TRACK HISTORY/DETROIT RACE TRENDS
This is an inaugural race so no trends to look at here specifically for the track.
- 3 of the 5 street course races a year ago were won from a front row starting spot.
- St. Pete this past year, was won from the second row (4th place).
- Long Beach this year was won from the pole.
- However, if strategy flips, street course races can be won further back too. 7 of the last 13 were won from a spot outside the Fast 6 with 6 of the last 11 fro 14th on back.
TRACK COMPARISONS/WHO’S BEEN GOOD ON THEM
If you go back to the start of the 2019 season, we’ve had 18 races on these tracks with 10 different winners. Josef Newgarden (4 wins), Scott Dixon (3 wins), Marcus Ericsson (3 wins) and Colton Herta (2 wins) are the only multi-time winners with 2 of Newgarden’s 4 wins coming in St. Pete.
The big teams are strong on them with Penske winning 7 of those last 18 races, Ganassi with 5 and Andretti with 4. Arrow McLaren SP is the only other team to have won.
12 of the top 13 starters belong to these camps.
Penske won 3 of the 5 last year with Ganassi and Scott Dixon taking the other two. Ganassi (Marcus Ericsson) is 1-for-2 this year with being winners in 3 of the last 4 while Andretti won the last time out in Long Beach.
Honda is 2-for-2 on street courses this season with taking 5 of the 6 podiums too. It went Ganassi-McLaren-Ganassi in St. Pete and Andretti-Andretti-Ganassi in Long Beach.
Right now, this is an Andretti vs. Ganassi battle on street courses.
In Long Beach, the two organizations swept the entire top five of the finishing order and had 6 of the top 8 finishers in general.
However, Penske has all 3 cars in the top seven of the starting lineup while Andretti is 3-12-17-24 too.
Strategy
Likely a two stopper as the other two street courses were. That is honestly all dependent on how long you can make the new green tires last. For St. Pete, the fall off was expected and showed early on to be more than the red tire (it’s predecessor). However, the race pace showed differently which quickly shut the door on any sort of three stop strategy.
With a two stopper, you can split this race really into thirds.
The overcut and undercut are things to watch for strategy plays. Do you get held up on your in or even out lap? Scott McLaughlin had that happen to him coming to his final stop in St. Pete. Do you avoid the danger zone by pitting early in the pit sequence just in case a caution occurs? Does that risk not play out well meaning you’ll have older/used tires in the end?
Top 5 Favorites
Alex Palou
Palou, would admit, that street courses used to be his Achilles Heel in this series.
“I’m really, really happy about that,” he said of his recent street course results. “Street courses, I think when I first joined INDYCAR, I just did like three races on street courses before joining INDYCAR, so I think it’s just experience and confidence. Yeah, getting more confidence every time, and hopefully we can keep on scoring good results on street courses.”
He had 3 podiums and 5 top 6’s in 5 tries on these tracks last season. This year, he was 8th in St. Pete and 5th in Long Beach. He enters having scored a top five finish in five straight races on the season too and starts on the pole. Palou was fourth in both practice sessions this weekend as well.
Scott Dixon
3rd in St. Pete and while he was last in Long Beach, he had a top five car before that incident with O’Ward. Dixon won the final two street course events a year ago. He also has five top seven finishes in six races run this year.
In the 2012 race here, but on the Belle Isle track, Dixon won. That was the first time there since 2008. In 2013, Dixon won the first trip back to Pocono since 1989. In that same season, Dixon won the first race back at Houston since 2007. In 2016, Dixon won the first race back at Phoenix since 2008. Also in 2016, Dixon won the first race back at Watkins Glen since 2010. Last year was the first trip to Toronto since 2019. Dixon won. In the first race back to downtown Detroit since 1991….Dixon? He was second and first respectively in both practice sessions and starts fourth.
Marcus Ericsson
3 of his 4 wins have come on street courses. He has 2 podiums in 2 street course races in 2023 as well. Ericsson has not finished outside the top 10 all season and rolls off sixth.
Romain Grosjean
Scored the pole for St. Pete and led a ton of laps. Was in contention to win before the late race incident while battling for the lead with Scott McLaughlin. He was runner-up in Long Beach. Andretti needs a bounceback race and this could be it. He starts third.
Scott McLaughlin
He won St. Pete last year but only 13th and 10th on street courses this year. His Barber win is his only top five all year. However, he starts second and in the previous five tries whiel starting on the front row, he finished either first or second.
Sleepers
Kyle Kirkwood
Was 4th in both St. Pete practices and made the Fast Six. He scored not only the pole in Long Beach, but the win as well. This car he’s driving nearly won this race last season in Belle Isle. While he crashed in qualifying and starts 12th, he was third in both practices as well.
Marcus Armstrong
In four starts, he’s finished in the top 11 in three of them. Ganassi has been the best team on street courses and the rookie starts 11th.
Alexander Rossi
He was one spot away (4th) from a podium finish in St. Pete and had a top 10 car in Long Beach before a late race mechanical failure. His teammate is good here and Rossi nearly won this race last year with Andretti. The momentum is building after a podium in the GMR Grand Prix and a fifth place run in the Indy 500. He starts 13th but we know street races could flip strategy.
Simon Pagenaud
Entering this weekend, Simon Pagenaud was having a rough start to this season. Marred back in 25th in points with a best result of 15th in Long Beach. He finished 25th in both races last month in Indianapolis and struggled to gain any momentum.
That could soon be changing.
Pagenaud worked his way up into the top 10 before being punted by Scott McLaughlin on Lap 192 last Sunday. That’s the only reason why he was 25th and not in a spot contending for maybe even a top 5.
In Detroit, Pagenaud was 13th and 10th in both practice sessions and backed that up with qualifying his No. 60 Dallara-Honda in eighth.
When scanning the top 13 starting spots, you have all three Penske’s, all 3 McLaren’s, all four Ganassi’s and 2 Andretti’s. The only one not?
Pagenaud.
He has a chance to do something special on Sunday.
David Malukas
Was worth a look for a driver scoring a top 10 in St. Pete and driving for a team known to go off strategy.
Top 5 Fades
Pato O’Ward
2nd in St. Pete and quickest in Long Beach before bad luck in qualifying and being overly aggressive in the race derailed his weekend. He’s a past Belle Isle winner and has three runner-up finishes this season alone. The only drawback is, he starts 10th.
Josef Newgarden
Newgarden has 4 street course wins in 4 seasons and being 16th, 1st, 4th, 10th and sixth on them last year. However, he was disappointing in St. Pete (17th) as well as Long Beach (9th). He starts fifth, but was only 15th and 21st in the pair of practices.
Will Power
7th and 6th this year on street courses. However, he won Belle Isle a year ago though too. The thing is, he only has one top five finish all season and starts seventh. Has a top 5 car, but not necessarily one fit for a podium either.
Colton Herta
He’s a street course ace. Unfortunately, he also finds trouble on these tracks too. Still, Herta was 20th in St. Pete and 4th in Long Beach though too and has four top 10 finishes in the last five races on the season. The thing is, he crashed in both practice (27th) and qualifying (24th) on Saturday.
Felix Rosenqvist
19th and 7th on street courses in 2023. He starts ninth.
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