TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

Not much history here to base many trends off of. Last year’s race was the inaugural event. Joey Logano started 7th but led only 22 total laps in victory including all in the final 38 circuits. He was 7th in the opening stage but scored no points in Stage 2.

Just 1 of the top 8 starters even started in the top five.

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Favorites

Kyle Larson (+450)

Was the top Hendrick finisher here last year (12th), but in Darlington, he was so strong and going towards a win before Ross Chastain took him out on a late race restart while leading.

William Byron (+650)

Joey Logano won last year’s spring Darlington race and won here a month later. With the two tracks being similar in terms of shape, can Byron who won in Darlington last month do the same? The Hendrick Motorsports driver has won three times already this season and has five straight Top-7 finishes on the season too.

Martin Truex Jr. (+1000)

He led 42 laps in a sixth-place finish last year. He’s also really good at Darlington and Loudon too. Truex dominated the first two stages in Darlington last month. Truex Jr has five Top-8 finishes in the last seven races on the season too.

Denny Hamlin (+1000)

He may have only finished 34th, but he qualified sixth and was taken out early by Ross Chastain. That’s why his odds are where they are. He has three Top-5 finishes in the last six races on the season too.

Christopher Bell (+1000)

He won last year’s race at Loudon, was in the top six in both Darlington races a year ago and ninth here. He was 14th in Darlington but had Top-5 speed.

Tyler Reddick (+1200)

He’s good on tracks like this and the car he’s now driving was third a year ago. While this hasn’t been a strong stretch of races lately, Reddick can pick up a win on Sunday. He enters on the heels of a Top-5 on Monday in Charlotte.

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Sleepers

Kyle Busch (+1100)

He led a race-high 66 laps a year ago in a runner-up effort. Busch was also seventh in Darlington last month too which is why I think he can pick up a win on Sunday. He was sixth on Monday in Charlotte too.

Ross Chastain (+1200)

He had a fast car in both Darlington races as well as scoring a Top-10 (eighth) here in 2022. He was also in the Top-2 for most of the day in Darlington last month as well and crashed late with Kyle Larson while making an overzealous move.

Kevin Harvick (+1200)

33rd last season should place him on the fades list, however, Harvick was second in Darlington last month too.

Bubba Wallace (+2800)

Boy is he heating up. Counting the All-Star race, Wallace has four Top-5 finishes in the last four races run.

Brad Keselowski (+3000)

What a stretch he’s on right now. Keselowski has three Top-8 finishes in the last five points paying races.

Chris Buescher (+4000)

Zane Smith filled into this ride and did a great job here a year ago. Buescher has four Top-10 finishes in the last four races run on the season as well.

Aric Almirola (+4000)

Gateway is also similar to Loudon and that’s a place Almirola last won at in 2021. He was also in the Top-5 here (5th) last season as well.

Justin Haley (+30000)

He was strong in Darlington the last two years (3rd, 8th) and turned that into a Top-15 finish (14th) here last year.

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Fades

Joey Logano (+1200)

Won the inaugural race so why not the second? He won the spring Darlington race last year and turned that into a Gateway victory. The reason why I don’t trust him this year is the fact that he finished 18th in Darlington and Ford’s have proved to struggle on tracks like this in 2023.

Ryan Blaney (+1200)

He was fourth in the inaugural race a year ago and has five Top-10 finishes in the last six points paying races including a three of which in the Top-3. He was ninth in Darlington and won on Monday in the ‘600. However, it took him 59 races between wins. Do you really expect him to win twice in six days? I mean he’s only won more than one race in a season just once (2021). That’s a lot to ask of him.

AJ Allmendinger (+3000)

Can he turn last year’s 10th place run into a victory? My fear is he only has two Top-15 finishes all season.

Austin Cindric (+6500)

Penske had a great day a year ago. Cindric started on the front row, led 26 laps, won the first stage and finished 11th. The problem is, Cindric has finished 19th or worse in seven of the last eight races on the season.

Erik Jones (+20000)

He was seventh a year ago and like Logano, won at Darlington (Southern 500) too. However, he has just two Top-10’s all season too.