Can Ross Chastain/Christopher Bell Stop Slides
Coming into last month’s Goodyear 400, Ross Chastain and Christopher Bell each sat 1-2 in points. Chastain had four top five finishes in a seven-week span while Bell had four top eight’s in a six-week span.
However, they’ve both fallen since.
Chastain’s last three finishes are 29th, 22nd and 22nd respectively. Bell’s last four is 36th, 14th, 24th and 11th. They’ve free fallen from 1-2 in points to 5-6.
I wondered when Trackhouse sat Chastain down after his Darlington incident with Kyle Larson that by doing so, it could affect his results. Chastain is who he is and when you reign in his aggression level, it takes away his strengths.
While I don’t think he’s in jeopardy of missing the playoffs, I do think he’s lost the luster and attention of being a player at the moment for this year’s championship.
Blaney’s Rise
It’s amazing what momentum can do for you. While Chastain and Bell have fallen, Ryan Blaney has risen back up the ranks. He was seventh (-54) leaving Kansas last month. He’s now in first, +13 overall.
After just three top 10 finishes in the opening eight weeks of the season, the Team Penske driver has scored six in the last seven weeks alone including a win in the prestigious Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte.
With ending that 59-race winless skid, Blaney looks to be back to his 2021 form again and could easily be on his way to a potential championship this Fall.
Veterans Quietly Getting The Job Done
Ryan Blaney and William Byron may be 1-2 in points, but when looking behind them, there’s a talented host of veterans that are quietly running strong. Kevin Harvick has catapulted up to third in points on the heels of four straight top 11 finishes in his No. 4 Ford. He only had five in the previous 11 races.
Behind him is Martin Truex Jr. He has six top eight finishes in the last eight points paying races including two straight top fives.
Kyle Busch is behind Chastain and Bell and he’s already won three times on the season. Denny Hamlin is behind him with three top five finishes in the last five weeks.
Joe Gibbs Racing Lurking
Toyota produced two of the top five finishers on Sunday in Gateway and while they led just four laps, they have to feel good about where they stand at the moment.
3 of the 4 JGR drivers sit in the top eight in points right now with all three having won a race already this season. They had the same amount of wins at this point a year ago too.
But, while they’ve led 1,038 laps this season as a whole between the Toyota camp, if you factor the 23XI Racing cars, you have 5 of the 6 Toyota drivers inside of the cutline right now.
Toyota led 65 of 196 laps in Talladega. They then led 73 of 400 at Dover, 148 of 267 at Kansas, 157 of 295 in Darlington and 96 of 400 in Charlotte.
While Chevrolet has won four of the last five races and Ford the other, I think Toyota’s are going to be ones to beat later.
Maybe not this weekend necessarily.
Many wondered if Toyota truly had a deficit on road courses or did their drivers maybe miss a step. Toyota’s struggled last year on these tracks. Martin Truex Jr finished 7th, 26th, 13th, 21st, 23rd and 17th in the 6 races on them a year ago. Denny Hamlin was 18th, 31st, 17th, 14th, 20th and 13th respectively himself. Kyle Busch was 28th, 30th, 29th, 11th, 32nd and third. Christopher Bell being 3rd, 27th, 18th, 12th, 8th and first was the bright spot. Bubba Wallace was 38th, 36th, 35th, 5th, 35th and 7th. The 45 ride which is now the 23 was 32nd, 18th, 23rd, 17th, 16th and 22nd between Kurt Busch and Ty Gibbs.
In saying this, how much would another change to the racing package bring them together or does Chevrolet make further gains?
Reddick proved that while the Toyota package overall was down with them finishing 9th (Ty Gibbs), 16th (Denny Hamlin), 17th (Martin Truex Jr), 31st (Christopher Bell) and 37th (Bubba Wallace), he still can get the job done in leading 41 of 75 laps en route to the victory this past March in COTA.
I’d say he answered the question on if Toyota is truly that far off in comparison to everyone else. Or did he truly do so? Maybe he’s just among the best road course racers in the game today.
Reddick has four Cup wins now with three of which coming on road courses including now having a win in half of the six of them on the schedule.
He won last July in Road America as well as Indianapolis and again in COTA.
Points Battles Are Closer
With Kyle Busch winning for the third time already this season and William Byron also having three wins himself, the prospects of having more than 16 regular season winners is slimming. We have 10 different winners with six wildcard spots open and 11 weeks left.
Numbers say that we can still reach that feat. However, stats may say otherwise.
Among those winless right now on the season, how many do you truly feel good about reaching victory lane? Ross Chastain is winless in his last 41 starts and sliding backwards. Brad Keselowski hasn’t won a race in his last 77 tries. Chris Buescher has 1 win since 2017. Aric Almirola hasn’t won in his last 65 starts. Chase Briscoe’s team is reeling and dealing with a stiff penalty. Ryan Preece, Corey LaJoie, Todd Gilliland, Harrison Burton, Noah Gragson and Ty Dillon have never won.
Austin Cindric has 1 career win (50 races ago). Same for Michael McDowell (86 races ago). Austin Dillon has 1 top 5 all season. McDowell and Cindric have none. Erik Jones has two top 10’s all season.
In saying that, the points battle has actually been a fun one and could come down to the wire. For the regular season championship, Blaney leads Byron by only 13 points. Harvick is -22 and Truex Jr. -23.
At the bottom for the 16th and final spot, Daniel Suarez is leading Alex Bowman by six points. Ty Gibbs is just 15 points back.
In front of them is Bubba Wallace (+27).
Suarez finally got back in the top 10 on Sunday in Gateway and comes to the place that he scored his first win at last June. That was just his second top 10 finish in the last 12 races.
I’m also watching AJ Allmendinger. He’s had a dismal season (1 top 10 finish) but we know what he can do on road courses. It seems like these are his only chances of making it into the playoffs and with 2 in the next 3 weeks and 4 of the final 11, he has to find a victory in one of them.
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