Double Podiums Still For Red Bull?

This has been another dominating weekend out of the Oracle Red Bull Racing camp at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya in Spain. That though, is none too shocking.

This was a prime opportunity for both Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez to once again finish on the podium…again.

Verstappen was quickest in all three practice sessions. Perez was second and fourth respectively on Friday.

In qualifying, Verstappen won the pole. However, for a second straight race, Perez failed to make Q3. He’ll start 11th.

After looking like they were in a class all to themselves for Sunday’s race, Perez now leaves some doubt. The question now is, can they both finish on the podium?

The last five years in Spain, a team has put both cars on the podium each and every time. The thing is, Mercedes was that team in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021. Red Bull has done it once, but it was last year though.

The Red Bull tandem has gone 1-2 in four of the six races run this season and I can’t see Sergio Perez making the same mistake twice as he did last Saturday in Monaco.

Verstappen has finished third, second and first respectively in his last three Spain starts, has six podiums in his last seven there overall and has finished in the top two in EVERY race run this season.

Perez was fifth in 2020 and again in 2021 before finishing runner-up a year ago. He also has four top two finishes this season.

Red Bull has won 16 of the last 17 F1 races dating back to last season.

The thing is, since 2020, the furthest back someone started in order to finish in the top five of this race was eighth by Perez in 2021.

In 2020, the entire top five finished in the top five. In 2021, the top four starters finished in the top four spots. Last year, the only top five starter not to finish in the top five was the pole sitter.

That’s just to get in the top five. What about a podium?

Out of the last nine podium positions here, all started in the top five.

2020: 1st, 3rd, 2nd

2021: 1st, 2nd, 3rd

2022: 2nd, 5th, 4th

That’s why this is a relevant thing to watch.

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How Far Can Perez Rebound To?

If Max Verstappen wins his third straight F1 title, these last two weeks will be what we circle as far as how he did so.

Sergio Perez made a costly error in qualifying last Saturday in Monaco. He found the wall and a year after he won in Monaco, he started last. Perez only got up to 16th. A zero on the points board for a week while Max Verstappen scored the pole and race win, saw the points lead for the Dutch driver blossom into 39 points.

Now, after Verstappen being quickest in all three practice sessions and starting on the pole, Perez starts 11th.

Verstappen is virtually unbeatable in Spain already. The two-time defending world champion has finished on the podium in six of the last seven Spanish Grand Prix’s as well as having a top two finish in literally every race this season.

So, how much can Perez minimize the damage? Is he fighting for second place? Can he even get there and if he does, can he hold onto second?

Perez has four top two’s this year but was fifth and 16th in his other two starts. In Spain, he has three straight top five finishes with last year being runner-up.

If Verstappen dominates again, Perez can’t afford a finish worse than second if he wants any shot of a championship later.

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Who Can Take The Final Podium Spot? Is “Big 3” Era Over?

Sergio Perez (11th), George Russell (12th) and Charles LeClerc (19th) each failed to make Q3 in qualifying. As a result, it has opened the door drastically for someone new to snag a podium on Sunday in Spain.

Carlos Sainz Jr. has no podiums all season. He wasn’t in the top five in any of the two dry practice sessions on Friday. He’ll start second.

Lando Norris and his McLaren have looked like they have at best, the fifth quickest team out there in 2023. He thought he’d be in danger of being eliminated in Q1. Instead, he starts third.

For a weekend that we felt like it was looking initially that the Red Bull’s were likely taking 2 of the 3 spots on the podium, what happens now?

With 5 of the last 6 years seeing teammates do so here, it appears that this year it may not be the case.

In the past, it was always down to Red Bull vs. Ferrari vs. Mercedes for these spots. That’s since changed.

Red Bull-Ferrari-McLaren-Mercedes-Aston Martin-Alpine-Haas start 1-7.

Prior to this weekend, I would have thought it would have come down to Fernando Alonso vs. Lewis Hamilton then for the final spot with Red Bull 1-2.

Alonso has finished in the top four in literally every race this season with four third place results and a runner-up last week in Monaco.

Hamilton has won five of the last six years here.

Instead, Hamilton was marred midpack in practice and qualified fifth (now starting fourth) while Alonso was sixth and second respectively on Friday but starts eighth. Ferrari has also struggled. Sainz Jr. was 9th and 7th on Friday while Charles LeClerc was 8th and 6th himself.

Sainz did qualify second, but can he stay there? LeClerc rolls off 19th.

Hamilton has finished fifth, fifth, second, sixth, sixth and fourth respectively in 2023. George Russell was seventh, fourth, retired, eighth, fourth and fifth respectively himself.

It almost seems like Mercedes and Ferrari have fallen into the clutches of everyone else. It’s only Red Bull that’s distanced themselves from the pack.

Since 2014, Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari have won 184 of the 188 races. The only four they didn’t win was Pierre Gasly (Alpha Tauri) in the 2020 Italian Grand Prix, Sergio Perez (Racing Point) also in 2020 at the Sakhir Grand Prix, Esteban Ocon (Alpine) in 2021 at Hungary and Daniel Ricciardo (McLaren) in Italy in 2021.

That’s it.

Mercedes won just once a year ago. Ferrari won four times. Red Bull 17. Red Bull is 6-for-6 this year.

Ferrari was winless in 2020 and again in 2021.

It appears now that the Alpine group may be poised to take third now instead on Sunday and that they and Aston Martin may be P2 and P3 soon in the F1 pecking order.

Pierre Gasly was third and 10th on Friday with Esteban Ocon, coming off of a Monaco podium, being fifth in both sessions on Friday himself.

Gasly qualified fourth and Ocon in seventh. Ocon was later penalized for two infractions and dropped to 10th.

Alpine-Renault finished fourth in the 2023 constructors. This year, things were starting off tense. Out of the opening four races, they had just three finishes combined in the points and those finishes were 9th (Pierre Gasly) in Bahrain and 8th (Esteban Ocon) and 9th (Gasly) in Saudi Arabia. They finished P13-P14 in Australia and P14-P15 in Baku.

However, double points in Miami (P8-P9) and Monaco (P3-P7) has them with some momentum again. They come to Spain fifth in the constructors trailing Ferrari by 55. If they can keep chipping away at that deficit, then there’s no reason to believe that they can end 2023 similar to how they were in 2022 and have some massive momentum for the 2024 season.

That’s why keeping the momentum is so big this weekend in the Spanish Grand Prix.

Ocon has finished fifth, 16th, 13th, ninth and seventh respectively there. Gasly was 19th, sixth, ninth, 10th and 13th respectively.

The thing is, can Alpine and Aston Martin capitalize on Perez, Russell and LeClerc’s misfortunes in qualifying, or does Sainz and Hamilton join Verstappen on the podium making this still a Red Bull-Mercedes-Ferrari podium?