PLYMOUTH, Wisc — Qualifying is everything here. All eight races since the series has been back have been won via a top 10 starter including 6 of the 8 from the top 5. 4 of those 6 were won from the front row at that.

In fact, even before that, there was 25 races and 24 of them were won from a top 10 starter making them 32-for-33 in producing race winners. 27 of the 33 were won from the Fast Six at that.

It’s not just here that track position at the start is so key. It’s natural road courses in general.

Starting positions for natural road courses lately (since 2016) 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 7th, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 20th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 8th, 2nd, 8th, 2nd, 1st, 7th, 9th, 7th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 7th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, 1st and 1st, 2nd, 14th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 11th, 4th and 3rd. That’s 44 of the last 48 (91.6%) coming from the top 10 including 22 from the pole and 37 of 48 (77%) from the Fast 6.

Since 2020, the year the Aeroscreen debuted, 13 of the 23 races (59%) have been won via a front row starter including 9 of the last 13 (75%) and 5 of the 9 (63%) last year. 17 of the 23 (73.9%) were won from a Fast Six starter while 21 of the last 23 (91.3%) from the top 10.

Also, if you don’t make the Fast Six, you basically are playing for fifth place on back. 19 of the 24 podium spots since 2016 were taken via a Fast Six qualifier including each of the last two years.

Since 2020 which was the debut of the Aeroscreen, Team Penske has 9 wins on these types of tracks. Andretti Autosport has won the third most times (4) in this span (Aeroscreen era) with only Penske’s 9 and Chip Ganassi Racing (8) with more.

Only the McLaren win last year at Barber by Pato O’Ward and Ed Carpenter Racing on the Indy Road Course (2021) are the only other teams to have won on a natural road course during the Aeroscreen era.

They’re also dominating the podiums too. Between Penske (21), Ganassi (19) and Andretti (17), they’ve combined to have taken 57 of the 69 podiums chances (83%) in this span. Dale Coyne Racing and Arrow McLaren Racing are each next best with four apiece, followed by ECR (3) and RLL (2).

Andretti, Penske and Ganassi have combined to win in all 8 races since 2016.

Podium Finishes at Road America since comeback in 2016 (24 spots)

Penske 9

Ganassi 7

Andretti 5

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing 1

Arrow McLaren Racing 1

Dale Coyne Racing 1

So, who wins?

Top 5 Finishers

1. 7 Rossi – Quickest in both practice sessions this weekend but starts fifth. He has a car capable of a win and has said just get him a great starting spot and he can. Now, he has it. In the last natural road course, McLaren took 2 of the top 3 spots on the podium. Just not the top step. Why not now?
2. 10 Palou – If not for a crash in practice, he had pole winning pace. He was 3rd in Friday’s practice. Palou has seven straight top five finishes on the season and won here two years ago.
3. 26 Herta – 2nd on Saturday morning and pole on Saturday afternoon. 4 of his previous 9 poles have resulted in a victory. However, his last pole-race win came in 2021 and he’s not had a podium all season. He was 9th in practice when all the big cars ran a clean session on Friday. I think he’s close, but not better than Rossi or Palou.
4. 5 O’Ward – 5th and 7th in practice and starts second. He was runner-up in 2020 here.
5. 11 Armstrong – He’s been so impressive this season and with an 8th place starting spot, watch out.