Race HISTORY/TRENDS

Sunday will mark the 119th race at the Atlanta Motor Speedway for the NASCAR Cup Series there. This is one of the most historic tracks on the schedule with a lot of rich history. Atlanta though, was also a popular track on the schedule due to the aged surface. See, when the track was reconfigured for 1997 and beyond, they also repaved it then. That was also the last time that the asphalt has been replaced. That stat made it the third oldest surface in NASCAR trailing only Dover (1995) and Fontana (1996). Now though, a repave and partial reconfiguration will once again make this race a brand new ball game. In fact, the spring race and summer race looked more like Daytona and Talladega than Atlanta of old.

Some key trends are as follows.

• Don’t look for much out of the Toyota camp. They’ve won just twice in the Peachtree state and have failed to reach victory lane there since 2014. They’re 2-for-the-last-18 in Talladega and 1 for the last 8 at Daytona.
• Hendrick Motorsports swept both races last year while Team Penske won in the spring.
• Chevrolet won both Atlanta races last year, both Talladega races in 2022 as well the spring race this year, the summer Daytona race a year ago and the Daytona 500 this year too.

Live Betting

• Since stages began, the race winner scored stage points in every stage minus 1 race (2019). In 2021, the eventual race winner finished in the top three in each stage. In fact, since 2017, the winner finished in the top 5 in 7 of the 8 Stage 1’s including 6 in the top 3 to go along with the top 8 in 7 of the 8 Stage 2’s.
• Joey Logano was first and second respectively this spring.
• Chase Elliott swept both stages in his July race win last season. William Byron won the first stage of the spring race and was ninth in Stage 2.

Favorites

Joey Logano (+1200)

Prior to his spring race win, Logano’s last six Atlanta starts prior saw him finish 23rd, 10th, 15th, 19th, 9th and 26th respectively. He then dominated in March. Logano has also finished second, first and 30th on drafting tracks this season.

Ryan Blaney (+1200)

Blaney was fourth in 2020, won this race in 2021 and fifth in the July race of 2021. He was also 17th and 5th respectively in the pair of Atlanta races last year and seventh this spring. Also, Blaney is as good as anyone now on superspeedway’s, so if this race runs like Daytona/Talladega again, you’ll be happy to snatch him up. He has three Top-8 finishes in as many tries on drafting tracks this season.

Ross Chastain (+1600)

Kurt Busch won here in this car in 2021 while Chastain was runner-up in both Atlanta races in 2022. Chastain also won on a drafting track at Talladega last spring as well. Now that he’s halted his winless skid, watch out on Sunday.

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Sleepers

Brad Keselowski (+1400)

12th and 18th a year ago but a vastly improved car this time around (runner-up this spring) and on a drafting style track that Keselowski has seven career wins on these types of races. He was leading the Daytona 500 with five laps-to-go. He was runner-up here and fifth at Talladega this season.

Christopher Bell (+1600)

The only Toyota play I’d be interested in. Bell, was third and first respectively on this very race track in his two Xfinity Series starts on it. He won the Truck Series race in 2017 too to go along with being eighth here last July. He was third this past spring to go along with being third in the Daytona 500 and eighth at Talladega too.

Chris Buescher (+2000)

Had a Top-10 last spring (7th) and driving a car capable of pulling an upset. He was in the Top-10 this past February for the Daytona 500 (4th). That’s why I’m choosing to ignore his last two Atlanta finishes of 33rd and 35th respectively.

Austin Cindric (+2000)

While he was 32nd and 11th the last two spring races here, he backed that up with a third place result last summer too. Cindric was also first and third respectively in a pair of Daytona starts in 2022 and ninth in the Fall Talladega race as well.

Erik Jones (+3000)

14th, fourth and eighth respectively are his last three Atlanta finishes. On drafting tracks this season, he’s finished 37th (Daytona), eighth (Atlanta) and sixth (Talladega) respectively.

Daniel Suarez (+3500)

A steal at this number. He was fourth and sixth respectively a year ago in Atlanta while also finishing in the top 10 this past February at Daytona and this past spring in Talladega.

Kevin Harvick (+3500)

Was only 21st and 12th here a year ago and 33rd this past spring. He was 12th and 21st in Daytona and Talladega respectively this year too. However, he’s in a Ford and crashed out this past spring while leading. Harvick has made a name for himself in Atlanta so in his final start and a good number, why not?

Corey LaJoie (+3500)

Was in the top five for much of the final stage in this race last year, was fifth in this very race last spring and fourth this spring.

Justin Haley (+5000)

11th and 7th were his pair of finishes last year. Five of Haley’s eight career NASCAR wins have come on superspeedway’s. So watch out here. He enters on the heels of a runner-up result which is why I’m skeptical after finishes of 32nd, 22nd and 19th on drafting tracks this season, but for this number, not going to lay it either.

Fades

Kyle Busch (+1000)

33rd, 20th and 10th are his last three Atlanta finishes. While he did win Talladega, this car he’s running was only 28th and 29th respectively here in this very car in 2022. To be the favorite with these results? I’ll pass.

Chase Elliott (+1100)

38th in Daytona and 12th in Talladega. That’s why despite two superspeedway wins last year, including here a year ago, he’s not had the success on these types of tracks this season. He’s cutting a lot off his points deficit and I don’t know if you can take the risks necessary to win here this weekend when a Top-5 would be a better play.

Denny Hamlin (+1400)

Toyota has struggled in Atlanta and Hamlin was only 29th and 25th respectively in his pair of Atlanta starts a year ago and sixth this past spring. He was 17th at both Daytona and Talladega this year.

William Byron (+1400)

Byron won last year’s spring race here after leading 111 laps in the process. The thing is, he was 30th and 32nd since and 34th at Daytona and seventh at Talladega this year too.

Kyle Larson (+1800)

Now that this race shifted to a speedway type of racing package, that negates Kyle Larson’s advantage. Larson has never won a superspeedway race and has just one Top-5 in 37 starts on them at that. He was 30th and 13th here last year, 31st this year and 18th and 33rd respectively in Daytona and Talladega in 2023 as well.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2500)

While the Daytona win is nice, being 31st in both races last year and 17th this spring isn’t.

Martin Truex Jr. (+2500)

He’s 0-for-27 in Atlanta and while he does have 11 top 10’s since 2012 (14 starts) to go along with four Top-5’s in his last eight, this race will run like a superspeedway and those are arguably Truex’s worst tracks. He was 15th, 19th and 27th respectively on them this season.

Tyler Reddick (+2800)

He was fifth this spring for his only Top-25 finish on this track… He was 39th in Daytona and 16th at Talladega.

Bubba Wallace (+2800)

Was in the top two across the white flag last spring and 14th in the summer race. Wallace is at his best on these drafting tracks but has Toyota power. On drafting tracks this season, he’s finished 20th, 27th and 28th respectively.

Alex Bowman (+3000)

While he was only 10th and 32nd respectively here last year and 14th this past spring. He was fifth (Daytona) and 13th (Talladega) this year as well.

Aric Almirola (+3000)

Only 3 Top-10s in 15 tries including 10 of which being 15th or worse. His three drafting track finishes this season are 21st, 30th and 22nd respectively.

Austin Dillon (+4000)

Finished 35th in both races a season ago and 20th this spring… Dillon as 33rd in Daytona and 38th in Talladega too.

Chase Briscoe (+4500)

Only 15th and 16th here last year and 24th this spring. He was 35th in Daytona.