 races (Daytona, Bristol) with the remaining 7 on a Sunday night (Clash, All-Star Race, Bristol Dirt, Coke 600, Nashville, Atlanta, Southern 500).

This year, you added Atlanta and Nashville to the mix, took Martinsville and Richmond away and opened up a new avenue for future scheduling.

Plus, among the past tracks with lights, Phoenix, Richmond, Kansas, Vegas and Martinsville doesn’t need use theirs anymore for Cup with both visits now being day races. This avenue could allow them to add a Sunday night race and be creative in doing so.

The shift used to be clear. Lights were basically a backup plan now for tracks for the event rain pushes them to night to complete. However, they used to prefer not to have to use them and get them all done in a Sunday afternoon window.

Now, they have an option to move to a night race again, albeit on a Sunday instead of a Saturday.

This also further helps NASCAR in the next TV contract. Sunday night’s are a possibility now. So is racing in football stadiums and on city streets. There’s no where off limits anymore and that has to be attractive to major networks.

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Points

Daniel Suarez (-6), Michael McDowell (-10) and AJ Allmendinger (-24) each entered the Atlanta race weekend below the playoff cutline. 2 of the 3 left above it.

With Bubba Wallace being collected in a crash late and Ty Gibbs being collected in the Lap 122 caution, it helped both Suarez (2nd place) Allmendinger (3rd place) and McDowell (4th place) to make up a ton of ground.

Both Suarez and McDowell are each tied now for 15th in points with 307 points accumulated Wallace falls from 15 points up to 3 points down. Allmendinger is next up in 18th (-13). Gibbs falls to 19th (-26).

For Suarez, he qualified only 26th and didn’t score a single stage point (19th, 17th). That pit call on Lap 124 helped him. While now having track position for the first time all night, his No. 99 Chevy was flying. Suarez rode in Byron’s shadow hoping to find a path by. Then the rain hit.

“I wish I had one more shot at it,” he said. “With that being said, I had two cars in third and fourth, they also needed to win. If they could pick somebody to help, it wasn’t going to be me.”

McDowell started 20th and scored six total stage points, three in each stage, with 8th place finishes in both. He went even longer than the rest with rolling the dice to not only stay out on Lap 124, but he didn’t pit on Lap 160 either. He was hopeful for the rain to come before his engine sputtered.

He got lucky and it did. McDowell went from Lap 98 until the early finish on Lap 185 without pitting. That gamble has him into the playoffs at the moment.

“Obviously, that pit road incident with Martin took us out of the track position we needed, so we had to get a little bit creative there. I’m thankful to be able to recover, but really wish I’d have held those guys off at the end. We had a shot on that restart, obviously, starting on the front row. I thought I executed the start pretty well, but just couldn’t quite get clear of AJ (Allmendinger) like I needed to, but it didn’t work out. We were close, though.”

Allmendinger was 12th and 5th respectively in the two stages netting him six stage points too. He noted that his car struggled to lead due to the setup.

“We had a race car that handled really well. Probably didn’t lead very well. We probably had a little bit too much drag in it. But we kind of had that idea that we came with handling, so once I got to the lead I couldn’t really defend because they would get such big runs, but we could stay up front.”

Wallace went from 37th to 17th in Stage 1 and up to sixth (5 stage points) in Stage 2. That crash in the end while running well inside of the top 10 cost him dearly.

Gibbs qualified 7th but didn’t have a single stage point in being 11th and 34th in them.

Alex Bowman also fell further back and is in serious trouble now. He was -26 entering and -44 leaving. For the second straight week, he and Denny Hamlin were involved in an incident when Bowman lost control of his No. 48 Chevrolet in Turn 4 on Lap 154. He’d finish 26th as a result. It was his ninth straight finish outside the top 10. That’s why he’s spiraled from the points lead early down to 22nd now.

Yes, missing three races to injury didn’t help. Neither did that big penalty from Richmond. Still, being 29th, 11th and 13th before his injury and 12th, 26th, 15th, 17th, 37th and now 26th after is why despite six top eight finishes in the first seven races has him in the position that he’s in.

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Short Track Test

You have to applaud NASCAR for their dedication to ensuring the racing package for this new Next Gen model delivers. They’re leaving no stone unturned.

We’re 55 races into this car and a glaring deficiency for it right now is the short track package. NASCAR isn’t about to sit back and let the teams figure it out, so after another season of ho-hum racing with this package, they’ll go back to the drawing board next week in conducting a two-day test in Loudon.

This weekend is about the now for the Crayon 301 (2:30 p.m. ET, USA, PRN). The two days after are for the future as Christopher Bell, Harrison Burton, William Byron, Justin Haley, Ryan Preece and Erik Jones will stay behind and test at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

NASCAR has some items they want to test including a new splitter.

See, last year the racing was pretty poor on these tracks. So, NASCAR adjusted rightfully reacted and adjusted.

They adopted a new Road Course and Selected Short Track Package for 2023 which consisted of the following:

1. 2” Spoiler
2. Remove Engine Panel Strakes
3. Remove Center and Inner Diffuser Strakes. Only the Outer Diffuser Strakes will remain installed. Spacers will be installed between the diffuser flap and diffuser due to removing the inner diffuser strakes. 
4. Remove Diffuser Fences and Replace with Baseline Fences.
5. Splitter stuffers will remain unchanged from the current components.

The package features slight modifications to the Next Gen car that significantly decrease the downforce created by the vehicles. This configuration will be utilized at all tracks where “wet weather equipment” will be required: Charlotte Roval, Chicago Street Course, Circuit of The Americas, Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course, Martinsville, New Hampshire, North Wilkesboro, Phoenix, Richmond, Sonoma and Watkins Glen.

Chief among the changes are a two-inch rear spoiler (a reduction from the current four-inch blade on the rear deck lid) in addition to several tweaks underneath the car. Those include the removal of three diffuser strakes, engine panel strakes and trimming the diffuser’s outer fencing. All changes were run together during the second day of a January test at Phoenix.

“That basically adds up to about a 30% downforce reduction,” Dr. Eric Jacuzzi told NASCAR.com this past winter. “We’re now in a downforce level we haven’t been at since pre-2000s for sure — like mid ’90s.”

Unfortunately, while the stats say one thing, the eye test says the other.

So far, the results in the first three short tracks that ran the new package (Phoenix, Richmond and Martinsville) saw significant increases year-over-year in green flag passes for the lead and total green flag passes throughout the field at both Phoenix and Richmond.

Richmond Raceway’s 2023 Cup race (35 GFPL) set a new track record and saw an increase of +288.9% in green flag passes for the lead compared to the 2022 Richmond-1 event with nine green flag passes for the lead. 

Richmond (3,816 GFP) also set a new track record and saw an increase of +24.2% in total green flag passes compared to the 2022 Richond-1 event with 3,072 total green flag passes. 

Phoenix Raceway also saw increases of +7.7% year-over-year in green flag passes for the lead and +25.6% year-over-year in total green flag passes.

NASCAR could be banging the drum on those stats. Luckily, they’re not.

“Our short-track package, we’ve had some good races, but it’s probably not to the level that we as a sanctioning body and our fans have expected over time,” Elton Sawyer, NASCAR’s senior vice president of competition, said Tuesday in an interview on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.

“So, our aero guys over here at the R&D Center, Dr. Eric Jacuzzi and his team, they’ve done some great work in the wind tunnel and they were in the wind tunnel again (Monday) just to make sure what they believe is going to be a really good package that we’re going to test at New Hampshire will lead us in a direction that will give us some really great short track racing.”

Phoenix saw 10 lead changes among 6 drivers with only 5 cautions for 35 laps. The cars were slipping and sliding a lot more around the Arizona oval. The only thing is, the only lead changes were really on pit sequences. Prior to Kevin Harvick passing Kyle Larson for the lead with 43 laps remaining that day, both Larson and William Byron had combined to lead 244 of the first 246 laps. The only time they didn’t lead was on the Stage 2 pit sequence when Larson pit on Lap 118. Ross Chastain stayed out and led Lap 119 before pitting. Keselowski did the same one lap later (Lap 120). Larson reinherited the lead on Lap 121 and would lead until his next pit stop on Lap 246.

At that point, Erik Jones stayed out to lead 14 laps before pitting. Larson took over the lead again on Lap 261 and was passed by Harvick on Lap 269. Only reason the lead changed hands two more times was for that caution with 11 to go for which Harvick took four tires and Larson won the race off pit road while taking two then Byron passing Larson for the win in the end. 

That’s it.

There were 14 lead changes in the spring race at Phoenix a year ago and just 11 in the championship race. There were 22 and 18 respectively the year prior. The 14 lead changes in the spring were the least amount since….2019. The 11 was even lower.

This time, we only got 10 lead changes.

Also last year, Bristol’s Fall race had the least amount of lead changes in well over a decade. Richmond had largely been a bust last year. They had 13 and 16 lead changes. That the worst since the 2019 package which was dubbed a mistake and changes were made.

Martinsville was also a dud this spring. 5 lead changes and the winner crossing the finish line 4.142-seconds ahead.

It was also terrible back in the spring of a year ago too. The 5 lead changes among 4 drivers that night were the same as we saw for 2019 too. The pair of 2019 races (3 lead changes each) and last spring (5) were the worst there since 1997. There were 18 and 15 respectively just one year prior. Last Fall we saw just 6 cautions and 8 lead changes.

There were only 4 cautions for 36 laps in April last year. That was at night and 100 laps shorter than the return trip last October. While the Fall race was a day race, it was still a cloudy day with temperatures in the upper 50’s. That’s not going to make the track slippery.

13 combined lead changes occurred a year ago. Last spring’s dud was for a number of factors including tires, the conditions of being a night race and the package.

Under the lights, it was far too cold for the tires to wear. As a result, the lack of rubber in the track made this one that you couldn’t pass. Then, factor in the shifting due to this racing package and the cars that would even start to get wide, could downshift to straighten in out and power up off the corners.

It was impossible to pass. Does this new package help? It didn’t. There were just 5 cautions for 50 laps this stime around.

However, I often wonder how much it truly will anyways. I mean Martinsville is Martinsville. It’s not like you can make a second lane for passing. The low lane is the low lane and anything above it just won’t work. The track was designed this way and you can’t magically change it no matter what package you run.

Even if the tires fall off more, you can always downshift in the corners in this Next Gen and upshift to get power off. While stats show an improved show in Phoenix, the eye test doesn’t really say it was vastly better. Richmond was better for sure, but that’s a place where tire wear is already a key factor and you can pass with multiple lanes there. Martinsville is well, Martinsville.

That’s why I’m curious on how much NASCAR can learn in Loudon to apply to other places. Martinsville is a tough one to get right whereas Phoenix is one you have to get back in the window.

When these are the final two races of the season, you can’t have them remain snooze fests. NASCAR is trying to do the right thing and constantly tweaking to make it right. You can’t ignore that fact and have to give credit where credit is due to the brass for making a solid effort.