Is The Fourth Of July Weekend A New Mid-Ohio Tradition?

The NTT INDYCAR Series didn’t use to race much on holiday weekend’s outside of Memorial Day. It never truly worked out well for them. There was just too much going on and for a fan base that if we’re completely honest, wasn’t very large until recently, the attendance and ratings were always taking a dip in the summer holidays.

Between family gatherings, vacations, cookouts, other sporting events, etc, hosting an INDYCAR race during the Fourth of July or even Labor Day weekend was one that would usually would flop.

But, in the last few years, that’s since changed. INDYCAR raced on the Fourth of July in 2020 on the Indianapolis road course. It was behind closed doors but it was the first time that it felt right. The last two years, they ran in front of a large crowd in Mid-Ohio in both races.

Now, they’re back. If this works again, I can see Mid-Ohio becoming that new Fourth of July staple on the schedule. It’s a prime slot that could honestly succeed.

See, when NASCAR moved their annual Fourth of July race in Daytona away, it honestly opened up the door for INDYCAR. The Firecracker 400, or recently known as the Coke Zero Sugar 400, was the main race over this holiday weekend. You couldn’t compete.

When they went to Indy, then to Road America, it allowed INDYCAR to slide in and take some of the holiday thunder. It’s paid off.

With that said, is this something that both sides see fit? Does INDYCAR want to continue on this weekend and would Mid-Ohio still offer to host?

They’ve tried to make this weekend work before. Watkins Glen tried it on Fourth of July weekend between 2007 and 2010. It never really worked. In fact, it was the nail in the coffin as the final race was only July 4, 2010 before taking a five year break. When they came back, it was in September. That was a 2 year Labor Day weekend deal that never really worked either.

Maybe the holiday weekends were a fit for Watkins Glen. Nevertheless, it wasn’t a hit for INDYCAR at the time so they’ve typically skipped racing on them.

The thing is, maybe this time is the right time. In order to make a holiday weekend race work, you need a prime location and a marquee event. It’s why the Firecracker 400 in Daytona had always worked. It’s why the Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600 on Memorial Day weekend always works. It’s why the Southern 500 is the only thing that works for NASCAR on Labor Day weekend. They found that out the hard way by trying Fontana and Atlanta in that place.

INDYCAR needs that right fit for the Fourth of July to make it work. So far, Mid-Ohio seems to be the place.

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Can Anyone Break Into The “Big 3” Here?

This race has seen a lot of parity, but for whatever reason, they’re all among the “Big 3.” The last eight have been won by either Penske, Ganassi or Andretti. In fact, the podiums have been dominated by them too.

The last time someone not of these three organizations got a trophy here was SPM in 2018.

2022: Penske-Ganassi-Penske

2021: Penske-Ganassi-Ganassi

2020 Race 1: Penske-Penske-Andretti

2020 Race 2: Andretti-Andretti-Andretti

2019: Ganassi-Ganassi-Andretti

2018: Andretti-SPM-Penske *

2017: Penske-Penske-RLL

2016: Penske-Penske-Andretti

It’s been since 2015 since someone not of them won the race but that’s the only time in the last 17 years that it’s occurred.

Since 2020 which was the debut of the Aeroscreen, both Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing each have 9 wins on these types of tracks. Andretti Autosport has won the third most times (4) in this span (Aeroscreen era).

So far this season, Penske won Barber and Ganassi won on both the Indy road course won Road America.

Only the McLaren win last year at Barber by Pato O’Ward and Ed Carpenter Racing on the Indy Road Course (2021) are the only other teams to have won on a natural road course during the Aeroscreen era.

They’re also dominating the podiums too. Between Penske (22), Ganassi (20) and Andretti (17), they’ve combined to have taken 59 of the 72 podiums chances (81.9%) in this span. Arrow Mclaren Racing (5) and Dale Coyne Racing (4) are next best followed by ECR (3) and RLL (2).

Can anyone new break into their stranglehold on Sunday?

McLaren could be the top option. They had 2 of their three cars on the Indy road course podium, third in Road America (Pato O’Ward) and O’Ward scored the pole here last year. His teammate Felix Rosenqvist was a close second here in 2019 and won in 2020 at Road America. Alexander Rossi has six top six finishes in his last seven tries on the track including three podiums in his last six overall there. In qualifying here, he’s made the Fast 6 in 4 of the last 7 tries. He’s finished eighth, third and respectively on natural road courses in 2023.

Maybe it’s Rinus VeeKay. The Dutch driver scored a pair of top 11 results at the track in 2020 and was 16th in 2021. He rebounded to finish fourth a year ago. Can he get back into the thick of things with a win on Sunday? In USF2000 competition there, he was third and second respectively. He swept the weekend a year later in Indy Pro 2000 while scoring a pair of thirds a year after that in Indy Lights. He’s not made the Fast 6 yet here in INDYCAR but did at least make it out of the 1st round (9th, 11th, 11th, 11th) in 4 tries though too.

Simon Pagenaud is another option. At one point, this was his playground. Pagenaud had five top four finishes in a six races span including 10 straight top 10’s before his 14th place run in 2021. He was back in the top 10 (10th) a year ago. Now, he’s in another home team at MSR who consistently put out good cars for Jack Harvey here.

David Malukas qualified ninth and finished eighth last year.

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Can Ganassi Get Going At Mid-Ohio…Again?

Chip Ganassi Racing is bar none the best team in the series not only on the season, but also at Mid-Ohio too. They’ve won literally half of the races this year (4-for-8) including 3 of the last four at that.

However, they’ve not been so great at this track lately though. They’ve won just once in their last nine tries. That one though was a thrilling 1-2 photo finish in 2019 between Scott Dixon and Felix Rosenqvist. Can they get back going again?

Dixon, does have six Mid-Ohio triumphs but he’s also had just one podium in his last nine tries there too. Alex Palou did finish third and second his last two years here while Marcus Ericsson has finished second and sixth respectively.

In fact, Palou has won the last two races on the season including the last two on natural road courses in 2023.

Can they reclaim their ground here?

Ganassi, at one point, had 7 wins in an 8 year span here by three different drivers. They’re 1-for-9 since.

They’ve finished second in each of the last two years. Can they top Penske to get back?

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Should Race Distance Get Lengthened?

The Honda Indy 200 is technically no longer the “200” anymore. It’s not 200 laps nor 200 miles. In fact, it never truly was a 200-mile race other than 1990-1993. Prior, this was a 156-mile race at start (1980), then 202 miles from 1983-1989. 1994-2001 it was a scheduled 187 miles before moving back to 202 miles 2002 and 2003.

From 2007-2012, it was 85 laps or 202 miles. From 2013 through 2019, it was extended to a 90-lap race (203 miles).

That ended in 2020 in a doubleheader weekend during COVID. A pair of 75 lap races (169 miles each) ensued.

In 2021, it was back to a one race weekend but the distance was 80 laps (181 miles). It was that way last year and again this time around this weekend.

In saying that, which is the better distance here?

The strategy now is an easy two-stopper. You can try for three, but it typically won’t work. 10 of the top 11 finishers last July were on a two-stop strategy and the only reason that the third-place finisher, Will Power, wasn’t was because he had an opening lap spin and had to pit an extra time.

15 of the top 16 finishers in 2021 was on a two-stopper including the entire top 12.

I get the notion of 80 laps because it’s a sprint race. Yes, you have to conserve some to make it, but once you’re in the window, you can sprint to the finish. A three stopper opens up fuel save for those on two stops.

With 90 laps, it’s just 10 extra laps, but that’s also enough to open up an extra stop. 2 of the top 3 finishers in 2019 were on a three-stop strategy. The race winner was a two stopper. It was evenly split among the top six with 3 on two stops and 3 on 3 stops.

Alexander Rossi won in 2018 with a two stopper but the next 13 cars were on a three-stop strategy.

That opens up a better race because you create natural comers and goers. It may be a tad more confusing on who’s doing what in person, but strategy wise, it’s a win.

You get some drivers saving fuel on two stints to make it to the end on one less stop, but others just flying on qualifying laps because they know they may have one extra stop to make, but can make up the deficit by going faster laps.

So, which is better?

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Can Andretti Rebound?

Last year this was one of the most difficult weekend’s in Andretti Autosport history. They had so much inner turmoil that it was a black eye for this entire organization. Now, coming off of a tough race in Road America for which they should have won, can they rebound on Sunday?

Colton Herta said that he had the best car out there in the last race for the Sonsio Grand Prix at Road America. He wasn’t wrong. He started on the pole and led a race-high 33 of 55 laps under the sun filled Wisconsin skies. However, a bad strategy call took not only a win away, but a spot on the podium as well.

Herta led the first 11 laps before pitting for the first time on Lap 12. He’d take the lead back over on Lap 13 and would lead again until his second stop on Lap 25. Both times were under caution. The second one, he had a slower stop which took him from first to third among the leaders. The thing is, both Marcus Armstrong and Will Power didn’t pit which also meant Herta would be restarting the race from fifth.

He made quick work of Josef Newgarden on the Lap 28 restart and one lap later, moved by Alex Palou for what was going to be the top spot again once this cycled back.

Armstrong pit on Lap 30. Power pit on Lap 32. Herta inherited the lead back on Lap 33 and was sailing away with this.

Then came the questionable pit decision by his pit box. They called him down on Lap 40. It was 15 laps from the end. He could make it, but had to save some fuel in order to do so. The rest of the field didn’t follow him down. They pit a lap later.

That 4.014 extra miles allowed them to push until the end while Herta was in fuel save mode. While he took the lead back on Lap 47, he only held onto it for two laps. Palou got by on Lap 48 and a few laps later, then came the rest.

Herta faded to fifth in the end. It was a dejecting finish for a driver with so much promise. He still doesn’t have a podium this season and only has two top fives now at that.

This can’t make bossman Michael Andretti very happy. He made mention before the season opener in St. Pete that the entire organization studied these types of scenarios this offseason to improve upon.

8 races in, they’re still making the same mistakes.

“I mean we did have many races where we had very fast cars last year, but we tended to do something wrong, shoot ourselves in the foot one way or another,” Andretti said back in March. “That’s another thing we’ve really studied and worked on. Hopefully our pit stops will be better and strategies will be better.

“We really worked on trying to be a lot more detail-oriented, things like that.

“I hope it pays off.”

So far, it’s not.

It happened here last year where Herta took the lead but no one called him down pit road while INDYCAR was holding out to throw a caution to let the leaders pit. It caused Herta to lose the race and a top 10 too.

He won in 2020 and was eighth and ninth respectively prior. That’s why I don’t put a lot of stock in his 13th and 15th place runs the last 2 years.

Romain Grosjean’s free fall also continues. Entering the Month of May, he had two poles and a third place start in the first four races. He also had two consecutive runner-up finishes and sat fifth in points (-15).

Since?

His starts are 18th, 19th, 3rd and 19th with finishes of 11th, 30th, 24th and now 25th.

These are still his best type of tracks as he was seventh here in 2021. Now, he has the car that Ryan Hunter-Reay had six top eight finishes in including three podiums over his final five races. Grosjean was also runner-up in Barber. 3 of his 5 runner-up finishes in INDYCAR have come on natural road courses.

For the second straight race last time out too, Kyle Kirkwood was involved in a first lap crash in the first corner. For the second consecutive race, he’d rebound to finish in the top 10 as well. It makes you wonder what he could do if he kept his starting spot up front.

He qualified ninth with Foyt last year. In the Road to Indy, Kirkwood won all three times in USF2000 competition in 2018, won both times in Indy Pro 2000 in 2019 and won three of his four Indy Lights starts here in 2021 including a fifth place finish at the end.

That’s 8 wins in 9 tries.

Can one of them win on Sunday?

Still, on the season, Grosjean crashed going for the lead with 29 to go in St. Pete. He crashed from fourth with two laps left in Texas in a race that 3 of their 4 cars crashed. Grosjean was on the wrong end of strategy in Barber and finished runner-up.

The Month of May was dismal for the entire organization, Detroit was just okay and now Road America was a tough finish. Can they rebound?