TRACK: Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course (2.258-mile, 13-turn road course), DISTANCE: 80 Laps (180.64 Miles)
TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS
For the third straight year, Mid-Ohio will host the NTT IndyCar Series on the Fourth of July weekend. While from 2016-2019 this race was held at the end of July, this weekend marks the second earliest INDYCAR race here since 1980 when Johnny Rutherford won on July 13. The other being last year.
- 7 of the last 8 races here were won by a front row starter including 5 of which from the pole. 3 of the last 4 here were won from the pole and 4 of the last 6 at that.
- Expect few cautions. There’s been two or fewer in 7 of the last 8 races now at Mid-Ohio including 10 of the last 12. Five of the last 12 went from green flag to checkered flag without a stoppage.
- We’ve had 8 different winners in the last 9 races here (Graham Rahal, Simon Pagenaud, Josef Newgarden (x2), Alexander Rossi, Scott Dixon, Will Power, Colton Herta and Scott McLaughlin).
TRACK COMPARISONS/WHO’S BEEN GOOD ON THEM
Since 2020 which was the debut of the Aeroscreen, both Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing have each won 9 times on these types of tracks. Andretti Autosport has won the third most times (4) in this span (Aeroscreen era).
Only the McLaren win last year at Barber by Pato O’Ward and Ed Carpenter Racing on the Indy Road Course (2021) are the only other teams to have won on a natural road course during the Aeroscreen era.
They’re also dominating the podiums too. Between Penske (22), Ganassi (20) and Andretti (17), they’ve combined to have taken 59 of the 72 podiums chances (81.9%) in this span. Arrow McLaren Racing (5) and Dale Coyne Racing (4) are each next best, followed by ECR (3) and RLL (2).
Andretti, Penske and Ganassi have combined to win in all 8 races since 2016.
7 of the last 8 Mid-Ohio races have seen teammates on the podium.
2022: Penske-Ganassi-Penske
2021: Penske-Ganassi-Ganassi
2020 Race 1: Penske-Penske-Andretti
2020 Race 2: Andretti-Andretti-Andretti
2019: Ganassi-Ganassi-Andretti
2018: Andretti-SPM-Penske *
2017: Penske-Penske-RLL
2016: Penske-Penske-Andretti
That’s among the last 24 Mid-Ohio podiums, Penske has 11 of them (45.8%), Andretti with 7 (29.1%) and Ganassi 4 (16.6%). Between this trio, that’s 22 of the last 24 (91.6%).
This season, the podiums have gone:
Barber: Penske-Andretti-Penske
IMS: Ganassi-McLaren-McLaren
Road America: Ganassi-Penske-McLaren
Penske and Ganassi have swept the podium here in each of the last two years and have won the race in six of the last eight years overall. They also finished 1-2 in each of the last three races on the season too.
Qualifying
7 of the last 8 races here were won by a front row starter including 5 of which from the pole. 3 of the last 4 here were won from the pole and 4 of the last 6 at that.
It’s not just here, it’s natural courses everywhere.
Starting positions for natural road courses lately (since 2016) 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 7th, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 20th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 8th, 2nd, 8th, 2nd, 1st, 7th, 9th, 7th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 7th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, 1st and 1st, 2nd, 14th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 11th, 4th, 3rd and 3rd. That’s 45 of the last 49 (91.8%) coming from the top 10 including 22 from the pole and 38 of 49 (77.5%) from the Fast 6.
Since 2020, the year the Aeroscreen debuted, 13 of the 24 races (54.1%) have been won via a front row starter including 9 of the last 14 (64.2%) and 5 of the 9 (63%) last year. 18 of the 24 (75%) were won from a Fast Six starter while 22 of the last 24 (91.6%) from the top 10.
Favorites – Ganassi vs. Penske vs. Andretti?
Josef Newgarden
Newgarden has 2 top 2 finishes in his last 4 Mid-Ohio starts and was seventh last year. He also has 8 top 5 starting spots in his last 10 races at Mid-Ohio too. On natural road courses this season, he’s finished 15th, 7th and 2nd respectively.
Scott McLaughlin
The defending race winner also won at Barber back in April and eighth in Road America.
Will Power
He may only have one win but it’s hard to leave the guy with seven top seven finishes in his last eight tries, six of which being in the top four off the favorites list. He’s qualified in the Fast 6 in 12 of his last 14 Mid-Ohio starts with 6 of the last 9 on the front row. Last year he came from a first lap spin to where he fell to last to finish on the podium in third. He also finished third in April at Barber.
Alex Palou
Palou won three times on natural road courses in his championship winning campaign a year ago and was third and second in his last two starts on this very track. Palou won a couple of months ago on the Indy road course too, the last time out in Road America and was fifth in Barber. He’s in an untouchable zone right now and it would be hard to pick against him on Sunday.
Marcus Ericsson
Ganassi has been great in the past at Mid-Ohio including Ericsson finishing fifth in Sept. 2020, runner-up in 2021 and sixth last year. Ericsson finished 10th, 8th and 6th respectively on natural road courses this season too.
Pato O’Ward
3 top 11 finishes before a pole last year. A mechanical failure took him out. With being fourth in Barber, runner-up in Indy and third in Road America this season, I think he will be a threat on Saturday (qualifying) and on Sunday (race day)
Sleepers
Alexander Rossi
He has six top six finishes in his last seven tries on the track including three podiums in his last six overall there. In qualifying here, he’s made the Fast 6 in 4 of the last 7 tries. He’s finished eighth, third and 10th respectively on natural road courses in 2023.
Colton Herta
He won in 2020 and was eighth and ninth respectively prior. That’s why I don’t put a lot of stock in his 13th and 15th place runs the last 2 years. He had an issue while leading in 2021 and the team didn’t have him pit under caution while leading last year. He’s qualified 7th, 13th, 1st, 2nd and 3rd respectively here and should have won Road America two weeks ago.
Romain Grosjean
These are his type of tracks and he was seventh in 2021. Now, he has the car that Ryan Hunter-Reay had six top eight finishes in including three podiums over his final five races. Grosjean was runner-up in Barber. 3 of his 5 runner-up finishes in INDYCAR have come on natrual road courses.
Kyle Kirkwood
He qualified ninth with Foyt last year. In the Road to Indy, Kirkwood won all three times in USF2000 competition in 2018, won both times in Indy Pro 2000 in 2019 and won three of his four Indy Lights starts here in 2021 including a fifth place finish at the end.
That’s 8 wins in 9 tries.
Graham Rahal
He has nine top 10 finishes in his last 10 “home race” starts including seven of them being in the top six. He scored a pair of fourth place results in September 2020 on his home track and was sixth and 12th respectively the last two July’s. He’s only made the Fast 6 just 3 times in the last 12 tries at his home track though but 7x since 2014 he’s at least made it out of the 1st round in quals too.
Christian Lundgaard
These are his best types of tracks. He was in the Fast Six and finished there in Barber. He qualified seventh and finished there in Road America. He won the pole and finished fourth in Indy. He finished 11th here a year ago.
Jack Harvey
This could be his day. Harvey, now with the hometown team at RLL, has two top 10 finishes in his last five Mid-Ohio starts and hungry for a win. He also swept the weekend in Mid-Ohio in Indy Lights competition in 2014 too. His detriment is he’s only qualified 20th, 9th, 5th, 19th, 23rd and 24th respectively.
Rinus VeeKay
He scored a pair of top 11 results at the track in 2020 and was 16th in 2021. He rebounded to finish fourth a year ago. Can he get back into the thick of things with a win on Sunday? In USF2000 competition there, he was third and second respectively. He swept the weekend a year later in Indy Pro 2000 while scoring a pair of thirds a year after that in Indy Lights. He’s not made the Fast 6 yet here in INDYCAR but did at least make it out of the 1st round (9th, 11th, 11th, 11th) in 4 tries though too.
Simon Pagenaud
At one point, this was his playground. Pagenaud had five top four finishes in a six races span including 10 straight top 10’s before his 14th place run in 2021. He was back in the top 10 (10th) a year ago. Now, he’s in another home team at MSR who consistently put out good cars for Jack Harvey here.
David Malukas
Qualified ninth and finished eighth last year.
Be Wary
Scott Dixon
He’s won six times on this track. He has 16 top 10’s in his last 17 starts here. However, 1 podium in his last 9 tries on this track and only 1 on the year makes me nervous to pick him. Dixon has also finished 7th, 6th and 4th respectively on natural road courses in 2023.
Felix Rosenqvist
He narrowly lost here as a rookie in 2019 in being runner-up to Dixon. He was sixth in Race 1 of the 2020 weekend. But, over his next three starts? 22nd, 23rd and 27th respectively. While he has two top 10 finishes in three natural road course starts this season, his best finish is 5th.
Helio Castroneves
This hasn’t been a strong track for him lately. He’s not had a top five in any of his last 8 Mid-Ohio starts with 3 of his last 5 seeing him finish 15th or worse.
Top Stat
This race has seen some domination lately. Josef Newgarden led 73 of 80 laps in 2021. Colton Herta led 57 of 75 in Race 2 of 2020. Will Power led 66 of 75 a day prior. Alexander Rossi led 66 of 90 in 2018 while Newgarden led 73 of 90 in 2017. Who’s next?
Scott McLaughlin led 45 of 80 a year ago. Pato O’Ward led 28 of the remaining 35. Only Colton Herta (7 laps led) led a year ago.
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