Momentum Halted?

The NASCAR industry got a much-needed break last week. It was actually the first off week for the NASCAR Cup Series since the week between the Clash and the Daytona 500. Once the teams rolled into the Daytona International Speedway this past winter for Speedweeks, they’ve been on the road for 17 straight weeks (including the All-Star Race) ever since.

That’s why last week was a benefit to have. It also served as the only week off between now and Phoenix, so beginning this weekend in Nashville, the Cup Series will run 20 straight weekends to the finish line.

However, for some drivers, they didn’t want to have any breaks in the action. That’s because they had accumulated a ton of momentum entering the break.

Kyle Busch had five top seven finishes over the last six weeks prior including not only four straight, but also two consecutive top two finishes in his No. 8 Chevrolet.

Martin Truex Jr. had just won Sonoma and had five top eight finishes in the last six weeks too. He had only three in the first 10 weeks to the season. That hot stretch propelled himself to the points lead entering the break.

Joey Logano had just three top five finishes in the first 14 weeks, but had two straight third place finishes before the week off. Four of his previous five finishes prior to that was 30th (Talladega), 31st (Dover), 18th (Darlington) and 21st (Coca-Cola 600).

Chris Buescher had five top 10 finishes over the last seven weeks including a fourth place run in Sonoma.

Michael McDowell was ninth in Gateway and seventh at Sonoma.

How much does the week off halt any of their momentum?

---

Ross Chastain

Speaking of momentum, Ross Chastain had it, then he lost it. Now, he’s struggling to get it back. Chastain, went from the points lead in early May to sixth entering Sonoma. He did gain a couple of spots to enter the off week fourth in the standings. However, it just seems like his spark was gone.

After battling for the win with Kyle Larson late in Darlington last month, the two tangled. Rick Hendrick had about enough of Chastain’s aggressive driving style and verbally made note of which in the post-race winners press conference.

Trackhouse Racing admitted in the week between Darlington and the All-Star race that they sat Chastain down to talk to him about racing the way that he was.

His finishes before Darlington?

Four top fives in seven races.

His finishes since Darlington?

29th, 22nd, 22nd and 10th respectively.

He just doesn’t seem like the same aggressive driver that he was prior and I warned against this too. Chastain has driven aggressively all his NASCAR life. He’s had to. In order to make it in this world, you have to drive the way that he was.

Once he made it to the premiere level though, some wondered if he’d temper that aggression. After all, why drive so hard now that he’s made it?

Chastain couldn’t scale back. This is what made it him get here, so why stop now? It paid off in the tune of two wins a year ago and a march to the Championship 4 for which he lost by 236 feet.

He was aggressive to start 2023 and was the points leader. Now that the aggression is gone, his stats and momentum left too.

This weekend is back to Nashville and it’s a prime place that he can get it back. He was third and second respectively the last two years at Dover, had a car capable of winning Darlington the last two years and was runner-up and fifth here in his two tries.

Need I say any more?

---

Hendrick vs. Gibbs Battle?

Hendrick Motorsports is 2-for-2 on the 1.33-mile concrete track at Nashville this weekend. Can they three-peat? In fact, if you back to the final year of the Nashville Fairgrounds, that’s a race Geoff Bodine won with HMS giving the organization winners of the last three trips to Music City USA.

Kyle Larson was fourth a year ago after dominating the 2021 race. The thing is, he was 32nd and 20th respectively at Dover and Darlington this year too. In saying that, he had a fast car in Dover and was an innocent bystander for Ross Chastain taking out Brennan Poole. In Darlington, had the race won before a late caution and Chastain’s bumper again.

Watch out for Larson.

Chase Elliott qualified sixth and fourth respectively and won a year ago too. Elliott was 11th and third this year on Dover and Darlington as well. He enters off of a top five finish two weeks ago in Sonoma and is badly needing a win to stamp his name into the playoffs.

William Byron finished third in 2021, he won Darlington this year and was fourth in Dover also this spring too. With HMS having won both races at this track by two different drivers, Byron is next in line for victory. He has six top eight finishes over the last seven points paying races.

The thing is, the organization has struggled in finding wins lately. After scoring four wins in a seven-race span, they’ve since won just once (Darlington) in the last seven points paying races.

That may open the door for Joe Gibbs Racing.

Chevrolet led 282 of 300 laps in 2021. Toyota last year upped the ante in leading 253 of 300 in 2022 and had Truex, Hamlin and Kyle Busch as the top three drivers before that late race caution. It brought them down pit road which handed the win to Elliott.

I don’t think they make the same mistake twice.

Truex has a host of momentum and coming off of a win in Sonoma. Stats may say a 22nd place finish in both races here, however, Truex led 82 laps last year and was a bad pit call away from a win. He swept both stages a year ago and won at Dover this year as well as having race winning car in Darlington before crashing.

Denny Hamlin was only 21st in 2021, but also led 114 laps from the pole in a sixth-place effort last year. He was second in both stages a year ago too. He had a top three car, but a bad pit call at the end kept him out of victory lane. He was fifth and 12th at Dover and Darlington respectively this year too.

Then there’s Christopher Bell. He has a pair of Top-10 finishes (9th, 8th) as well as being sixth in Dover and 14th in Darlington this year. He needs momentum. He was second in points and now down to seventh. His last top five finish was his Bristol Dirt win on Easter Night. 5 of his last 9 finishes have been 11th or worse.

The thing is, Ford has led a combined 10 of the 600 laps here. They only had two cars in the top eight last year and two in the top nine a year prior.

Also, they only led 8 of the 400 laps in Dover and 9 of the 295 in Darlington. Stats prove that they may be the ones to fade this weekend which could shape a Hendrick vs. Gibbs battle for the win on Sunday night.k