Palou’s Dominance

Alex Palou made mention early last week that he honestly doesn’t feel like he’s doing anything differently now than he was at the beginning of the season. It’s just as of late that he’s having better fortunes compared to everyone else’s mistakes.

The 26-year-old further proved that true five days later. Palou comes to the midway point of the season on a string of races to where he’s started 3rd, 1st, 1st, 3rd and 4th and finished 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st and 1st. He’s led 220 of the 520 laps (42.3%) in the process. Mid-Ohio was his 8th straight top five finish on the season and 9th top 10 in as many races run this year.

He’s also scored 24 top five finishes in the last 42 races.

With knowing that and know their own capabilities, it’s forcing others to step over the line of aggression in trying to catch him.

Pato O’Ward knew that Palou was fast in practice at Mid-Ohio. The points leader was second in both practice sessions leading into qualifying. As a result, O’Ward was trying to extract everything out of his car on Saturday afternoon. He stepped over the line and made a rare mistake. He’d spin. As a result, O’Ward qualified 25th in the 27 car field.

Josef Newgarden pushed the limits but only got to 15th place in qualifying.

O’Ward and his team went off strategy in the race on a three stopper. It didn’t work. Newgarden didn’t have the pace on his end either.

Marcus Ericsson started ninth and knew he had to go for it on the opening lap. He too made a rare mistake when he ran over Felix Rosenqvist and got airborne. It was Ericsson’s first DNF all season.

That’s 2-3-4 in points entering the day.

Kyle Kirkwood spun in Turn 4 while battling Palou for third.

Colton Herta sped on pit road. Graham Rahal had two slow pit stops. A day, scratch that, a weekend full of mistakes, allowed the one who doesn’t make them to shine.

“Yeah, obviously everyone needs to beat Palou, but I don’t think — that’s going to be a very tough challenge to beat him in a championship this year. He is so on point in every respect, in every respect,” said third place finisher on Sunday, Will Power.

“He is not missing a thing, which is very difficult in this series to be extremely fast, which there are a lot of guys that are, but then being able to do all the disciplines as well plus the intricacies of fuel save, tire conservation, in-and-out laps, the qualifying.

“Just from a strategy standpoint as well, which I know it’s the first time he won a championship. That group on that car is very smart. Like, they’re putting it all together. Yeah, it’s an absolute team effort, but he is also nailing it.

“It’s bloody hard to have that all nailed, and he is doing it.”

Dixon agreed.

“Yeah, it does make it tough,” he said. “As Will commented, and it’s not just Alex, but Julian, the whole 10 car group are just doing a phenomenal job. Even with Barry as well.

“It’s never a single person. The effort is big I think on all the cars in Chip Ganassi right now, but they’re firing on all cylinders.

“The qualifying is solid, the race pace is solid, strategy is solid. It’s just a really good all-around package right now.

“It’s never always one thing, but having quick paces is something that is huge obviously with how tight the competition is now, but even today we didn’t qualify on the front. We were fourth and sixth, but he was still able to overcome the three possibly quicker cars in qualifying.

“Some others may have had some problems on pit road or just whatever it was. He has done a hell of a job to cover all bases.”

“Yeah, it’s going to be tough to beat.”

Palou opened up an even larger lead now in entering 74 points up to leaving 110 ahead. For a driver that said that it’s far too early to points race and that he feels the target on his back is no different now than it was if he had a 10 point advantage, has a two-race gap with eight races remaining.

“It’s kind of out of our control,” said Newgarden. “They’ve had a good run up to this point, right? They’ve not had a bad race. I think that’s to be expected.”

O’Ward was more blunt about it.

“I think we all need to be better if we want to catch the 10 car,” O’Ward lambasted.

Next up is Toronto to where he was sixth as a rookie there a year ago but has finished fifth and first respectively in his last two street races run on the season.

While Iowa and Gateway could pose problems, you still have the Indy Road course (he won the last time out), Portland (he won in 2021) and Laguna Seca (he won last year) left too.

This has become his championship to lose.

In saying that, Palou knows that this championship is still far from over too. He feels like his results are more of a byproduct of maximizing their races to where others aren’t.

“At the same time I just think that everything is working really good for us now,” he continued. “I feel like we were as strong as we are now at the beginning of the season, but we had some ups and downs during the races. Long Beach was a clear example where we were running in the top four, got caught up on an accident, dropped back to 15th and still finished P5.

“Our performance is there. It’s just we’re able to get the results and get clean weekends, which is not real easy to do very often in INDYCAR.

“I feel like we have momentum. Momentum in motorsports matters a lot for driver confidence, team confidence, mechanic confidence. Everybody want to get the win, just like you are asking for more and more. It just gets better and better.

“Hopefully we can, as I said, keep the wave big or even bigger. Hopefully we can continue having some success.”

Palou, even with such a large lead, well he’s not points racing yet. Newgarden nearly overcame a 125 point deficit just three years ago to take the title away from Scott Dixon. Palou knows in this series, anyone can get just as hot as he has.

“If it was another series, maybe yeah, you could try and just finish where you need to finish. In INDYCAR you really can’t,” he notes.

He said that he did points race at the end of the 2021 season, but that was due to trying to secure his championship. He drove under the limit in doing so. This time, it’s far too early to be doing that and he feels like he should try and score more points to get an even bigger gap.

The thing is, podiums are no longer going to cut it. O’Ward has squandered finishes of 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 2nd, 3rd and 8th respectively when he’s finished on the lead lap. It’s those finishes of 17th (Long Beach), 24th (Indy 500) and 26th (Detroit) as to why he’s where he’s at today.

Same for Newgarden. He’s won twice (Texas, Indy 500). He’s finished second once (Road America). It’s 17th in St. Pete. It’s 15th in Barber. It’s 10th in Detroit. It’s 12th here. That’s why podiums no longer cut it.

The only real way to catch Palou now is if he makes some uncharacteristically bad mistakes and I use that in plural since he has such a big cushion.

So far? Palou hasn’t really had that many races that didn’t go well.

What’s even scarier for the field is, he’s just getting started.

“I would say I have more confidence with the car,” says Palou as to why he’s clicking so well now. “I know a little bit more what I need from the car. The same for the team. They know what I need. They know what works for me, what doesn’t.

“In 2021 we were just guessing and trying stuff. Sometimes works, sometimes it didn’t. ’22 we understood a little bit more. This year I just have more confidence with myself, with the car, obviously with the team.

“So yeah, it’s tough to say. I don’t think it’s one thing. I would say it’s a little bit of a lot of things that are helping us be more consistent.”

That’s led to a wave of confidence out of Palou. He feels better now than at any point of his entire racing career thus far.

“I would say it’s getting bigger,” Palou said of this momentum.

“Our performance is there.”

---

O’Ward/Grosjean’s Mistakes

Coming into the Month of May, Pato O’Ward sat three points out of the lead while Romain Grosjean was only 15 back. They had combined to finish second in each of the first five races to the season too. Over the last four?

Not once.

Can they respond?

O’Ward came into the 2023 NTT INDYCAR SERIES season wanting more. He had been close over the last few years but hasn’t truly been good enough to knock off Penske and t Ganassi from their throne on top of the series.

There’s a reason that Penske and Ganassi have won each of the last 10 series titles. If O’Ward and Arrow McLaren Racing was going to become the first team since 2013 to win a title not named Penske or Ganassi and the first team not named Andretti either since 2002, then they’d have to find more consistency.

The young Mexican start had two wins in each of the last two seasons. O’Ward also has had 9 podiums in that same two-year span (5 in 2021, 4 in 2022). Out of his 8 Top-5 finishes a year ago, only four of them landed on the podium.

That was the difference.

O’Ward’s had 13 starts of 7th or better (10 being 5th or better) over the course of the final 14 races in 2022. He only had 4 podiums to show for it.

That blueprint was there and the team worked so hard this offseason to fix it.

It all started off good for O’Ward this year too. While an engine malfunction while leading at the end of St. Pete happened, he still finished second. In the next race at Texas, second again. He was looking like a legitimate title contender.

Then came some mistakes. Over the next five races, O’Ward has made some costly errors to which he will look back come seasons end and point to these moments to why he may not be in the position that he needs to be in to hoist the Astor Cup championship trophy in Laguna Seca this Fall.

O’Ward had a bad strategy call in the second round of qualifying in Long Beach. That took him from a potential pole to qualifying sixth. In the race, he tried to make up too much ground too often and it bit him. He’d finish 17th.

O’Ward rebounded in Barber to finish fourth and then another runner-up in May’s GMR Grand Prix. He was back in the hunt again.

Unfortunately, being overzealous on a late race restart in the Indy 500 took him from a top three to a crash in 24th and then compounding a bad pit stop to a mistake on track for another crash in Detroit left him in 26th.

While O’Ward was upset at Marcus Ericsson for his mistake at Indy, he should have been more patient in the process. Yes, O’Ward went from first to third on the opening lap of the restart, but it looked like he tried too hard to get a position back entering Turn 3.

In Detroit, he was on the right strategy as he was the same as his teammates to start the race and they were all in the top five after the first stint, but an issue on the stop left him a lap down. He was hoping to pass Santino Ferrucci on track to be the first a lap down and got in too hot into Turn 9 and found the concrete wall.

“Race went upside down on that pit stop,” O’Ward said. “It was all downhill from there.”

While you have to be aggressive in this series, O’Ward has found the limit and has unfortunately passed over it. He needs to reel it in a bit because he has a championship caliber car, but he’s getting in his own way.

In the races he finished on the lead lap, he’s finished 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 2nd, 3rd and 8th respectively.

Similar circumstances for Grosjean.

So much speed. So much promise. So many mistakes.

A crash in the season opener in St. Pete while battling for the lead with 29 laps to go. A crash with two laps to go while running fourth in Texas. A crash in the Indy 500. A crash while running seventh in Detroit. Multiple mistakes in Road America.

Those finishes?

18th, 14th, 30th, 24th, 25th.

In the races he’s not had problems?

2nd, 2nd, 11th and 13th.

---

Still Penske vs. Ganassi Battle For Championship

Penske and Ganassi have combined to have won each of the last 10 series championships. As we sit at the midseason mark, I struggle to think anyone will top them again this year.

They have six of the top seven in points including 1-2-3-4-6-7. 

They’ve also won 8 of the 9 races this year and 41 of the 56 (73.2%) of the races with the Aeroscreen. Furthermore, if you go back to the 2022 Indy 500, they’ve combined to have won 18 of the last 22 (81.8%) of the races.

Can anyone stop them moving forward?

Next up is Toronto. Penske and Ganassi have won five straight there. Overall, they have combined to have won 7 of the last 8 street course races and 13 of the last 19 of them in general. Only Andretti Autosport (4 wins) and Arrow McLaren Racing (1 win) has won in this span.

Next up is the Iowa doubleheader. Penske has won 5 of the last 7.

The thing is, Penske has been the top dog on short ovals in general since 2018 with 9 wins in 13 tries. Josef Newgarden is tops among drivers with winning 7 of those 9 races for Penske himself.

On short ovals, this could be a Pato O’Ward vs. Josef Newgarden battle. The duo has combined to have won 7 of the last 8 oval races in general with Newgarden winning 6 of the last 8 by himself. He’s 2-for-2 this season. In fact,Newgarden and O’Ward have won five in-a-row dating back to Race 2 at World Wide Technology Raceway in 2020. They’ve also gone 1-2 in 5 of the last 12 oval races too.

That gets you to Nashville to where Ganassi is 2-for-2. Then it’s to the Indy road course for which Ganassi won with Palou this past May. Penske has won 3 of the 4 return trip weekend’s to the IMS road course.

After that it’s to Gateway. Remember that short oval stat?

The final two races are out west in Portland and Laguna Seca.

Ganassi won Portland in 2021, Penske won in 2022. Ganassi won Laguna Seca last year.

---

McLaren vs. Andretti For 3rd Best, But Top 4 Separating From The Pack

It’s clear Penske and Ganassi have distanced themselves from the rest. However, who’s next? Andretti statistically has, but McLaren looks primed to take over the third spot.

Chip Ganassi Racing has won five times this season (Marcus Ericsson – St. Pete, Alex Palou – Indianapolis, Detroit, Road America, Mid-Ohio). Team Penske has also won three times (Josef Newgarden – Texas, Indy 500, Scott McLaughlin – Barber). Andretti Autosport won the other (Kyle Kirkwood – Long Beach).

Combined, the “Big 3” have won every series championship since 2003 and 87% (47-for-54) of the races in the Aeroscreen era.

They also have 7 of the top 10 drivers in the standings right now too.

However, McLaren is coming. While they’ve only won twice in the last 34 races compared to five instances by Andretti, you can feel the tide coming.

McLaren now has two drivers in the top 8 in points. Andretti’s best is ninth. Between the four teams though, if you throw in Penske and Ganassi with Andretti and McLaren, they make up 12 of the top 13 in points.

The thing is, these four have really separated themselves in this era.

Since 2022, these four have won all 27 races and if you go back to 2021, they’ve won 37 straight. Furthermore, in this Aeroscreen era (57 races), they’ve won 94.7% (54-for-57) of them.

The last non “Big 4” team to win was Meyer Shank Racing in 2021. In fact, these teams didn’t win the Month of May at all with Ed Carpenter Racing’s Rinus VeeKay winning the GMR Grand Prix and Helio Castroneves the Indy 500.

The only other time they didn’t win was the 2020 Indy 500 with RLL and Takuma Sato.

That’s it.

The separation is real. You have the top 2, the next two, then the rest.

Penske has won 22 times. Ganassi has won 21. Andretti has won 7 and McLaren 4. The other teams are RLL, ECR and MSR each with 1.

---

Indy Is Back

Ratings were up. Attendance was nearing a sell out. What a Month of May that this year was. Josef Newgarden topped Marcus Ericsson for the fourth closest finish in the 107-year history of the Indianapolis 500 to wrap up a record setting Month at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

The margin of victory was .0974 of a second trails only 1992 – .043 of a second Al Unser Jr. over Scott Goodyear; 2014 – .0600 of a second Ryan Hunter-Reay over Helio Castroneves; 2006 – .0635 of a second Sam Hornish Jr. over Marco Andretti.

This is only the third time the Indianapolis 500 has been decided by a last-lap pass. The other two times: 2006: Sam Hornish (Team Penske) passed Marco Andretti on the front straightaway; 2011: Dan Wheldon passed JR Hildebrand on the front straightaway.

Ironically enough, that 2011 race was the last time a 32-year-old won this race as Newgarden became the ninth different driver to do so at that age.

Newgarden made the most significant position advancement in the field today, 16 positions, to claim his Indianapolis 500 victory.

That was aided by the first multi-time red flag conditions that this race has ever seen that wasn’t related to weather.

Still, this race had it all.

Newgarden started 17th, the lowest starting position for an Indianapolis 500 winner since Ryan Hunter-Reay triumphed from 19th on the starting grid in 2014.

Newgarden as the first American since Alexander Rossi in 2016, led five laps. The only winners to lead fewer laps were Joe Dawson, who led two in 1912, and Dan Wheldon, who led one lap in 2011.

There were 11 lap leaders who finished on the lead lap, beating the event record of nine, set in 2011. Also, fourteen different drivers led at least one lap today, tying with 2013 for the second-highest total in “500” history. The record is 15 drivers in 2017 and 2018.

There were 52 lead changes, the third-highest total in “500” history. The record is 68 in 2013, followed by 54 in 2016.

A record six former winners led the 2023 Indianapolis 500, surpassing the prior race record of five set in 1980, 1981 and 1993. The six former winners to lead today: Marcus Ericsson, Ryan Hunter-Reay, Alexander Rossi, Takuma Sato, Will Power and Helio Castroneves.

That’s just race day.

A weekend prior, you have the fastest female qualifier ever in Katherine Legge (231.070 mph) in Indianapolis 500 history. The previous single-lap record was 230.201 by Simona De Silvestro in 2021; the previous four-lap record was 229.439 by Sarah Fisher in 2002.

Agustin Canapino became the first Argentine driver to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 since Raul Riganti in 1940.

We also saw the first Spanish driver to win a pole for “The Greatest Spectacle in Racing,” in Alex Palou. He produced the fastest four-lap average speed in history for an Indianapolis 500 pole winner, 234.217 mph. The previous record was 234.046 set in 2022 by Scott Dixon. Arie Luyendyk set the all-time four-lap qualifying average speed record of 236.986 in 1996, but his run came on the second day of qualifications and wasn’t eligible for the pole.

This is the fastest starting field in Indianapolis 500 history, with an average speed of 232.184 mph. The previous fastest starting field came in 2022, with an average speed of 231.023.This is the third consecutive year the fastest field in history record has been set. This year’s field average speed is 232.184 mph. It was 231.023 in 2022 and 230.294 in 2021. The record before 2021 was 229.382, set in 2014.

This is the fastest front row in Indianapolis 500 history, with an average speed of 234.181 mph. The previous record was 233.643, set in 2022. This is also the closest front row in Indianapolis 500 history in terms of speed, with .103 of a mph separating pole winner Alex Palou from No. 3 starter Felix Rosenqvist. The previous record was .112 between pole sitter James Hinchcliffe and No. 3 starter Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2016.

The time gap between pole sitter Alex Palou and No. 2 qualifier Rinus VeeKay, .0040 of a second, is the closest in Indianapolis 500 history. The previous record was .01 between pole sitter Al Unser and No. 2 qualifier Johnny Rutherford in 1970.

The speed gap between pole sitter Alex Palou and No. 2 qualifier Rinus VeeKay, .006 of a mph, is the second closest in Indianapolis 500 history. The record is .003 between pole sitter Ryan Briscoe and No. 2 qualifier James Hinchcliffe in 2012.

Benjamin Pedersen turned the fastest qualifying lap by a rookie in Indianapolis 500 history, 233.297 mph. The previous record was 233.179 by Tony Stewart in 1996. He also, Pedersen, recorded the second-fastest four-lap qualifying average by a rookie in Indianapolis 500 history, 232.671 mph. The record is 233.100 set by Tony Stewart in 1996.

There were 84 qualifying attempts Saturday, May 21, an all-time record. The previous record was 73 in 2019.

What about the stories? Between Callum Ilott and Juncos Hollinger Racing’s turnaround cars from behind the slowest to being over 231 mph in 24 hours. To Abel Motorsports, as a first time team, making the show. To Graham Rahal being bumped out to back in after Stefan Wilson was injured in a Monday afternoon practice crash.

Indy had it all and gave us a deserving race winner.