If not for all these penalties in the NASCAR Cup Series, the playoff battle to make the 16-driver field may be in a much different state. Instead, it’s kind of helped make paths easier for some and harder for others.

The thing is, if not for both Alex Bowman and William Byron’s 60-point penalties back in the spring, the top and bottom of the playoff grid could look vastly different.

Byron is -13 to Ryan Blaney at the top of the regular season standings, but would be +47 if that penalty doesn’t occur. Similar for Bowman who’s -6 to Daniel Suarez right now for that 16th and final spot. Bowman instead, would be ahead of Bubba Wallace 367-334 if he doesn’t get penalized and as a result, Wallace would be on the cutline 21 points clear of Suarez.

Then you have the situations to where drivers are facing must wins and are really too far out not to points their way in.

Erik Jones just now received an L-1 penalty for the same infraction as Byron and Bowman’s cars from Richmond. It cost him 60 points, five playoff points, a suspended crew chief in Dave Elenz for the next two races and fined him $75,000.

Austin Dillon was hit with an L-1 penalty back in April for an underwing assembly and hardware from the April 16 NASCAR Cup Series race at Martinsville Speedway. That cost him 60 points and five playoff points, respectively as well as a $75,000 fine to crew chief Keith Rodden and a two-race suspension for him.  

Chase Briscoe had L3-level penalty, the most severe punishment under the current system, to Stewart-Haas Racing after finding a counterfeit part in the team’s No. 14 Ford.

As a result of this, the No. 14 team was docked 120 points in both the owner standings and driver standings for Chase Briscoe; an additional loss of 25 playoff points should Briscoe and the team qualify for the postseason; and a $250,000 fine and suspension in the next six points races to crew chief John Klausmeier.

According to the penalty grid issued by NASCAR, the team violated multiple sections of the NASCAR Rule Book. That includes Section 14.1F, which prohibits counterfeiting a Next Gen single source vendor-supplied part, along with Section 14.6.A Underwing, and 14.6.3B Engine Panel Assembly.

The engine panel assembly rule specifically notes that the engine panel NACA duct must be used and must remain unobstructed.

Then you have Chase Elliott’s injury for which he missed six weeks as well as a suspension for Gateway to put him in the must-win mix.

Really, Jones, Dillon, Elliott and Briscoe have to win over the next 11 races or they’re not going to make the playoffs.

That leaves the prospects of having more than 16 regular season winners slim. We have 10 different winners with six wildcard spots open and 11 weeks left.

Numbers say that we can still reach that feat. However, stats may say otherwise.

Among those winless right now on the season, how many do you truly feel good about reaching victory lane? Ross Chastain is winless in his last 41 starts and sliding backwards. Brad Keselowski hasn’t won a race in his last 77 tries. Chris Buescher has 1 win since 2017. Aric Almirola hasn’t won in his last 65 starts.

Austin Cindric has 1 career win (50 races ago). Same for Michael McDowell (86 races ago) and Briscoe. Austin Dillon has 1 top 5 all season. McDowell and Cindric have none. Erik Jones has two top 10’s all season.

Ryan Preece, Corey LaJoie, Todd Gilliland, Harrison Burton, Noah Gragson and Ty Dillon have never won.

In saying that, the points battle has actually been a fun one and could come down to the wire. For the regular season championship, Blaney leads Byron by only 13 points. Harvick is -22 and Truex Jr. -23.

At the bottom for the 16th and final spot, Daniel Suarez is leading Bowman by six points. Ty Gibbs is just 15 points back.

In front of them is Bubba Wallace (+27).