Trackhouse Hat Trick?
Trackhouse won three races a year ago. They went winless in the first 16 races this season. However, they’ve since won two straight with Ross Chastain at Nashville and Shane van Gisbergen in Chicago. Can they pull the hat trick in Sunday’s Quaker State 400 (7 p.m. ET, USA, PRN).
That would equal as many wins in as many weeks as they had in the previous 52 races run. However, they most certainly can do it too.
Chastain was runner-up in both races here last year to go along with a Talladega win in 2022 as well. Daniel Suarez was fourth and sixth respectively a year ago in Atlanta while also finishing in the top 10 this past February at Daytona and this past spring in Talladega.
Chevy vs. Ford
Ford had the top 8 starting spots this past spring. They have the top 6 this time around. However, starting position typically doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot on drafting tracks. Plus, Chevrolet had won 5 of the 6 races on drafting tracks in his Next Gen era including sweeping both here a year ago.
Which gave in March?
It was Ford dominating to where Chevrolet struggled.
Ford’s led 221 of the 260 laps and took home the top two spots and 3 of the top 7. That equaled the amount of laps led the first four weeks of the season too (221).
In fact, Ford has led the most laps in all three drafting tracks this season. They led 122 of 212 laps in Daytona, 221 of 260 laps here and 88 of 196 in Talladega.
That’s 431 of 668 (64.5%) of all laps led on these tracks by the blue ovals. When equating that to the rest of the season, Ford’s have led 1,144 laps all year. That’s 37.6% of their laps led all year coming on these three tracks.
They led nine or fewer laps in a race in five of the last eight including one at Sonoma, two in Nashville and ?? in Chicago the last three races.
Chevy is 2-for-3 this year on superspeedway’s and went 5-for-6 last year. However, even being 2-for-3 this year, they led the least amount of laps among the manufacturers in two of them.
They led a combined 106 laps on these tracks this season but won two races. By comparison, Toyota has led 131.
Chevy led 44 laps in Daytona, trailing Toyota’s 46 too. For here, they led 19 laps, Toyota led 20. In ‘Dega, they led 43 laps compared to Toyota’s 65.
Ford’s are leading, Chevy’s are winning and Toyota’s are just there.
Back in March however, Toyota’s actually had 3 of the top 6 finishers which was a far better finish than we’d have expected out of them. We all figured they’d struggle that weekend, especially after qualifying on Saturday. Just one Toyota even made the final round of qualifying with them starting 10-14-16-19-29-35.
Plus, they’ve won just twice in the Peachtree state and have failed to reach victory lane there since 2014. They’re 2-for-the-last-18 in Talladega and 1 for the last 8 at Daytona.
Chevrolet only had 3 cars in the top 11.
Which happens this time around?
Pit Entry
I’m watching the pit entry point again. NASCAR has moved the pit road commitment line to Turn 3 this week. That came at the recommendation of the drivers who were concerned about diving to pit road at Turn 4 exit could potentially be dangerous.
At least at the other two drafting tracks in Talladega and Daytona, you have plenty of room between Turn 4 and the tri-oval to get slowed down and to pit road. You don’t have that luxury in Atlanta.
However, it was a moot point last season with no green flag pit stops occurring in either Atlanta race. Does it become a focal point this year? It wasn’t really this spring.
There’s also no practice again this weekend to try it out, so they’re going to be learning this on the fly. How many drivers will forget to hit the commitment line in Turn 3 and miss pit road all together?
This is something to watch as well.
Points
With 12 different winners already, 11 of which playoff eligible, that leaves just five wildcard spots left for the final eight weeks to the regular season. With two drafting tracks (Atlanta, Daytona) to go along with two road courses (Indianapolis, Watkins Glen) a lot can happen.
Right now, Kevin Harvick (+151), Chris Buescher (+104), Brad Keselowski (+91), Bubba Wallace (+15) and Ty Gibbs (+6) are on the good side of the cutline. However, Daniel Suarez (-6), Michael McDowell (-10), AJ Allmendinger (-24), Alex Bowman (-26), Justin Haley (-45), Austin Cindric (-45), Corey LaJoie (-47), Chase Elliott (-55), Ryan Preece (-66), Todd Gilliland (-79), Aric Almirola (-81), Austin Dillon (-130), Harrison Burton (-136), Erik Jones (-137), Chase Briscoe (-171), Noah Gragson (-212) and Ty Dillon (-225) are trying to get their ways in.
Out of the six drafting races last year, three of the races were won by drivers below the cutline.
Harvick won his first career race at Atlanta and is eyeing a win in his last. Elliott won this race last year. Keselowski was runner-up here this past spring. Cindric won last year’s Daytona 500. Dillon won last year’s Coke Zero Sugar 400.
Then you have Corey LaJoie who’s been strong here. Michael McDowell who’s arguably at his best on these types of tracks. Erik Jones who was 14th, fourth and eighth respectively are his last three Atlanta finishes. On drafting tracks this season, he’s also finished 37th (Daytona), eighth (Atlanta) and sixth (Talladega) respectively.
What does the playoff standings look like when we leave here on Sunday night?
Elliott is coming hard (4 top 5’s last 5 races) and won two drafting track races last season.
5 of the top 7 starters for Sunday nights race are winless this season. So are 8 of the top 11.
Ratings
It’s been a great start to the 2023 season for NBC Sports’ NASCAR slate. Big ratings in Nashville and Chicago lead into the first race on USA. It’s also on Sunday night in primetime. How much of a role does this play into the number?
If it’s big too, then we know that a Sunday night race is absolutely in play over Saturday night events in the future.
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