Eric Smith

5 things I’m watching for Sunday’s AWS Spanish Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET, ESPN)

Double Podiums

This could be another dominating Oracle Red Bull Racing performance this weekend at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya in Spain. In fact, this is a prime opportunity for both Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez to finish on the podium…again.

The last five years in Spain, a team has put both cars on the podium each and every time. The thing is, Mercedes was that team in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021. Red Bull has done it once, but it was last year though.

The Red Bull tandem has gone 1-2 in four of the six races run this season and I can’t see Sergio Perez making the same mistake twice as he did last Saturday in Monaco.

Max Verstappen has finished third, second and first respectively in his last three Spain starts, has six podiums in his last seven there overall and has finished in the top two in EVERY race run this season.

Perez was fifth in 2020 and again in 2021 before finishing runner-up a year ago. He also has four top two finishes this season.

Red Bull has won 16 of the last 17 F1 races dating back to last season.

Can Perez Rebound?

Sergio Perez made a costly error in qualifying last Saturday in Monaco. He found the wall and a year after he won in Monaco, he started last. Perez only got up to 16th. A zero on the points board for a week while Max Verstappen scored the pole and race win, saw the points lead for the Dutch driver blossom into 39 points.

Verstappen has finished on the podium in six of the last seven Spanish Grand Prix’s as well as having a top two finish in literally every race this season.

Perez has four top two’s this year but was fifth and 16th in his other two starts. In Spain, he has three straight top five finishes with last year being runner-up.

If Verstappen dominates again, Perez can’t afford a finish worse than second if he wants any shot of a championship later.

Spain is a place that the Mercedes duo could move up the F1 standings. Photo Credit: FIA Media Site

Mercedes

It’s been a nice fight back for the Mercedes camp to come into Sunday’s AWS Spanish Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET, ESPN) third in the constructors points. They’re just one point out of second trailing the Aston Martin Aramco Cognizant F1 Team.

Fernando Alonso has finished in the top four in literally every race this season with four third place results and a runner-up last week in Monaco. His teammate, Lance Stroll, has only finished in the points just three times.

With Mercedes finding more and more speed, they were on the cusp of remarkably being the second-best team in F1 again.

However, this weekend has been a struggle.

On Friday, Lewis Hamilton was only 12th and 11th respectively in practice. His teammate, George Russell, was just 10th and eighth.

Coming into this weekend, Hamilton had finished fifth, fifth, second, sixth, sixth and fourth respectively in 2023. George Russell was seventh, fourth, retired, eighth, fourth and fifth respectively himself.

Mercedes has taken the fastest race lap in two of the last three races on the season. They’ve also taken the fastest race lap in Spain in two of the last four years too.

On a fast track in Baku, George Russell was quickest last month. Valtteri Bottas, the second Mercedes car, was quickest here in 2020.

While I expect the Red Bull’s to snag two of the three podium spots, I felt like the other could have seen at least Mercedes in contention. So far, they’re far from it.

The Ferrari’s have struggled this season with one combined podium. Russell has been solid, but he’s not been on the podium at all this year either. Hamilton was runner-up in a closer comparison track in Australia and fifth in Bahrain.

Hamilton has won five of the last six Spanish Grand Prix races.

That’s why this lack of pace is puzzling.

Spanish Duo

Carlos Sainz Jr. has struggled this season. He sits sixth in points with finishes of fourth, sixth, 12th, fifth, fifth and eighth respectively. Can he get going on Sunday?

In eight career starts in his home race, Sainz Jr’s stats look a lot like this season. He’s finished ninth, sixth, seventh, seventh, eighth, sixth, seventh and fourth respectively.

The better chance of a win may come at the Spanish veteran of Alonso. A podium in five of the six races run this season including a runner-up last Sunday.

This will be Alonso’s 20th career start at this track and you can rest assured he wants to win in front of his home crowd. This is the best chance he’s had to do so since arguably 2013 at Ferrari.

He’s finished in the points in just two of his last six Spanish Grand Prix’s, but both occurred in the last three tries. However, his best result is eighth (2018) in that span.

Can he capitalize on Sunday?

Alpine Revival

Alpine-Renault finished fourth in the 2023 constructors. This year, things were starting off tense. Out of the opening four races, they had just three finishes combined in the points and those finishes were 9th (Pierre Gasly) in Bahrain and 8th (Esteban Ocon) and 9th (Gasly) in Saudi Arabia. They finished P13-P14 in Australia and P14-P15 in Baku.

However, double points in Miami (P8-P9) and Monaco (P3-P7) has them with some momentum again. They come to Spain fifth in the constructors trailing Ferrari by 55. If they can keep chipping away at that deficit, then there’s no reason to believe that they can end 2023 similar to how they were in 2022 and have some massive momentum for the 2024 season.

That’s why keeping the momentum is so big this weekend in the Spanish Grand Prix.

Ocon has finished fifth, 16th, 13th, ninth and seventh respectively there. Gasly was 19th, sixth, ninth, 10th and 13th respectively.

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