TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS
This will be the eighth straight year that the series has been coming back to this historic venue. See, this was always a permanent placement on the open wheel calendar. They came here every year from 1982 through 2007. But, with the unification of the two open wheel series for 2008, Road America was a casualty. Then, it came back in 2016 and has been around ever since.
- 6 of the 7 races saw 3 or fewer yellows including 2 (2018, 2019) going caution free.
- The series champion has been on the podium in Road America in 5 of the last 6 years too.
TRACK COMPARISONS/WHO’S BEEN GOOD ON THEM
Since 2020 which was the debut of the Aeroscreen, Team Penske has 9 wins on these types of tracks. Andretti Autosport has won the third most times (4) in this span (Aeroscreen era) with only Penske’s 9 and Chip Ganassi Racing (8) with more.
Only the McLaren win last year at Barber by Pato O’Ward and Ed Carpenter Racing on the Indy Road Course (2021) are the only other teams to have won on a natural road course during the Aeroscreen era.
They’re also dominating the podiums too. Between Penske (21), Ganassi (19) and Andretti (17), they’ve combined to have taken 57 of the 69 podiums chances (83%) in this span. Dale Coyne Racing and Arrow McLaren Racing are each next best with four apiece, followed by ECR (3) and RLL (2).
Andretti, Penske and Ganassi have combined to win in all 8 races since 2016.
Podium Finishes at Road America since comeback in 2016 (24 spots)
Penske 9
Ganassi 7
Andretti 5
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing 1
Arrow McLaren Racing 1
Dale Coyne Racing 1
Qualifying
Qualifying is everything here. All eight races since the series has been back have been won via a top 10 starter including 6 of the 8 from the top 5. 4 of those 6 were won from the front row at that. In fact, even before that, there was 25 races and 24 of them were won from a top 10 starter making them 32-for-33 in producing race winners. 27 of the 33 were won from the Fast Six at that.
It’s not just here that track position at the start is so key. It’s natural road courses in general.
Starting positions for natural road courses lately (since 2016) 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 7th, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 20th, 1st, 4th, 1st, 8th, 2nd, 8th, 2nd, 1st, 7th, 9th, 7th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 7th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, 1st and 1st, 2nd, 14th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 11th, 4th and 3rd. That’s 44 of the last 48 (91.6%) coming from the top 10 including 22 from the pole and 37 of 48 (77%) from the Fast 6.
Since 2020, the year the Aeroscreen debuted, 13 of the 23 races (59%) have been won via a front row starter including 9 of the last 13 (75%) and 5 of the 9 (63%) last year. 17 of the 23 (73.9%) were won from a Fast Six starter while 21 of the last 23 (91.3%) from the top 10.
Also, if you don’t make the Fast Six, you basically are playing for fifth place on back. 19 of the 24 podium spots since 2016 were taken via a Fast Six qualifier including each of the last two years.
Top 5 Favorites
McLaren Racing
While they only have one podium here since 2016, this weekend could be the one that they snag at least another.
They took 2 of the 3 podium spots in the GMR Grand Prix and had all three cars in the top five that day. They went 4-8-9 in Barber too. They were 1-5-8 in Practice 1 and 1-3-7 in Practice 2. They’ll start 1-5-16 too.
Pato O’Ward has 3 top 10’s in his last 5 starts here including a runner-up in the middle. He blew an engine last year. He was fourth in Barber. He starts on the front row in second.
Alexander Rossi won this race in 2019 and was third in two of his last three starts here including last season. The only other finishes in that span was 19th in Race 1 of 2020 and seventh in 2021. He’s went from 14th to 6th in points over the last three races including three straight top five finishes (3rd, 5th, 5th). He was quickest in both practice sessions and qualified fifth.
Felix Rosenqvist won in 2020 and sixth in 2019. Last year, he started seventh and finished sixth. At Barber, he went from the top 10 at the start, to last after a spin, back to the top 10 in the end. While he only qualified 16th, he was 8th and 3rd in practice.
Alex Palou
He was third and seventh on this track in 2020 with Coyne and won in 2021. Palou qualified third a year ago but crashed and finished last early on in the race. He was fifth and first respectively on natural road courses this season and coming off of a string with 2 wins and 2 poles in the last 3 races. He was third quick on Friday and starts there on Sunday.
Colton Herta
He’s never finished worse than eighth here in five tries (8th, 5th, 5th, 2nd, 5th respectively). He’s also only qualified outside the top seven just once (11th last year) with qualifying first, seventh, second, second, 11th and 1st respectively. 4 of his 9 previous poles have ended up in victory lane. He was P2 in practice on Saturday as well.
Top 5 Sleepers:
Kyle Kirkwood
He’s already a winner this year and driving Rossi’s old car. Kirkwood won 5 of his 6 Road to Indy starts here as well. He’ll start sixth.
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
They’ve long been good here but just haven’t won.
Graham Rahal has seven Road America finishes – third, eighth, sixth, fourth, seventh, 11th and eighth respectively. This could be his weekend. He starts 14th after being 11th and 15th in practice.
Christian Lundgaard was 10th a year ago and not only made the Fast Six in Barber, but finished there (6th) as well. He was 7th and 11th in practice this weekend and rolls off seventh.
In the GMR Grand Prix, they scored the pole and had all three cars start in the top 8.
Santino Ferrucci
Was 13th and 6th in practice and qualified a respectable 11th.
David Malukas
Was surprising to see him ousted in the first round of qualifying, but he still starts 13th. He was 2nd and 4th in practice.
Fades
Josef Newgarden
He should have won in 2021 by leading 32 laps from the pole. His car quit on him on the final restart. Newgarden got redemption in leading 26 laps and taking the win. He also led 53 of 55 laps in his 2018 win too. The Team Penske driver was third in 2019 and runner-up in 2017 as well. He starts fourth on Sunday. However, on natural road courses this season, he’s finished 15th and 7th respectively. Newgarden was only 16th and 12th in practices too.
Scott McLaughlin
14th to 7th to…1st? McLaughlin has 4 career INDYCAR wins and 3 of them have come on natural road courses including this spring at Barber. Trends are on his side for a win this weekend. However, he was only 15th and 9th in practice and qualified just 18th.
Will Power
He’s had three top two finishes in 8 tries and a podium in four of them at that. He was third at Barber this past April and third here in 2021 as well to give him three podiums in his last five starts on this scenic Wisconsin road course. He enters on the heels of a runner-up finish in Detroit. The thing is, a crash in practice put him 25th. He was only 17th on Friday. He’ll start 22nd.
Scott Dixon
5 top fives including two wins and a third place effort in his last 7 tries made him the favorite in my opinion coming into the weekend. However, a crash on Saturday morning and qualifying 23rd take him from a favorite to a fade now. He was ninth a year ago and 7th and sixth respectively on natural road courses in 2023.
Marcus Ericsson
He was 10th in Race 1 and fourth in Race 2 in 2020. He was also sixth and second respectively the last two years as well. Ericsson finished 10th and 8th respectively on natural road courses this season too. So not spectacular, but not bad either. Kind of like his weekend – 6th, 23rd in practice, starts 9th.
Romain Grosjean
These are his best types of tracks which is why it was puzzling that he was only 18th and 22nd in practice an qualified just 19th. Grosjean finished fifth and fourth respectively in his two year history at Road America. He was also runner-up back in late April at Barber Motorsports Park too. 3 of his 5 runner-up finishes in INDYCAR have come on natural road courses. So, for him to say what he’s said this weekend, it’s puzzling.
Simon Pagenaud
6 of his 8 finishes have been 9th or worse. He starts 20th.
Helio Castroneves
Prior to last year, his three previous starts, he was ninth, seventh and third respectively. Last year, he qualified 16th and finished 22nd. This year, he qualified 26th.
Rinus VeeKay
His three finishes are 13th, 14th and 17th respectively. He starts 15th.
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