LEXINGTON, OH — The lineup is set for Sunday’s Honda Indy 200 (1:30 p.m. ET, USA, INDYCAR Radio Network). Colton Herta will lead the field to green with Graham starting alongside.

7 of the last 8 races here were won by a front row starter including 5 of which from the pole. 3 of the last 4 here were won from the pole and 4 of the last 6 at that.

So they have the best chances? Can they pull it off?

We’ve had 8 different winners in the last 9 races here (Graham Rahal, Simon Pagenaud, Josef Newgarden (x2), Alexander Rossi, Scott Dixon, Will Power, Colton Herta and Scott McLaughlin).

Since 2020 which was the debut of the Aeroscreen, both Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing have each won 9 times on these types of tracks. Andretti Autosport has won the third most times (4) in this span (Aeroscreen era).

Only the McLaren win last year at Barber by Pato O’Ward and Ed Carpenter Racing on the Indy Road Course (2021) are the only other teams to have won on a natural road course during the Aeroscreen era.

They’re also dominating the podiums too. Between Penske (22), Ganassi (20) and Andretti (17), they’ve combined to have taken 59 of the 72 podiums chances (81.9%) in this span. Arrow McLaren Racing (5) and Dale Coyne Racing (4) are each next best, followed by ECR (3) and RLL (2).

Andretti, Penske and Ganassi have combined to win in all 8 races since 2016.

7 of the last 8 Mid-Ohio races have seen teammates on the podium.

2022: Penske-Ganassi-Penske

2021: Penske-Ganassi-Ganassi

2020 Race 1: Penske-Penske-Andretti

2020 Race 2: Andretti-Andretti-Andretti

2019: Ganassi-Ganassi-Andretti

2018: Andretti-SPM-Penske *

2017: Penske-Penske-RLL

2016: Penske-Penske-Andretti

That’s among the last 24 Mid-Ohio podiums, Penske has 11 of them (45.8%), Andretti with 7 (29.1%) and Ganassi 4 (16.6%). Between this trio, that’s 22 of the last 24 (91.6%).

This season, the podiums have gone:

Barber: Penske-Andretti-Penske

IMS: Ganassi-McLaren-McLaren

Road America: Ganassi-Penske-McLaren

Penske and Ganassi have swept the podium here in each of the last two years and have won the race in six of the last eight years overall. They also finished 1-2 in each of the last three races on the season too.

Top 5 Prediction

1. 26 Herta – You get the feel like they’re going to breakout and after the pole on Saturday, I think he’s too good to pass up.
2. 10 Palou – I think he plays it safe and while he was second in both practices this weekend, I can see him finishing there again too.
3. 27 Kirkwood – 8 wins in 10 Mid-Ohio starts and a third qualifying position. I’ll take that all day. With teammates on the podium in 7 of the last 8 races here, it makes sense that he and Herta can do so on Sunday. Kirkwood was 5th and 9th in practice ethis weekend,
4. 15 Rahal – Like Lundgaard at Indy, I think Rahal falls off the podium in the end.
5. 12 Power – He’s too good here to leave him out of the top five.